UNCERTAINTY, TARIFFS, AND E-BIKE WHEELIES

By Jay Townley

02-21-25: “What does Jack Ma's return to the spotlight mean?” BBC: “A meeting between Chinese president Xi Jinping and some of the country's foremost business leaders this week has fueled excitement and speculation after Alibaba founder Jack Ma was pictured at the event. The charismatic and colorful Mr. Ma, who was one of China's most prominent businessmen, had withdrawn from public life after criticizing China's financial sector in 2020. His reappearance at Monday's event has sparked a wave of discussion, with experts and analysts wondering what it means for him, China's tech sector, and the economy in general. The response has been overwhelmingly positive. Tech stocks, including those of Alibaba, rallied soon after the event. On Thursday, the e-commerce giant reported financial results that beat expectations, with shares ending the trading day in New York more than eight percent higher. The company's shares are up 60 percent since the beginning of the year. So what are analysts reading into Mr. Ma's appearance at the event alongside other high-profile guests, including DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng? Is Jack Ma 'rehabilitated'?” HPS ANALYSIS: Remember Jack Ma? Pre-COVID and at the beginning of the pandemic, the founder of Alibaba was in the global media. There was speculation that the Chinese “Jeff Bezos’” was actually going to bring change to the PRC until he was purged in 2020. While not ending up in prison or re-education, he disappeared from virtually every form of news media and appeared to be under some form of house arrest. He faded into government-imposed obscurity, to the point where he had been forgotten as the world emerged into the post-COVID era. Then, as 2025 dawned, Xi Jinping switched gears to a focus on consumer purchases and brought Jack Ma back from the shadows, placed him in the front row at a meeting with Chinese business leaders, and had his picture taken shaking hands with him. The question of whether “Jack is back” and what this means to the new direction of the Chinese economy is yet to be answered, but it is a demonstration of how serious Xi Jinping is about where he wants the country's economy to go. What does this mean for the bicycle business in China going forward?     

02-21-25: “Tariff wars leave U.S. small business with nowhere to hide.” BLOOMBERG: “American companies of all sizes are on edge over President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but it’s arguably small business that is most exposed. Many smaller firms say they’re having to hike prices, freeze expansion plans, or absorb a hit to already-thin profit margins as import bills climb. Such businesses employ half the U.S. workforce, so how they cope with Trump’s ramped-up trade war will be crucial to the wider economic impact. In Florida, Jay Foreman has already felt the bite. He’s chief executive of Basic Fun Inc!, which designs and markets toys like Care Bears and Tonka trucks, and his imports from China were spared from Trump’s first-term tariffs, which focused more on materials and machinery than consumer goods. But not this time. Foreman says his prices with vendors and customers were already locked in through the third quarter when a new 10 percent China levy landed this month. For now, he has no choice but to absorb the costs, which could wipe out almost one-third of this year’s profit margin. After that, if there’s no U.S.-China deal to remove tariffs, his options include pressuring suppliers to charge less, accepting smaller profits, and raising toy prices just in time for the holidays.” HPS ANALYSIS: Back in the 1960s, 70s and early 80s,  the Toy Show in New York City in March of every year was well attended by the American bicycle industry. Some of the brands, like Murray Ohio and Huffy, maintained year-round sales offices and display rooms at or near the site of the annual March trade show. Schwinn Bicycle Company, who I worked for from January 1966, didn’t maintain a permanent showroom but did exhibit, along with all of the other bicycle brands and manufacturers at the March trade show. Saying that “Tariff wars leave U.S. small business with nowhere to hide” is a mild understatement. March is when the toy buyers from U.S. retailers attend the Toy Show to place their orders for the second half of the year, through the fourth quarter holiday season. The top-tier mass merchants like Walmart and Target have already received private showings of sidewalk bikes and kids bikes and placed their orders, including private label, so both the known impact and uncertain possibilities of future import tariffs have been negotiated. It is the mid to small wholesalers and retailers that attend the Toy Show to place orders. They and the mid to small brand importers have to commit despite the uncertainties of what U.S. tariffs might or might not be, with nowhere to hide.  

02-24-25: “California town seeks to criminalize wheelies on ‘75 m.p.h. electric bikes.’” electrek: “In a reflection of growing sentiment in the U.S. against reckless electric bike riders, one California town is preparing to enact a series of new restrictions and legal clarifications for e-bike riders. This week, the Santa Barbara City Council will be discussing proposed changes to its city ordinances pertaining to electric bicycles. The move has been spurred by many in the city having taken issue with riders who operate their bikes in reckless or dangerous manners, often riding near pedestrians on sidewalks or showing a general disregard for the safety of passersby.” HPS ANALYSIS: This article reflects a growing anti-e-bike attitude that is growing on the West Coast and spreading across the country. The American bicycle industry and business has been off the back from the beginning with its rider education and safety message, and just announced a cooperative safety initiative with the motorcycle industry at the BLC earlier this month, a day late and a dollar short. The brutal truth is that the safety platform and educational message from the American bicycle industry was abandoned 25 years ago and has to be urgently updated and spread countrywide ASAP to help slow the decline of bicycle sales and ridership. A collaboration with the motorcycle industry is welcome, but HPS believes this collaboration needs to also include the League of American Bicyclists and the National Bicycle Dealers Association.

