TARIFFS IN FLUX, INDUSTRY WOMEN UNITE, LOVE FOR SMALL BUSINESS
By Jay Townley
06 13 25 “Survey: Most retailers raise prices, rebuild supply chain in response to tariffs.” Chain Store Age CST: “Many (71 percent) retailers have switched suppliers from higher tariff to lower tariff countries. Most retailers are raising prices, moving production and product sourcing, and taking other actions in response to the Trump Administration’s fluctuating tariffs. More than three-quarters (76 percent) of respondents said their businesses had increased the price of goods they sell to mitigate the cost of the new and expected tariffs, according to a survey of U.S. e-commerce professionals by commerce protection provider Signifyd. The survey, conducted by Talker Research, shows that on average, retailers are passing along 51 percent of the cost of Trump’s import taxes. Overall, the surveyed merchants, in big numbers, have made big moves in the face of tariffs — including layoffs, store closings, moving production and product sources, and rebalancing their inventory. The survey also indicates that retailers with online businesses have been scrambling since before the 2024 election to brace for higher import taxes.” HPS ANALYSIS: Retailing, whether very large or extremely small, is a difficult business. Costs imposed on the business have to be paid for before a retail business can make a profit. A new cost, like an import tariff, will be paid and becomes an expense that has to be covered by the gross profit the retail business makes on the sale of its merchandise or services, or the combination. Every survey of retailers will show the same thing. Costs have to be covered by gross profit to realize a net profit. This more often than not means raising retail prices to cover costs sufficient to generate a profit. Retailers that do not will go out of business.
06 17 25 “PeopleForBikes’ executive fly-In brings industry leaders to Washington, D.C.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News BRAIN: "On Thursday, June 12, PeopleForBikes convened 17 top bicycle industry leaders in Washington, D.C., for its latest Executive Fly-In, part of the organization’s ongoing efforts to advocate for trade reform. The group met with key members of Congress and agency staff to call for tariff relief, a transparent exclusion process, and policy incentives that support domestic bicycle assembly and strengthen global supply chains on behalf of the U.S. bicycle industry. The fly-in coincided with the introduction of the bipartisan U.S. Bicycle Production and Assembly Act, a major milestone in trade policy for the bicycle industry. The legislation, shaped through months of collaboration within PeopleForBikes’ Domestic Manufacturing and Supply Chain Committee, would eliminate tariffs on essential components used in U.S. bicycle assembly, addressing one of the industry's biggest cost barriers.” HPS ANALYSIS: There is no question personal visits by constituents to a member of Congress are an effective way to get a position and a specific “ask” communicated. Personal congressional and administration visits take a lot of time and effort to arrange, are expensive, and consume a lot of the time of everyone involved. 17 top bicycle industry leaders, plus the staff and professionals required to make everything happen for an Executive Fly-In to our nation’s capital is a big thing and very important, but we can’t help but wonder if it would have been a lot more effective if it had included, or at least coordinated with, specialty bicycle retailers from the states and districts of the members of Congress who were visited?
06 17 25 “U.S. retail sales drop for second month as tariff anxiety sets in.” Bloomberg: “U.S. retail sales fell for a second straight month in May, suggesting anxiety over tariffs and personal finances prompted consumers to pull back after an early-year spending rush. The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, decreased 0.9 percent, the most since the start of the year, and was restrained by autos, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday. That followed a downwardly revised 0.1 percent drop in April, marking the first back-to-back decline since the end of 2023. Other data out Tuesday pointed to cooler demand across sectors of the economy. Industrial production decreased in May for the second time in three months, reflecting weaker utility output and soft manufacturing. Confidence among homebuilders in June slumped to the lowest since the end of 2022, as would-be buyers stay on the sidelines. In the retail sales report, seven of the 13 categories posted drops, dragged down by building materials, gasoline, and motor vehicles, which came after a buying spree in anticipation of tariffs. Spending at restaurants and bars, the only service-sector category in the retail report, fell by the most since early 2023. After loading up on purchases for cars and other goods to front-run President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the figures suggest consumers are now pulling back spending. While the duties so far haven’t boosted U.S. inflation, consumer sentiment is still shaky, and household finances have worsened amid a persistent rise in the cost of living and high interest rates.” HPS ANALYSIS: While geopolitical events, like the 12-Day War, took some of the pressure and anxiety off tariffs, there is still a great deal of concern about the economy and what the future holds for individual household incomes and expenses. The “Big” budget and tax bill has finally passed, and while we are waiting for the real economic effect to impact families and individuals, tariffs have jumped back into this summer’s public spotlight, along with more uncertainty and anxiety. While Wall Street is baking geopolitical uncertainty into the markets, individual shoppers are being more cautious and conservative on their discretionary expenses going forward. At the end of the day, it is consumer spending that will get the full attention of the good-old boys on Wall Street and in D.C.