02-24-25: “WBIA promotes cycling as a scalable, low-carbon transport solution at UN conference.” BIKE europe: “The UN 'Decade of Sustainable Transport (2026-2035)' might give a boost to the promotion of cycling on a global scale. On behalf of the international bicycle industry, gathering at the World Bicycle Industry Association (WBIA), Manuel Marsilio explored how this will give a follow-up to the master plan for cycling promotion. Both industry organizations WBIA and CONEBI participated in the United Nations’ 87th session of the Inland Transport Committee (ITC), under the theme ‘Successes and Challenges for Inland Transport on the Road to 2030,’ on the 11th and the 12th of February.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS doubts that many of its readers are familiar with the WBIA but is confident the majority of our readers advocate for “… cycling as a scalable, low-carbon transport solution” and are in favor of promoting cycling on a global scale. The European bicycle industry organizations are much more involved, and its members are much more aware. HPS urges PeopleForBikes, a member of the WBIA, to spread the word and get its membership, which includes HPS, much more actively involved in promoting cycling as a low-carbon transport solution, no matter how politically unattractive this stance may be.

02-24-25: “Curbing China.” POLITICO Weekly Trade: “Trump on Friday signed a memorandum to restrict the flow of Chinese investment into the United States, which former officials and analysts say could lay the groundwork for a more forceful application of CFIUS. [Note: CFIUS is The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States] “The ‘America First Investment Policy’ memo directs CFIUS, which weighs national security risks of foreign transactions, to ‘use all necessary legal instruments’ to curb Chinese affiliates from investment in strategic American sectors. Those include ‘technology, critical infrastructure, healthcare, agriculture, energy, raw materials, or other strategic sectors.’ The memo also says the administration will consider expanding curbs on outbound investment to Beijing in sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence. The directive is the Trump administration's latest salvo against China, which has previously focused more on tariffs over other forms of trade curbs.” HPS ANALYSIS: If you are following recent investments in the American bicycle business, you have noted that the majority, at least by HPS’s count, have been made by Chinese entities. As reported last month, many U.S. bike shops have or are about to switch 2025 brand product commitments to Chinese e-bike brands. The American bicycle business may be simply too small from a dollar volume and investment standpoint to warrant the attention of the CFIUS or too low-tech to be of any interest as a national security risk but, as the article states, this is another attempt to curb Chinese investment in the U.S. at a time the American bicycle business needs all the investment it can get.

02-26-25: “ILA ratifies 6-year labor contract.” SupplyChainDive: “The International Longshoremen’s Association voted to ratify a six-year contract agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance on Tuesday, according to a Facebook post shared by the union on Wednesday. The union, which represents roughly 85,000 longshore workers at 100 seaports across the East and Gulf Coasts, said its members voted nearly 99 percent in favor to approve the tentative contract agreement that was reached in January. The ILA said in a statement the contract became retroactively effective on Oct. 1, 2024, and will expire on Sept. 30, 2030. The contract will be formally signed by both the ILA and USMX on March 11, 2025. ILA President Harold Daggett said the union and its members now aim to work in partnership with USMX to help union-represented ports grow and flourish, according to the post. Approval of the contract comes after several months of negotiations and a three-day strike that took place in early October. Automation and its impact on labor continued to be a major concern for the union through the timeline of the contract talks, which halted bargaining a few times. HPS ANALYSIS: This is merely a footnote to close out HPS’s warnings over the last quarter of 2024 about the probability of an East and Gulf Coast dock workers strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association or ILA. A strike was a real threat until it wasn’t, and the only question going into 2025 was the ratification vote by the ILA membership of a six-year contract that includes automation and the use of automation at the East and Gulf Coast ports by the United States Maritime Alliance, or USMX, and the port owners. Automation is seen as the issue that will be most contentious over the six-year life of the current labor contract. Stay tuned.

02-26-25: “Trump’s new trade czar, Jamieson Greer, confirmed as USTR.” SOURCING JOURNAL: “President Donald Trump’s pick for U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, was confirmed at a hearing on Wednesday morning by a vote of 56 to 43, with 51 Republicans voting in favor, alongside just five Democrats. Greer, the one-time chief of staff to former USTR Robert Lighthizer, was nominated in November by then president-elect Trump, who credited him for playing “a key role” in the rollout of Section 301 duties on China during Trump’s first administration, as well as helping along negotiations of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Greer is expected to be instrumental in carrying out Trump’s ambitious (if unorthodox) trade agenda, which centers on the leveraging of duties to address trade deficits and political objectives. HPS ANALYSIS: Finally, the new administration has a confirmed USTR who comes with extensive hands-on experience as chief of staff to the USTR during Trump’s first administration. Jamieson Greer has already become a significant player in the turmoil of the current tariff wars, and it appears he will continue to be an important factor in all future trade-related issues and negotiations. An issue that has all but disappeared prior to Greer’s confirmation is the USTR being subordinated to the Secretary of Commerce instead of reporting directly to the president. In any case, readers can expect to see Jamieson Greer’s name appear frequently in this newsletter.