06 18 25: “CPSC members reinstated after judge rules firings unlawful.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “A federal judge reinstated three Consumer Product Safety Commissioners fired in May by the Trump administration after they objected to staff cuts and sued nearly two weeks later for unlawful dismissal. Public Citizen filed the civil lawsuit on behalf of Mary T. Boyle, Richard Trumka Jr., and Alexander Hoehn-Saric. The suit said that under the Consumer Product Safety Act, commissioners can be removed by the President before the end of their terms only ‘for neglect of duty or malfeasance in office, but for no other cause’ as stated by Congress. ‘Today's opinion reaffirms that the President is not above the law,’ said Nick Sansone, Public Citizen Litigation Group lead counsel, on June 13. ‘Congress structured the CPSC as an independent agency so that the safety of American consumers wouldn't be subject to political whims and industry pressure. The court's ruling upholds that sound legislative choice. We are thrilled that our clients can get back to work, keeping us safe from hazardous products.’ Judge Matthew J. Maddox ruled that the Democratic commissioners ‘suffered irreparable harm’ by not being able to perform their roles for the past month. During that time, the remaining two commissioners, Acting Chairman Peter A. Feldman and Douglas Dziak, voted to withdraw the previously approved by a 3-2 vote the e-bike and lithium-ion battery testing standards proposal from public comment. Other CPSC actions performed during the trio's absence included the 2026 budget request to Congress, which is calling for a restructuring of the agency, reducing funding by 10.5 percent, and staffing by 14 percent.” HPS ANALYSIS: The Department of Justice (DOJ) immediately appealed the decision that reinstated the three Democratic CPSC Commissioners, and lost. While the DOJ has filed another appeal that will eventually see this case before the Supreme Court, CPSC is up and running, and battling both the current Administration and Congress. HPS can’t find anyone who will actually bet money on the mandatory e-bike and lithium-ion battery testing proposal from CPSC moving forward before the three commissioners are unemployed again. We haven’t given up all hope, and we also are working hard at supporting the development of voluntary industry e-bike and lithium-ion battery testing and certification standards.
06 18 25: “Fed holds interest rates for fourth time despite tariff turmoil.” British Broadcasting Corporation BBC: “People and businesses in the U.S. have faced a whirlwind of policy change in recent months. But one thing has remained fixed: borrowing costs set by the U.S. central bank. The Federal Reserve stuck with that strategy on Wednesday, leaving its key interest rate unchanged, even as officials' expectations for the economy worsened. The decision marked the fourth in a row without action, keeping the bank's influential lending rate hovering around 4.3 percent, where it has stood since December. That came despite forecasts from policymakers suggesting they expect slower growth, higher unemployment, and faster inflation than they did just a few months ago. Typically, the Fed lowers borrowing costs if it believes the economy is struggling and raises them if prices start to rise too quickly. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2 percent target, coming in at 2.4 percent in May. President Donald Trump has repeatedly called on the Fed to cut interest rates, arguing, in part, that the problem has faded. But Fed officials, who are empowered to make policy independent of the White House, have said they will make decisions based on the data. They have said they want more information about the extent to which tariffs and other policy changes will drive up prices, slow the U.S. economy, or both, before lowering rates. In the rate announcement, the bank said that the economy overall remained ‘solid.’ But it released projections showing that policymakers, on average, are expecting growth to slow to 1.4 percent this year, down from the 1.7 percent they were forecasting in March. The forecasts call for inflation of roughly 3 percent, up from the 2.7 percent predicted in March and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5 percent.” HPS ANALYSIS: The good news is that the Federal Reserve and its chairman are standing firm and not giving in to the increasing pressure from the President. The Fed says it will watch the data very carefully and will only take action based on the facts. Good on them. Let’s hope they can hold out and maintain their integrity.
06 18 25: “Spontaneous fire hazard causes worldwide recall of Santa Cruz e-bike model.” Bike Europe: “A global recall has been issued for the Santa Cruz Heckler 9 bike model after multiple battery fires were reported. The Santa Cruz-based company, a subset of the Dutch transport conglomerate Pon Holdings, first issued the recall in May, warning customers that the e-bike's lithium-ion battery can overheat and pose a fire hazard. According to a listing by the United States Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), ‘Consumers should immediately stop using the recalled electric bicycles and disconnect the battery from the bike and charger.’ Up to 1,728 Heckler 9 e-bikes sold in Europe are potentially affected by the recall, a Santa Cruz spokesperson told Bike Europe, adding that riders should check their battery serial numbers on the Santa Cruz website to confirm if they’re affected or not. An additional 2,850 units of the bicycle sold in the U.S., and about 550 in Canada, are reportedly affected by the recall. The CPSC said it has received three reports of fires, including some property damage, but that no injuries have been reported thus far. Santa Cruz says the e-bikes were sold at independent bicycle dealers around the world, and the recall was issued worldwide, but the European Commission’s Safety Gate system has yet to report the recall. But Bike Europe can confirm that over 1,500 e-bikes manufactured before 2023 and sold in Europe could be affected. Riders are advised to disconnect the battery from the e-bike and charger immediately, using the instructions listed in the recall. They can then follow the steps to register for a free replacement battery with Santa Cruz. Santa Cruz and the CPSC advise users not to dispose of batteries in household waste, but instead in accordance with local and state regulations.” HPS ANALYSIS: We have been following this recall carefully, and now that it has gone international, we feel it appropriate to peel back the unspoken issue of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR). Santa Cruz and its parent company Pon.Bike are conducting this recall in cooperation with the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) in the U.S., but because there is no EPR, many owners of Santa Cruz Heckler 9 e-bikes will find that there simply are no local or state regulations that they can follow to safely dispose of their compromised lithium-ion batteries that are the subject of this recall. HPS and the NBDA discovered this harsh reality, and advised NBDA member bike shops to turn away Heckler 9 owners if they find that there are no local or state regulations for the safe disposition of the compromised lithium-ion batteries. The editorial: “Why marketplaces must take responsibility for product recalls” by Pat Cunnane, which follows below, makes an excellent case for (1) voluntary industry standards for lithium-ion batteries that include safe product recall protocols and (2) voluntary industry Extended Producer Responsibility protocols. HPS urges Pon.Bike to join with the NBDA in the U.S. to make both voluntary industry standards a reality in the best safety interest of both the industry and consumers.