02-27-25: “A U.S. government proposal to penalize Chinese ships could hit importers hardest.” The Wall Street Journal Logistics Report: “The U.S. Trade Representative’s office is considering imposing multimillion-dollar fees on Chinese-operated, Chinese-built, and Chinese-flagged ships that call at U.S. ports to counter China’s dominance of global shipbuilding. The WSJ Logistics Report’s Paul Berger writes that the fees stand little chance of bolstering domestic shipbuilding. Business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Retail Federation say the fees could drive up shipping costs, forcing retailers and manufacturers to raise prices. Logistics specialists say ocean carriers could blunt some of the charges by shuffling their fleets so that a greater share of Japanese- and South Korean-built ships call at U.S. ports. That would still leave the carriers exposed to penalties based on the number of Chinese-built ships they own or have on order. Almost 70 percent of order book capacity is being built in Chinese yards, according to Linerlytica. Because container ships make multiple calls at U.S. ports, ocean carriers could be looking at millions of dollars in charges per voyage. Analysts at Jefferies estimate the fees could add $150 to $300 to the average cost of shipping a container from China to the U.S. West Coast.” HPS ANALYSIS: There are several articles this month that involve this same issue because it is going to increase the cost of importing bicycles, e-bikes, and related parts and accessories into the U.S. This is not a tariff. It is a proposed U.S. port fee, imposed by each port of call in the U.S. made by a Chinese-operated, Chinese-built, and Chinese-flagged ship. The fees under consideration are multimillion-dollar fees charged per port of call. These fees will be added to the cost of each shipping container from China to the U.S., and HPS believes the estimates of $150 to $300 per shipping container are low, and the potential additional cost will be significantly higher. Ask your import brokers and shipping lines for their estimates and to keep you apprised of this issue.

03-02-25: “America is dangerously ignorant of what’s going on in China.” The New York Times: “In December 2022, China’s government abruptly ditched its strict COVID-19 pandemic controls after thousands of citizens protested against the social and economic pain they were causing. It was a complete surprise. Despite closely tracking the situation from afar, I and many other China watchers had failed to anticipate this sudden and major shift in government policy, which deeply affected life in China and the country’s openness to the rest of the world. Anticipating what China’s government will do has gotten even more difficult since then, as relations with the United States have deteriorated, and as Beijing treats information that was once readily available like state secrets. This means that significant decisions on U.S. policy are being made based on diminishing insight into China’s internal dynamics, raising the risk of miscalculations. It’s a dangerous time to be flying blind. Misinterpreting China’s technological capabilities could endanger America’s competitive edge. Misreading Chinese domestic social pressures leaves us unprepared for major policy changes such as the sudden end of the COVID restrictions, and miscalculating Beijing’s intentions on Taiwan could inadvertently lead to a major global conflict. For Western scholars of China, the era before the pandemic now feels like a distant golden age. Despite always tight Chinese information controls and opaque policymaking, academics could still visit the country, navigate archives, cultivate relationships with their Chinese counterparts, and pursue research. The resulting academic findings were good for America. For decades, U.S. government agencies regularly called on scholars, and still do, to provide briefings and testimony and to mine their research for insights that were vital to informing American policy decisions. Then came the pandemic. China sealed itself off from the world, slamming the door on academic fieldwork in the country by foreign scholars as well as in-person exchanges with Chinese officials and other contacts. The COVID restrictions were finally lifted, but the landscape for scholars had been transformed. There were fewer commercial flights to China, new restrictions on access to archives and interview subjects, heightened difficulties researching sensitive topics such as the pandemic,  the slowing Chinese economy, and a generally more closed-off environment. HPS ANALYSIS: While this is an academic assessment, HPS believes, from its collective experience, that it is very correct, and we urge our readers to take the time to read the whole article and contact us if you need a copy. OEMs like Giant, Merida, and Ideal, and component brands like Shimano and SRAM, have owned and operated manufacturing facilities in mainland China for decades and have regular, daily contacts and communications with the PRC central government, provincial and local municipal governments, as well as their local managers and workforce. Accordingly, these companies have a current, daily understanding of what is going on with the PRC and China as a country. The international brand buyers are also well-plugged in with native Chinese employees, Mandarin-speaking American and European resident employees, and decades of experience. The mid-size and small-brand buyers are distant and may visit their suppliers in Asia once or twice a year. An example is the Taipei Cycle Show that starts March 26. The mid-size and small-brand buyers may or may not actually travel to China and instead rely on their employees, agents, and trading companies to keep them informed. This is where the bicycle business loses touch. HPS does not travel to or visit mainland China, Taiwan, or Asia, but we do read daily updates and newsletters from vetted and reliable businesses and sources in Asia, Taiwan, and China, and we urge our clients to do so as well. 