06 20 25: “High Costs Have Ended America’s Love Affair With Cars.” The Wall Street Journal: “Americans are losing that car-loving feeling. Most of the heartache is about money. I think of myself not so much as a car reviewer as an intimacy coordinator. Four out of five American households depend on an automobile to get to work, to get the kids to school, to go wherever. The typical driver spends about an hour a day in the car, says the AAA — more face time than many of us spend with our families. A good relationship starts with a good match. Lately, though, Americans have been losing that car-loving feeling. Actually, they’re at the dish-throwing stage. Light-vehicle sales have fallen by about 1.7 million a year since 2016, reflecting the number of younger consumers declining the pleasures of ownership. Millions more remained trapped in toxic relationships with abusive elders. The average age of passenger cars on the road is currently 14.5 years, according to S&P Global’s data. Most of the yelling is about money. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total cost to own and operate an automobile averaged a frightening $12,296 in 2024, roughly 30 percent higher than a decade ago. Driving the numbers are new-vehicle prices, now averaging $48,883, according to Cox Automotive’s latest data. With middle-income buyers priced out of new cars, demand for used cars has strengthened, now averaging around $25,500. Go ahead, throw a dish. It’ll make you feel better. Among the major stressors: car insurance. Lexis-Nexis Risk Solutions’ annual report found average insurance costs rose 10 percent in 2024, after soaring 15 percent in 2023. Full-coverage policies now average $2,680 annually, up 12 percent from June 2024, says Bankrate. And whatever you do, don’t mention depreciation. In 2024, the AAA calculated that the average new vehicle loses an eye-watering $4,680 in value every year, over the first five years. Edmunds reported that in the last quarter of 2024, one in four consumers were underwater on a car loan, meaning that they owed more than the vehicle’s market value. The spike in personal transportation is a budget buster. Many thousands of families face being forced out of their cars and into what is effectively a second-class citizenship. What are we supposed to tell a generational workforce that is going broke just getting to work? Take one of America’s fine new trains?” HPS ANALYSIS: There has been this growing movement among young Americans who do not want to drive an automobile or own one for environmental reasons, and it is becoming more apparent that this movement is gaining momentum for financial reasons. This is an opportunity for the bicycle business, if we embrace it thoughtfully and very strategically. Specialty bicycle retailers (bike shops) are absolutely best positioned in the American market to take full advantage of the end of the love affair with the car. Strategically, bike shops need to not only provide the right products, they also need to provide the safety and riding education, service and maintenance, accessories, and a support community.
06 23 25: “Giant Group May bike shipments crater nearly 30 percent.” Sporting Goods Business SGB: “Giant Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (Giant Group) saw May 2025 monthly bike shipments crater nearly 30 percent year-over-year (y/y), the second consecutive monthly double-digit decline. April shipments declined 17.1 percent. The trend line has been negative for most of the year so far, except for a big month for the manufacturer in February when shipment sales volume jumped 30 percent y/y, thought to be due primarily to pull-ahead shipments as the market reacted to tariffs that took effect in March as U.S. brands and factories across Asia moved shipments up to ensure pricing. May shipments declined 29.3 percent y/y to NT$5.06 billion, pushing the five-month year-to-date period to a decline of 8.3 percent y/y to NT$27.6 billion. The May decline builds on a 7.3 percent decline in May 2024.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS has maintained for years that the bicycle industry trade press treats the big brands, or big advertisers, with kid gloves, and this article from Sporting Goods Business SGB proves the point. It is a straight-up reporting of the facts about Giant Group's month of May bike shipments cratering nearly 30 percent. And there you have it. I was talking to a colleague in Europe last week, and he said that any bike brand that tells you they are doing great in this market are blowing smoke. The attendees at the NBDA Retailer Summit this past May 20-22 in Bentonville heard it like it is, and discussed the reality of what we can do together to weather this storm and plan for the new future.
06 25 25: “China Is tracking down its rare-earth experts — and taking away passports.” The Wall Street Journal: “China has told companies in its rare-earth industry to give the government lists of employees with technical expertise, aiming to ensure they don’t divulge trade secrets to foreigners. The queries point to the growing geopolitical significance of China’s control over the materials, which are widely used in cars, electronics, and weapons, and stand at the center of the U.S.-China trade war. According to people familiar with the queries, China’s Ministry of Commerce in recent weeks asked rare-earth companies based in China for personnel lists that include specialist employees’ specific expertise, education, research background, and personal information. The goal, the people said, is to develop a formal catalog of Chinese nationals with rare earth expertise and keep tabs on these employees to make sure they don’t travel abroad and reveal secrets. The lists include those in upstream roles, such as processing rare earths, and those in downstream roles, such as those using the processed minerals to make rare-earth magnets. The magnets are used in automobiles, wind turbines, drones, and jet fighters. One of the people said some experts at Chinese companies have been asked to turn in their passports to their companies or local authorities, to ensure they don’t make any unauthorized trips. China already requires government officials and employees of state-owned companies to turn in travel documents and apply for approval to travel abroad. China is the world’s largest miner and processor of rare earths, and it makes around 90 percent of the world’s rare-earth magnets. With trade tensions heating up, China in April established a new system for licensing the export of rare earths and rare-earth magnets. That has constricted the global trade in magnets, worrying Western car and electronics companies and leading to some temporary closures at factories dependent on Chinese supplies.” HPS ANALYSIS: The U.S.-China trade negotiations recently in London, following up on the framework agreed a month earlier in Switzerland, shined a bright light on rare earths and magnets. For those of you who don’t think this is an issue for the bicycle business, consider that many electric e-bike motors incorporate magnets. Keeping in mind that the trade framework agreed between the U.S. and China included a six-month agreement about rare earths and the permits issued to U.S. companies, which means the two super-powers will be back at the negotiating table in six months, and you can understand why China wants to know who its rare earth “experts” are, and make sure the U.S., or other countries can’t poach them. Also, keep in mind that mining rare earths is dirty and not environmentally friendly, and China has developed the processing side of the equation well ahead of the U.S.
06 25 25: “NBDA launches ‘Women in the Bicycle Industry’ (WIBI) program to empower, connect, and celebrate women across the cycling industry.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “The National Bicycle Dealers Association (NBDA) is proud to announce the official launch of Women in the Bicycle Industry (WIBI) – a powerful, multi-faceted initiative designed to support, elevate, and connect women working in all areas of the cycling industry. With an emphasis on mentorship, professional development, community building, and celebration, WIBI will serve as a cornerstone for building equity, increasing retention, and creating new opportunities for women in retail, supply, education, advocacy, product development, and more. ‘WIBI is about creating intentional space for women to thrive, lead, and shape the future of our industry together,’ said NBDA programs developer Megan Schmidt. Whitney Tabaian, president of Mike's Bikes, commented: ‘At Mike's Bikes, we believe the future of the cycling industry depends on empowering everyone who shapes it. The Women in the Bicycle Industry program is more than a platform; it's a powerful step toward a more inclusive, connected, and opportunity-rich future. We're proud to support this initiative and the women who are leading our industry forward.’ ‘The bicycle industry benefits from a wide range of perspectives, and not only supporting but championing women across all roles is essential to its growth,’ commented Brett Lang, co-founder of WIBI Sponsor Ikeono. ‘When we invest in a more inclusive and equal industry, we not only create better opportunities but also foster stronger, more resilient businesses and communities. Ensuring that women have a seat at the table isn't just a social responsibility, it's a smart, necessary step toward a more innovative and representative cycling industry.’’’ HPS ANALYSIS: A women’s initiative in the American bicycle business is long, long overdue. Congratulations to the NBDA for taking the initiative and to the sponsors for stepping up to help make WIBI happen. Women are and have been an essential component of the American bicycle business, and are more than equal to their male counterparts. Bike shops that I have worked with have heard my advice that they have a women as a greeter, whose job it is to make shoppers feel welcome, assess them and their needs, and direct them to the associate who can help them. Women, from my experience and observations, make better managers than men, and are much more attuned to the needs of people, both employees and customers. Time to let the other half rule.
06 26 25: “CIE and CONEBI merge to strengthen advocacy for European bicycle industry.” Bike Europe: “The Confederation of the European Bicycle Industry (CONEBI) and Cycling Industries Europe (CIE) have signed a Letter of Intent to advance the merger of the two associations. Delivered as a milestone for the European bicycle industry, ‘this step reflects a shared vision to amplify the voice of the European cycling industry to lead the continent's mobility and industrial transformation,’ it was announced. The Letter of Intent, signed at Eurobike 2025, marks the next step toward merging the two organisations representing the cycling industry’s interests in Brussels. Despite rumoured attempts in the past to merge the two organisations, it appears that this time it is for real. The merged organisation, with a new name, will be in place by 1 January 2026 and based in Brussels. More coherent positions: ‘The merger reflects a broader shared strategic commitment by the organisations to turn the potential of cycling into investment and real impact on European transport and industrial policy, with more coherent positions,’ the statement announcing the merger reads. ‘By bringing individual companies and national industry associations under one roof, the merged organisation will provide a better platform for its current and future members to tackle challenges and grab opportunities.’ The task was given to newly appointed CEO of CONEBI-CIE, Paul Walsh, to announce the merger on the 2nd day of Eurobike in Frankfurt Germany in front of press and members of the associations. Quick to push forward, he said that the next two months will involve a brainstorming session across the industry to determine clear and actionable goals to focus on. ‘We need Brussels to look through the lens of a growing sector, so we need to be clear on that,’ Walsh told the audience. The new organisation’s mission will be to represent the cycling industry at the European level and work on a policy framework that scales the sector's impact and supports cycling's growth across the continent. ‘Merging CIE and CONEBI is a step that allows us to align and speak with one voice at a time when cycling matters more than ever for Europe’s mobility and industrial goals,’ said Tony Grimaldi, president of Cycling Industries Europe (CIE) during the announcement. ‘We are sending a clear and powerful message: the cycling industry is united and ready to lead the mobility and clean industrial transition.’" HPS ANALYSIS: This is a very big deal for the European bicycle industry and potentially, for the global bicycle industry. The merger of The Confederation of the European Bicycle Industry (CONEBI) and Cycling Industries Europe (CIE) means ONE voice in Brussels, which means one voice for the European Bicycle Industry in the capital of the European Union of 27 nations. It will also give the European Bicycle Industry the opportunity to merge data collection, research, and standards. HPS will be following the development of the New United European Cycling Industry with great interest.