03-03-25: “What five charts say about the pandemic’s impact on retail, 5 years later.” RETAILDIVE: “The industry may be far from the dramatic day-to-day struggles of 2020, but it hasn’t yet escaped the long tail the global health crisis left in its wake. The pandemic may have hit retail five years ago, but its impacts came in wave after relentless wave for months after that. Immediate, dramatic effects — including widespread staff furloughs and the temporary closure of entire store footprints — gave way to longer-term challenges as supply chain chaos swept the industry. Government-funded stimulus payments, handed out to ease consumers’ pain, boosted spending but left long-tail impacts that are still hurting retailers today. A lot of stimulus money ended up in the retail sector, which meant the industry ‘really ballooned’ during the pandemic, according to Coresight Research’s head of global research, John Mercer. ‘One point we’ve made repeatedly is that consumers, we think, still haven’t ceded what they’ve spent,’ Mercer said, referring to the increased levels of spending shoppers adopted during that time. ‘But then, of course, the long-term effects of that stimulus is fueling inflation, which then obviously is challenging for consumers.’ The rise of inflation also coincided with the depletion of many shoppers’ pandemic-era savings. The result? Shoppers pulled back on discretionary purchases, particularly in those categories that they overspent on while stuck inside. That’s led to the past two years of declines and stagnation in categories like home, which in turn has fueled bankruptcies, even years after COVID stopped being a regular word on the public’s lips.’” HPS ANALYSIS: This article helped HPS focus on the reality that the pandemic and its impact on the American consumer and bicycle business has been profound and long-lasting and that we are living, five years later, in the era that COVID and the pandemic created. As an example, the bicycle retail business is folded into the U.S. Commerce Department’s data for crafts and outdoor retailers, which continues to struggle through lackluster sales trends, leading to two Joann bankruptcies in roughly a year, layoffs at the likes of REI and Patagonia, and even pullback from Dick’s Sporting Goods on its outdoors ambitions. HPS cannot reproduce the “five charts” but here are the headings: E-commerce is still thriving, but may be nearing maturity; store closures in 2025 will be worse than in 2020; hard-hit categories may finally be nearing recovery; yes, the pandemic is still causing bankruptcies; in 2024, hirings were 40 percent lower than 2019.

03-04-25: ”MSC CEO says U.S. port fees could drive up container costs by 25 percent.” SOURCING JOURNAL: “Proposed fees on China-built and -operated ships docking at U.S. ports could have ‘significant consequences’ in the form of added costs and trade line constriction, according to Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) chief executive Soren Toft. Speaking at the TPM25 trade and logistics conference hosted in Long Beach, Calif. by S&P Global, the CEO of the world’s largest ocean freight firm said that the Trump administration’s proposal—which could raise fees up to $1.5 million per port—would force the shipper to ‘revise our network and withdraw coverage … or we will have to add that cost on top, and ultimately, the consumer will have to pay.’ The new fees could see container rates balloon by 20 percent to 25 percent, he estimated. ‘The other thing that I think will happen immediately is that all the marginal ports will have to be re-looked at,’ he added. ‘I mean, here we are in California today. We are typically calling at L.A.-Long Beach and then proceed to Oakland. But we can’t proceed to Oakland if that costs another million dollars.’ Certain trade routes could easily become uneconomical, and if MSC isn’t able to pass on costs to its customers, it will have to shrink its network. ‘I think a lot of the marginal ports—the peripheral ports—will be at risk, and we’ll have to adapt our services,’ Toft said. The group may explore other trade routes that are ‘more attractive,’ but that could still mean calling at fewer ports. The MSC leader said his biggest concern if that were to happen is a re-acceleration of port congestion not unlike the conditions seen during the pandemic.” HPS ANALYSIS: For clarity, Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) is among the largest container ocean shipping companies in the world. MSC, like all its competitors, made huge profits during the pandemic, bought up ports and shipping facilities around the world, and even started or acquired air-freight subsidiaries. HPS doesn’t trust MSC as far as I can pick up and throw Mr. Toft. However, with this said, he does make a compelling warning about shipping and container fees going up by as much as 25 percent if the threatened U.S. port fees go into full force. The example he uses of the twin ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB) affects the bicycle business. Today, a brand or PA&R importer can use either the port of LA or LB, depending on which can land the goods at the lowest cost. If the proposed port fee goes into effect, if the ocean freight line is utilizing a container vessel that was built in, owned by, or flagged in China, it will pay up to $1.5 million per port the vessel docks at. Rather than pay up to $3 million for both the ports of LA and LB, MSC will pick one and drop the other from its ports of call list, meaning that the importer will have to pay whatever the port charges and face the very real probability of back-ups and delays. You can look up the data, but the majority of vessels in service today are associated with China in some form that will result in the added port fee if the U.S. moves forward, which will increase the cost of every bicycle and e-bike, as well as PA&R imported into the U.S., no matter what the country of origin is. Stay tuned. 

03-07-25: “A look at some of the creative ways companies try to dodge high tariffs.” National Public Radio npr: “As concerns swirl over the impacts of steep new tariffs on U.S. companies and consumers, so too does talk about how certain businesses try to avoid them … Companies and industries have several primary methods to get around tariffs, from the expensive process of relocating production to the more creative approach of redesigning the products themselves. The latter is called tariff engineering. And it explains — among other things — why Converse sneakers are made in part with fuzzy fabric. While these strategies aren't all guaranteed to work this time around, they offer a glimpse at the behind-the-scenes maneuvering that companies have used to bring prices down in the past. Method 1: Lobbying for exemptions. One strategy is to lobby the government for an exemption or reprieve, as the automakers did. Method 2: Shifting sourcing and production. Companies could also try to change where they obtain their materials or assemble their products, though that's often easier said than done. A consumer good is usually considered an import when it undergoes final assembly in another country, regardless of where the parts are from, Madeira says. So companies could at least theoretically shift the final step of the assembly process to the U.S. At least one already has. NOBL Wheels, a Canadian manufacturer and supplier of bike wheels, announced in mid-February that it would open a new building operation and distribution center in Bellingham, Wash., to offer ‘faster, hassle-free shipping that's duty and tariff-free, with significantly shorter lead times.’ Method 3: Reclassifying and redesigning products themselves. Some companies have turned to tariff engineering instead. ‘In other words, companies try to say their article or their good is something that gets low tariff treatment relative to what it might actually be, in essence,’ Irwin explains. ‘So you're engineering your product to get into the lower tariff category. Sometimes, that can entail relabeling a product as something else — or at least trying to.” HPS ANALYSIS: This is an excellent article, and HPS highly recommends it to readers who import products and will be impacted by tariffs. As we have said, Steve Bina and I worked in the purchasing division at the Schwinn Bicycle Company when the company converted to primarily importing its products from Asia. We had on the purchasing staff two full-time licensed customs brokers, whose job was to implement Method 3 above and to recommend Methods 1 and 2. Method 1 was referred to the product safety & governmental affairs department, and Method 2 was referred to the purchasing division. The majority of importers today do not maintain the infrastructure we did at Schwinn after the company shifted to importing, but I am confident retailers like Walmart and Target maintain a corporate structure that allows them to do something similar. For the midsize and small importers, their customs brokers can either execute or point them in the direction of specialists who can act on one or more of these proposed methods. The objective, in addition to paying a lower tariff, is to do it legally and avoid penalties or litigation.   

03-10-25: “Vosper: Dealer supply chain mechanics are changing, maybe.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “One of the interesting things about our quirky little industry is that the only things that change year to year — and even decade to decade — are its products. The actual mechanics of how those products get from factory to supplier to dealer and ultimately, to the bike-riding public, have remained essentially unchanged since the end of the Bike Boom in the early '70s and the rise of the Bike 2.0 era. Initially modeled on the old Schwinn distribution network, the Bike 2.0 version was rooted in the industry’s migration to Asian manufacturers, the rise of the current dominant Quadumvirate of the Trek, Specialized, Giant, and Cannondale brands, and the resulting increased lead times that resulted from having bikes designed in the U.S. but manufactured literally half a world away. The chain looked something like this: U.S.-based brands sourced bicycle production in Japanese, and later Taiwanese, Chinese, and Southeast Asian countries, which offered the hard-to-beat combination of much better quality with much lower prices compared to traditional domestic or European sources (although some European brands are currently challenging this model with near-shoring initiatives). Brands paid for those bikes with letters of credit drawn largely on U.S. banks, with occasional assistance from ‘business-friendly’ Asian governments (more about that another time, maybe), and shipped them to the States via ocean freight. On arrival stateside, bikes were transferred to suppliers’ domestic warehouses and from there to a network of participating — or ‘authorized’ — dealers, who had pre-ordered them on extended credit terms. During that time, retailers were expected to sell the bikes to their customers and then apply the proceeds to pay their suppliers. If they were particularly successful in this, dealers could take advantage of anticipation discounts to boost their realized margins. Within the constraints of perfect competition, business was generally good. All parties in the supply chain made at least a modest profit on the result, especially the banks who financed all that credit in the first place. The formula worked like a charm until it didn’t.” HPS ANALYSIS: As always, an excellent Op-Ed by Rick Vosper. HPS commented on Bob Lickton’s recommendation for having brands pay a shelving or stocking fee last month, and we continue to believe that the pre-pandemic distribution methods are falling away and will be replaced by brand-to-bike shop distribution systems that will provide everyone in the distribution channel with a fair and equitable profit margin. The DTC channel will shrink in size as a hybrid that includes bike shops for assembly, warranty, and service, evolves. Relative to Rick’s article, supply chain mechanics are changing – period.