06 26 25: “Guest Editorial: Why marketplaces must take responsibility for product recalls.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News, by Pat Cunnane: “The convenience of online marketplaces like Amazon has revolutionized how we shop, offering an unparalleled array of products at our fingertips. Yet, beneath this veneer of limitless choice lies a significant and dangerous flaw: When a product sold by a third-party seller proves hazardous, these platforms too often dodge the responsibility for recalls, leaving consumers vulnerable and recalls ineffective. The ‘loophole’ that historically allowed marketplace giants to sidestep accountability stems from their legal argument that they are merely ‘platforms’ or ‘intermediaries,’ not the direct ‘sellers,’ ‘manufacturers,’ nor ‘distributors’ of those products. This traditional interpretation of product liability laws, designed for a brick-and-mortar world, allowed them to claim they were just providing a virtual venue for transactions, much like a classifieds section. This stance has, for too long, created a gap in consumer safety. Importantly, marketplace retailers charge the sellers a fee, making a profit from each sale made on their platform. This isn't a theoretical problem; it's a daily reality for consumers and regulators. When a faulty e-bike battery or a defective helmet — critical safety items — is sold by a third-party, tracing the liable party often becomes an impossible quest. Sellers disappear, are based overseas, or are simply untraceable or uncooperative with the CPSC, leaving consumers with dangerous goods and no recourse.” HPS ANALYSIS: While we recognize that Pat Cunnane is focusing his editorial remarks on Amazon and the DTC sellers who deny they are wholesalers or retailers, and therefore not in the chain of legal responsibility for product safety, product liability or product standards, we applaud his clear message that marketplaces must take responsibility for product recalls. Amazon and the other DTC sellers are only one of a number of bicycle and e-bike marketplaces, including the bike shop marketplace, that have to take responsibility, including Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) which is inclusive of end-of-life and recalls. This responsibility includes the safe handling and disposition of lithium-ion batteries at the end of their life and when they are the subject of a voluntary or mandatory recall.
06 26 25: “Survey: Here's how consumers, small businesses are preparing for tariffs.” Chain Store Age CSA: “More than four-in-five (84 percent) of consumers worry that tariffs will drive up the cost of everyday goods. Consumers are making moves to prepare for potential future tariff-related price hikes, while small business owners are also bracing for impact. Over a third (36 percent) of Americans have made a recent purchase specifically to avoid price hikes, while 20 percent have made a larger or more impulsive purchase than usual out of fear of future price increases, reveals a new survey from CouponFollow. One-in-10 consumers are buying big-ticket items sooner than they planned in order to avoid price increases, including vacations (25 percent), new appliances/electronics (23 percent) and new cars/vehicles (20 percent) on hold. More than four-in-five (84 percent) of consumers worry that tariffs will drive up the cost of everyday goods, and a nearly identical share (83 percent) don't believe businesses only raise prices when it's necessary due to tariffs. Groceries (79 percent), household goods (46 percent), gas and energy (42 percent), and electronics (36 percent) are the categories that consumers surveyed by CouponFollow expect to become the most expensive due to tariffs. On the business side, 37 percent of small business owners say they don't feel prepared to explain price increases to their customers, while two-thirds (66 percent) expect tariffs to affect their operations in the next 12 months, and 94 percent anticipate a negative impact. Just over half (51 percent) of small business owners say their customers have become more price-sensitive in the past six months. More than six-in-10 (64 percent) of small business owners have yet to make any changes in response to tariff concerns, but others have taken steps, including stocking up on inventory early (20 percent), adjusting pricing ahead of increases (14 percent) and communicating pricing changes to customers. More than half (55 percent) of small business owners say that tariffs on imported goods will be harmful for businesses and consumers, while 22% said that it depends on the industry. Nearly one-in-five (18 percent) said that tariffs are a necessary tool to protect American industries, while 7 are unsure or have no strong opinion.” HPS ANALYSIS: This is a very interesting survey, and we are specifically interested in the responses from Small Business Owners: 37 percent of small business owners say they don't feel prepared to explain price increases to their customers, while two-thirds (66 percent) expect tariffs to affect their operations in the next 12 months, and 94 percent anticipate a negative impact. More than six-in-10 (64 percent) of small business owners have yet to make any changes in response to tariff concerns, but others have taken steps, including stocking up on inventory early (20 percent), adjusting pricing ahead of increases (14 percent), and communicating pricing changes to customers. Small business owners have just been given about 20 more days, from July 9 to August 1, to make changes in response to import tariffs. The original deadline for imposition of the reciprocal tariffs has been moved out to August, and HPS advises bike shops to consult with their suppliers and the NBDA to help craft a strategic business plan to communicate the changes, including any price changes that the imposition of tariffs will lead to.