03-12-25: “Vietnam importer would welcome reciprocal tariffs.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “If the U.S. imposed reciprocal tariffs, it would create higher U.S. import tariffs on bikes and e-bikes from Vietnam, a key sourcing nation for the industry in recent years, although Vietnam imports relatively few U.S. bike products. President Donald Trump has plans to impose tariffs on imports from other nations that equal those nations' tariffs on U.S. products as soon as April 2. When it comes to bikes, most nations have relatively low duties on U.S. products, so the reciprocal action would have little direct impact on the U.S. industry. Vietnam is an exception, with current tariffs of 45 percent on U.S. bikes and 55 percent on U.S. e-bikes. Vietnam imposes tariffs of around 45 percent on most other bike parts and accessories from the U.S. Vietnam's consumer market for non-utilitarian bicycles is quite small. But the mixed socialist-oriented market economy does import some U.S. bicycle products. And one of that country's largest importers for the domestic market told BRAIN he would welcome reciprocal tariffs if they led to a new trade deal and reduced Vietnam's current high import duties on U.S. products. HPS ANALYSIS:  As HPS understands it, the principle behind so-called reciprocal tariffs is: whatever they charge us, we will charge them. If this were truly the premise, it would be a somewhat reasonable starting point. However, the principle is modified with “equivalents,” meaning considering things like value-added-taxes, or VATs as being equivalent to tariffs, and accordingly adding them to the tariffs to calculate the reciprocal tariff the U.S. will charge the same or corresponding HTS number from another country of origin. While the Vietnamese importer that BRAIN interviewed says he would welcome reciprocal tariffs, HPS doubts he totally understands what the U.S. definition of “reciprocal” means.  

03-14-25: “President Donald Trump’s trade war with China could have unintended consequences.” Bloomberg Businessweek Daily: “President Donald Trump’s trade war with China could have unintended consequences for the littlest Americans, such as increased choking hazards, lead paint contamination, and other risks, if there’s a sudden global shakeup of the toy supply chain. At least, that’s what the industry is warning. U.S. toy sales totaling $42 billion a year are heavily reliant on China for manufacturing. And it turns out Chinese factories are pretty good at meeting U.S. safety standards, toy executives say. They fear that scrambling to quickly source goods from factories in Indonesia, Vietnam, and elsewhere to dodge tariffs would be a gamble with product safety. ‘Making toys is a pretty complicated process, especially the safety protocols we have to go through,’ says Jay Foreman, chief executive officer of Basic Fun in Boca Raton, Florida. ‘If our supply chain gets turned upside down, we are going to be risking unsafe toys.’ Basic Fun has licensing deals to manufacture and distribute a variety of classic brands, including Tonka trucks, Lincoln Logs, and Lite-Brite (ask your parents). Foreman says he recently canceled a trip to Vietnamese factories because their quotes were 20 percent higher than his Chinese suppliers, which wouldn’t offset Trump’s new 20 percent tariffs. But the prospects of toy manufacturing, which left the U.S. four decades ago, ever returning are slim, he says. ‘If Apple can’t make a $1,000 iPhone in America, how am I going to make a $20 Tonka truck here?’” HPS ANALYSIS: The toy industry comes up several times this month because of its size as an industry in retail dollars and its high visibility, particularly toward the holiday season. If you follow the weekly recall notice from CPSC, you can appreciate the quote in the article: “Making toys is a pretty complicated process, especially the safety protocols we have to go through.” The point that: “If our supply chain gets turned upside down, we are going to be risking unsafe toys” is well taken, and while applicable to bicycles, it is somewhat mollified by the aging mandatory federal bicycle safety standard and the fact that there is no mandatory safety standard in place for e-bikes or lithium-ion batteries.

03-14-25: “Giant operating profits down 60 percent last year.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “Giant Group reports that its operating profits declined 60 percent last year as it wrote down NT$1.9 billion ($57.6 million) in inventory provision losses, recognizing the decline in inventory value due to discounting. The company said it expects to see a profit recovery in 2025. Giant filed full-year provisional revenue numbers in January with the Taipei Stock Exchange, showing a 7.4 percent decline in sales, but didn’t release profitability numbers until Friday. The company said its own branded bikes continued to be affected by a reduction in demand in the U.S. and Europe. Giant Group’s net profit after tax came to NT$1.26 billion, an annual decline of 62.8 percent. Earnings per share was NT$3.22, down from NT$8.68 last year. Giant’s board approved a cash dividend of NT$2.2 per share. Giant also reported fourth-quarter 2024 figures showing an 8.5 percent decline in consolidated sales, year-over-year, to NT$13.59 billion. After reporting strong sales in the Chinese market in recent quarters, Giant said fourth-quarter sales in China were ‘soft’ and combined with heavy discounting in Europe and the U.S. The company recorded an operating loss of NT$1.04 billion in the quarter and a net loss before tax of NT$920 million in the quarter.” HPS ANALYSIS: Giant Global Group is the largest of the global OEMs and bicycle brands, and it can be said that as Giant Global Group goes, so goes the global bicycle business. The brutal truth is that the operating profit of the largest original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and top-tier brand was down 60 percent last year. It is the end of the first quarter of 2025, and typical of a public company, Giant is predicting a recovery to more acceptable profit levels during the coming year. The final financial results for Merida and Ideal follow – and the brutal truths continue – as do the optimistic projections for the coming year. HPS is advising our clients to prepare for a difficult couple of years, with recovery coming from the inventory glut and subsequent shake-out no sooner than 2026. Good business, inventory, and financial planning are essential going forward.