06 27 25: “California cops are teaching kids to ride electric bikes,” electrek: “Electric bikes have exploded in popularity – and so have the risks. In Huntington Beach, California, rising e-bike crashes involving young riders prompted the city’s police department to launch what may be California’s first police-led e-bike safety course for kids, and it might be exactly the kind of inventive community-based program more places need. E-bikes are transforming urban transportation: they’re fast, affordable, and efficient. In fact, a growing trend is seeing teenagers delay or eschew driver’s licenses altogether, often in favor of using an e-bike. But e-bikes also introduce new safety challenges, especially for inexperienced riders. Huntington Beach reported 147 e-bike accidents in 2024, more than double its total just two years prior. As Mayor Pat Burns told the LA Times, ‘I saw several kids blow right through a red light, clueless to how close they came to getting slaughtered by the oncoming cars.’ Emergency room teams are sounding the alarm, too. Amy Frias of Children’s Hospital of Orange County said many of the injuries are as serious as car crash trauma, including fractures, concussions, and shattered kneecaps, especially among unhelmeted kids. The stakes are high, and traditional school safety programs aren’t always prepared to address the unique physics of electric bikes. Enter Huntington Beach PD’s new e-bike safety course. With the first session held this week at Spring View Middle School and taught by Sgt. Mike Thomas and other certified instructors, the free training pairs real-world skills like emergency braking, obstacle avoidance, and helmet awareness. The course includes hands-on drills in a cone-studded course, and focuses on repeating exercises at increasingly faster speeds to help riders understand how those speeds can impact their reaction time and ability to operate the bikes effectively.” HPS ANALYSIS: While HPS doesn’t know that teaching e-bike safety courses is the best use of trained police officers, we do know, and agree, that safety education is essential for e-bike riders of all ages. The American Bicycling Education Association (www.abea.bike) and the League of American Bicyclists (www.bikeleague.com) offer e-bike safety YouTube videos, and both also offer training programs for e-bike safety instructors. HPS urges bike shops to consider having staff members trained and certified as e-bike safety instructors who can conduct safe e-bike riding courses for the shop and the community.
06 29 25: “One American’s two-year quest to move his business out of China.” The Wall Street Journal: “For the first time in nearly two decades of visiting factories in Asia, Ryan Bursky’s business trip didn’t include a stop in China. Until last year, his company’s products, lamps and other lighting goods sold to retailers including Walmart and Home Depot, had been made in China. President Trump’s first-term tariffs on Chinese goods pushed him to find an alternative. That is how Bursky ended up in Cambodia. At the end of 2024, he had moved a quarter of production from China to Cambodia. Within a few months, that became 70 percent. The goal of a trip in June: transfer all of his products out of China. Unlike semiconductors, rare-earth magnets or other goods at the heart of geopolitical wrangling, home decor isn’t a sensitive sector. But Bursky’s recent efforts are emblematic of a broader push by American businesses to reconfigure global supply chains for a new era of economic warfare. Currently, lamps from China are subject to duties of about 60 percent, including new levies imposed by Trump since his return to office this year. Imports from Cambodia briefly faced a 49 percent tariff as part of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ blitz, but that has dropped to 10 percent as trade negotiations continue. Bursky is betting that the U.S. will keep tariffs on China at a higher level, while limiting levies on Cambodian goods. ‘That’s what we’re hoping and banking on,’ Bursky said as he drove to visit his suppliers, roughly an hour outside Cambodia’s capital, Phnom Penh. In the passenger seat sat Sun Furong, the owner of one of those factories. Sun’s lighting factory in China, Litesun, has been a supplier for Bursky’s company, Lucidity Lights, since 2020. Sun started building a factory in Cambodia two years ago and sent out the first shipment for Lucidity from there in spring 2024. On the ride to Sun’s factory, the two pointed out to a Wall Street Journal reporter how quickly the area had transformed. Shops and eateries lined the main road, which was largely empty two years ago. Sun was one of the first Chinese manufacturers to break ground in the village. She estimates there are now 10 factories in the area, all owned by Chinese, most of them friends or suppliers she persuaded to come over. Tariffs on Chinese goods aren’t the only reason they are moving. China’s population is aging and shrinking, and Beijing is focusing on high-tech industries such as electric vehicles and artificial intelligence. Cambodia offers young, low-cost labor and room to grow. ‘There’s no future for us in this industry in China,’ said Sun, who goes by the English name Sabrina.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS finds this news story interesting because it is probably very similar to what has been and is going on in the bicycle business supply chain. The Chinese manufacturer has opened a plant in Cambodia for several reasons, including continuing a business relationship with an American customer, and because of an aging labor force in China. The Chinese owner is very much a part of this story, and we know of several Chinese bicycle manufacturing company owners who have opened plants in Vietnam and Cambodia, and also Taiwanese bicycle manufacturing company owners who have long-standing manufacturing operations in China who have recently opened manufacturing facilities elsewhere in Asia. The final reciprocal tariffs and the transshipping tariffs will determine if their gamble will pay off and be viable for the U.S. market going forward.
06 29 25: “Americans’ confidence in 17 U.S. institutions.” Bloomberg Opinion: “Out of 17 U.S. institutions, Americans have the greatest confidence in – small business!” HPS ANALYSIS: This came as a surprise, that the American public has more confidence in small business than in 16 other American institutions, including the military, the police, the president, and the Congress. Now we have to work on the trust and confidence between the bike shops and suppliers.