03-14-25: “Merida writes down $105 million impairment related to Specialized investment.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “Taiwanese manufacturer Merida Industry Co., which owns 35 percent of Specialized Bicycle Company, recorded a non-operating loss of over $100 million related to that investment in 2024, as the U.S. bike brand took a deferred tax loss and write-downs on its retail operations. Merida’s board approved a dividend despite the annual loss, explaining that its core business was growing and profitable and the Specialized loss was a one-time occurrence. It also said Specialized’s inventory position and cash balance have returned to pre-pandemic levels. At a news conference in Taiwan Thursday, Merida explained that the losses due to its investment in Specialized came from three sources: 8 percent of the loss was from operations, while the other 92 percent came from a deferred tax loss and a write-down on the valuation of Specialized’s retail stores, in goodwill and an ROU (Right of Use) Asset Impairment. Merida did not specify what share of the total loss came from the deferred loss and what share was from the retail write-downs. ‘During the pandemic, numerous brands strategically acquired bike shops to gain market share. However, the market demands have shifted rapidly, leading to a decline in the valuation of these bike shops and resulted in the impairment,’ Merida explained in a presentation made at the news conference. Merida noted the deferred tax loss can be used to offset taxes on future profits.” HPS ANALYSIS: It is now apparent that Merida Industry’s financial performance is tied to its 35 percent ownership interest in Specialized Bicycle Company and that company’s investment in retail stores. This issue is reviewed and discussed financially but not from either an analysis of the Specialized retail investment or from the aspect of future planning by markets. What has been disclosed also begs the strategic position of Specialized vs. its major competitors in Europe, China, and North America.

03-14-25: “Decathlon to sell Rebike refurbished e-bikes.” BIKE europe: “Last year, Decathlon Germany announced an expansion of its digital marketplace portfolio with both the Sushi branded e-bike range from Sushi Mobility GmbH as well as remanufactured e-bikes from refurbisher Rebike Mobility GmbH. Now, the sporting goods retailer is strengthening its collaboration with Rebike with a new shop-in-shop retail concept. Last October, Decathlon Pulse, the investment arm and start-up studio of retail giant Decathlon, invested in Rebike for an undisclosed amount. It joins existing Rebike shareholders, including Circularity Capital, Tengelmann Ventures, Parkshore, and Vorwerk Ventures. ’Together, we aim to professionalize the secondary e-bike market and make refurbished e-bikes a mainstream option for consumers,’ said Decathlon at that time. Imminent roll out in Germany: As part of this partnership, in the near future – and in addition to its own stores in Frankfurt and Munich, Rebike Mobility will have its own sales areas with refurbished e-bikes and other services in Decathlon chain stores in Germany.” HPS ANALYSIS:  Article author Jo Beckendorff has done his usual thorough job of investigative reporting. Decathlon is, from what HPS understands, the largest specialty retailer in Europe. As such, Decathlon's embracing of “remanufactured e-bikes” is considered by HPS to be very significant as concerns the growth of the circular economy in Europe as well as European consumers’ demand for previously owned e-bikes as opposed to paying the higher retail price for new e-bikes. This is in line with the growth of the previously owned bicycle and e-bike market segment in the U.S. 

03-14-25: “Consumer sentiment plunges to 29-month low.” Chain Store Age CSA: “Consumer sentiment plunged in March amid mounting concerns about inflation. U.S. consumer sentiment took a big dive in March amid mounting concerns about rising inflation due to tariffs. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 11 percent in March to a reading of 57.9, hitting its lowest level since November 2022. Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is currently down 22 percent from December 2024. Declines in March were seen consistently across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions, according to Joanne Hsu, director, surveys of consumers. While consumer sentiment about current economics remained little changed from February, the index of consumer expectations (expectations for the next six months) slid 15.3 percent to 54.2 in March from 64.0 in February. ‘Expectations for the future deteriorated across multiple facets of the economy, including personal finances, labor markets, inflation, business conditions and stock markets,’ said Hsu. ‘Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors. Frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future, regardless of one’s policy preferences.’ Hsu noted that consumers from all three political affiliations are in agreement that the outlook has weakened since February.” HPS ANALYSIS: Uncertainty isn’t just the enemy of businesses of all sizes. It obviously is also the enemy of U.S. consumers. HPS will be watching the monthly University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer sentiment very closely from this point forward. The Fed gave off reassurance about the U.S. economy and inflation in holding its interest rates steady, with no change, but made a point about the importance of consumer sentiment and confidence going forward into the second quarter of this year. American consumers drive the retail marketplace and the bicycle business. They are more concerned now than they were in 2024. This leads to HPS’s recommendation that the American bicycle business, led by the NBDA, has a critical need to understand what the consumer is thinking about owning and riding a bicycle, including e-bikes, for themselves and their children now and going forward, what needs to change for them to purchase and when. In short, a complete, in-depth primary consumer research study of a statistically-significant percentage and balanced representation of the population is the only way the American bicycle business is going to obtain the knowledge it needs to craft a winning strategy for the future. If you want more reasons for such a research study, read the next article.