06 30 25: “Eurobike 2025, part 2: trade attendance down 11 percent.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “Eurobike concluded Sunday following a two-day consumer festival and three-day trade show. Organizers reported declines in the number of trade visitors and enthusiasts at the event, which they attributed to a less-than-complete market recovery and the absence of some major bike brands. ‘Ongoing challenges did not spare the world's leading trade fair, which this year had to do without the participation of some major industry players,’ organizers said Monday. ‘This was compensated for by the strong international presence among exhibitors, many of whom were showcasing their products on the European market for the f.irst time.’ The organizers said the show attracted 31,270 trade visitors (down 10.9 percent from last year) and 30,420 enthusiasts at the festival (down 8.1 percent from last year). They said the show included about 1,500 exhibitors. Last year they said the show had 1,800 exhibitors. Major brands missing included the large German distributor ZEG, SRAM, DT Swiss, PON.bike, and Campagnolo. One bright spot: International visitors were up, with non-Germans accounting for 53.7 percent of attendance compared to 49.2 percent in 2024. As previously reported, the organizers of Eurobike announced that next year they will produce a separate show devoted to light electric vehicles. The new show will be called Mobifuture, and be held at the same dates and same location as Eurobike (June 24-28, 2026 at the Messe Frankfurt). ‘This shift allows Eurobike to place greater emphasis on its sporting core – road cycling, gravel and e-mountain biking – while bicycle and e-bike manufacturers and suppliers, along with components, parts and accessories, will continue to form the heart of the trade fair. At the same time, Mobifuture is evolving into the leading platform for urban and connected mobility, targeting manufacturers and operators, city administrations, policymakers, and infrastructure providers, offering concrete solutions for the urban mobility of the future. This creates a forward-looking concept for two dynamically growing industries,’ organizers said.” HPS ANALYSIS: Given global market conditions, Eurobike attendance being down this year should be no surprise. I have not personally attended a Eurobike since the show moved to Frankfurt, but I understand the Messe Frankfurt is a world-class venue. Interbike in the U.S. has, as we understand it, decided not to make a comeback next year and has left the field to the CABDA regional shows. Eurobike is doing what CABDA and the NBDA both did this year, and that is connected e-bike focused events. HPS believes that all future trade shows will feature e-bikes.
07 01 25: “NBDA welcomes Bill Miller as coordinator for P2 program.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “The National Bicycle Dealers Association (NBDA) is excited to announce the appointment of Bill Miller as the new coordinator of the P2 program, the industry's leading retailer performance group designed to support profitability, leadership, and sustainable growth for bicycle retailers across North America. The P2 program, which currently unites over 90 retailers, empowers participants through expert coaching, in-depth benchmarking, and peer accountability. As coordinator, Bill Miller will join NBDA executive director Heather Mason in facilitating group sessions, guiding participants in strategy refinement, and enhancing the program's long-term impact. ‘P2 is more than a business group—it's a proven system for retailers serious about making money, building team culture, and growing sustainably,’ said Heather Mason, NBDA executive director. ‘Bill's depth of experience in both global brand strategy and shop-level retail is an incredible asset to our program and members.’ Miller brings a rich and diverse background to the role. Most recently, he served at Giant Bicycles USA where he led the corporate and retail training program, supporting store performance and internal staff development. He also played a key role in developing and expanding the Sprockids youth cycling program globally. Prior to his work with Giant, Miller contributed to product innovation and development at Trek Bicycles. He also completed projects with HED Cycling Products and worked with the Giant Group global team as a category manager, overseeing market research, product development, and cross-functional collaboration across departments and supply chains. His career began in retail, where he learned firsthand the importance of customer service, attention to detail, and high-value service experiences that drive repeat business and loyalty.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS welcomes Bill Miller. Although none of our crew has met him face-to-face yet, we understand from the NBDA that he, as the article states, has the ideal background for the P2 coordinator job. HPS is looking forward to meeting and working with him as he becomes an important part of the NBDA team.
07 02 25: “Big Beautiful Bill would end de minimis exemption for goods from all countries.” The Wall Street Journal: “The GOP’s big tax-and-spending bill includes a provision to end the de minimis rule that currently allows packages worth $800 or less to be imported duty-free from countries other than China and Hong Kong. In early May, the Trump administration ended the de minimis provision for goods made in China and Hong Kong. Under the bill passed Tuesday by the Senate, the exemption would end for other countries in June 2027. Retailers such as Temu and Shein, as well as European brands like Sézane apparel and Diadora sneakers, have been selling their goods directly to U.S. consumers for years under the de minimis exemption. The rule change in May sharply reduced demand for packages shipped to the U.S. from China. FedEx said it reduced its Asia-to-U.S. capacity by 35 percent in the first week of May. The International Mailers Advisory Group, which represents the mailing and shipping industry, said ending the tariff exemption for packages worth $800 or less could generate $40 billion in federal revenue, but that it could cost the government more than that to collect those duties. ‘Importers, and eventually customers, pay the tariff,’ the group said.” HPS ANALYSIS: De minimis is like a vampire, that you can’t kill if you don’t drive a wooden stake through its heart. As this article points out, de minimis was eliminated from Chinese imports with the Swiss negotiations and trade framework agreement, and will be eliminated from all other countries shortly.
07 03 25: “Over 225,000 509 helmets and 509 for Polaris helmets recalled.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “More than 225,000 ‘509’ helmets and ‘509 for Polaris’ helmets are being recalled because they don't provide sufficient protection. The Consumer Product Safety Commission said about 201,200 helmets, with an additional 26,800 in Canada, are affected by the recall. One incident was reported when a rider's helmet came off during a crash, resulting in a concussion. All helmets should be discarded in the local household trash after consumers have confirmed their helmet is being recalled by 509 or Polaris, and follow the destruction instructions located on the website. Polaris is also providing their customers who have the recalled 509 and 509 for Polaris helmets with Fidlock instructions on how to inspect the webbing on the chin strap to make sure it is repaired by routing it correctly. 509 and Polaris are contacting all known purchasers directly.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS isn’t sure if this large recall of safety helmets was going to happen with or without the reappointment of the three Democratic CPSC Commissioners, but it is an example of why America needs a proactive Consumer Product Safety Commission.
07 07 25: “BRICS nations push back as Trump warns of tariffs.” National Public Radio npr: “Brazil's president says the BRICS group of major emerging economies has just concluded its most important summit yet. But what was billed as a historic show of strength and unity ended in tension after President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs. ‘Any country aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10 percent Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy," he wrote on Truth Social, without clarifying which policies he meant. That drew swift pushback from Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who hosted the summit and called Trump's comments reckless. ‘We don't want an emperor, we are sovereign countries,’ Lula said during his closing remarks on Monday, adding: ‘It's not right for a president of a country the size of the United States to threaten the world online.’ The annual BRICS summit—gathering founding members Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, plus new members including Indonesia, Ethiopia, and Iran—aimed to present a unified Global South alternative to the West. But in an apparent attempt to avoid provoking Washington, the group issued a low-key final statement that avoided naming Trump or directly criticizing the U.S. That effort backfired, says Oliver Stuenkel, an international relations professor at Brazil's FGV University. ‘They probably believed they could fly under Trump's radar if they didn't mention the U.S.,’ he said. ‘But that clearly failed.’” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS would not normally pay any attention to new trade agreements, particularly with the U.S. implementing its reciprocal tariffs. However, the BRICS nations include Brazil, which is home to the largest and only bicycle manufacturing plant in South America, and India that is home to several large, modern bicycle and e-bike manufacturing plants, and has been mentioned as a possible source country to replace some or all of the Chinese bicycle and e-bike sourcing to the U.S. market. Accordingly, HPS will be watching and reporting on BRICS as long as there is active interest in U.S. bicycle and e-bike sourcing from any of its member countries.
07 07 25: “Trump sends letters with new tariff rates on goods to 14 countries, with more to come.” National Public Radio npr: “President Trump posted letters to the leaders of 14 countries, informing them that he plans to impose new tariffs on their exports to the U.S. beginning Aug. 1. He also signed an executive order officially pushing back a July 9 deadline for trade deals he set in the spring to Aug. 1, and said countries are continuing to negotiate with the U.S. In letters posted to social media, Trump wrote that ‘the United States of America has agreed to continue working with’ their countries, despite having a significant Trade Deficit with your great Country.’ He later added, ‘Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal,’ as justification for the new tariff rates. The new tariff rates are:
Bangladesh — 35 percent
Bosnia and Herzegovina — 30 percent
Cambodia — 36 percent
Indonesia — 32 percent
Japan — 25 percent
Kazakhstan — 25 percent
Laos — 40 percent
Malaysia — 25 percent
Myanmar — 40 percent
Serbia — 35 percent
South Africa — 30 percent
South Korea — 25 percent
Thailand — 36 percent
Tunisia — 25 percent
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday that more letters will be released in the following days. The letters posted so far are all nearly identical to each other, aside from country names and tariff rates. The White House has clarified that the new tariffs will not be imposed in addition to the various tariffs Trump has imposed on broad classes of goods. For example, steel and aluminum — currently tariffed worldwide at 50 percent — from any of these countries will still be tariffed at 50 percent. While Trump often frames tariffs as being paid by other countries, in the South Korea letter, he says that ‘we will charge Korea a 25 percent tariff.’ Tariffs are taxes paid to the U.S. government by companies in the U.S. for imported goods or components. As a result, the cost of tariffs is often passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Trump has regularly said that these rates were meant as retaliation against other countries' protectionist measures. In his letters, Trump added that goods that are transshipped — that is, that are made elsewhere but shipped through any of the seven countries — will be subject to higher tariffs. And should either country decide to impose a reciprocal tariff, Trump said ‘whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 25 percent tariff that we charge.’ However, Trump informed the countries that their goods could avoid these new tariff rates if their countries' companies choose to manufacture their goods in the U.S.” HPS ANALYSIS: This represents what HPS knows at 12:12 AM, July 9. The new deadline for the U.S. reciprocal and other tariffs has been moved to August 1, 2025, about 20 days from now. Based on what we have seen since the first of this year, we anticipate some additional changes and amendments to the tariffs listed herein. We also believe there will be enough clarity emerging over the next 20 days to underpin assumptions about sourcing, including near-shoring and restoring, that we will share with clients and readers as we weigh probabilities.
Contact Jay Townley: jay@humanpoweredsolutions.com