03-17-25: “Ouch is the best way to describe this month’s retail sales numbers.” RETAILDIVE: “Monthly retail sales from the U.S. Commerce Department. The department’s Census Bureau tracks estimates each month. Retail Dive provides the numbers for key segments and their year-over-year progress or decline. YoY sales performance by sector February 2025 Monthly retail sales: Total sales +0 percent, non-store +2 percent, furniture & home +2 percent, general merchandise 0 percent, clothing & accessories -3 percent, sporting goods, hobby, bookstores -6 percent, electronics & appliances -9 percent. HPS ANALYSIS: I am writing this on Sunday, March 23 and will be packing for my flight to Las Vegas and the NBDA Retail Summit and the CABDA West Expo next week. I will be able to ask both the NBDA team and lots of bike shop owners and employees how their March and first quarter have gone – compared to the Commerce Department report that sporting goods, hobby and bookstores were down six percent in February Y-O-Y. Is “ouch” the best way to summarize February, or did bike shops, on balance, have a better month? HPS will let you know next month.

03-18-25: “Giant Group 2024 margins under pressure due to inventory impairment.” BIKE europe: “The excess inventory of Giant Group's own brands in Europe, and the U.S. in particular, continued to impact the financial performance of the company. The board of directors reported a 7.4 percent decline in consolidated sales to NT$71.28 bn (€1.98 bn) in 2024. While all financial indicators were negative for 2024, Giant Group remains positive for 2025. The aggressive discounting policy, which has become common practice in the industry in an attempt to reduce the level of inventory, resulted in substantial losses of margins. The Giant Group even posted an NT$1.9 bn (€52.8 mln) loss on its 2024 financial position as a one-time write-off due to the inventory impairment. The group gross margin reduced to 19 percent compared to 22.1 percent for 2023.” HPS ANALYSIS: At the risk of being accused of beating a dead horse, HPS has included this article to emphasize the continuing financial pressure the inventory glut created by the bullwhip effect during the pandemic, and triggering the shake-out and discounting, continues to cause difficulties for the big global players in the bicycle industry, and why HPS is being very cautious about the next six to seven quarters.

03-18-25: “Splurge or save? Americans struggle as tariffs hit economy.” BBC News: “A few days after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, Amber Walliser stocked up, spending $2,000 (£1,538) on appliances she believed would get more expensive as the White House started to put new taxes on imports. But that was a temporary splurge. These days, her family is buckling down, worried about job security and a possible economic downturn, which experts believe could be more likely because of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. It means no new car or big vacation this year. They have even shelved plans to start trying for a second child. ‘We are saving as much as possible, just hoarding cash, trying to bulk up our emergency fund,’ the 32-year-old accountant from Ohio said. Amber's worries are being echoed across the U.S. as tariffs and other changes by the White House hit the stock market, spark turmoil for businesses, and add to inflation concerns. That is the tricky scenario that officials at the U.S. central bank will have to address at their interest rates meeting on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve, which is supposed to keep both prices and employment stable, typically lowers borrowing costs to help support the economy or raises them to slow down price rises, as it did when prices shot up in 2022. Though analysts widely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, they are far more divided about what to expect in the months ahead, as tariffs could both raise prices and slow economic growth. HPS ANALYSIS: HPS searches the British Broadcasting System (BBC) for articles by its American-based reporters because they tend to dig deeper than most domestic broadcasters. Keep in mind that a reporter for the BBC is going to view U.S. tariffs differently, although HPS isn’t sure how differently, compared to a U.S. domestic reporter. With this said, “surge or save” hit home from the standpoint of how a 32-year-old accountant from Ohio reacted from a spending standpoint to the national election and tariffs. While HPS doesn’t believe most Americans are as analytical as the accountant in this story, we do think the reaction to “save” rather than spend is indicative of where most consumers’ heads are right now. The operative question: where will American consumers’ heads be next month and the month after that? 

03-19-25: “Amazon files lawsuit against Consumer Product Safety Commission over recall requirements.” SOURCING JOURNAL: “Amazon is suing the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) over an order it issued to the company related to recalling third-party sellers’ items. The order that triggered the lawsuit came years after the CPSC initially recalled more than 400,000 units of products sold on Amazon’s marketplace through merchants signed up for Fulfilled by Amazon (FBA). That recall spurred an investigation and, years later, a decision that Amazon would be responsible for recalling hazardous products sold on its marketplaces, even if they are listed by third-party sellers. At the time of the order, the CPSC determined that Amazon should be categorized as a distributor, rather than a third-party logistics provider, for its FBA program. In that order, it noted that the company ‘does considerably more than is allowed by the definition of ‘third-party logistics provider.’ That distinction is important because distributors are subject to more stringent regulations than third-party logistics providers. In its new lawsuit, Amazon insists, as it did leading up to and upon being handed the CPSC’s order, that it should be qualified as the latter. If the CPSC had classified it that way, that would have shielded Amazon from the responsibility associated with processing recalls.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS has covered the CPSC vote and decision to move ahead with defining Amazon as a “distributor” and, as such, being responsible for recalling the products found to be banned hazardous substances violating a safety standard or presenting a substantial hazard to the public. Bike shops are considered “distributors” by the CPSC, and HPS believes that Amazon should be defined and treated exactly the same way. Amazon obviously disagrees, and in doing so is exercising its legal right to overturn the CPSC’s finding.

03-19-25: “The Fed holds interest rates steady as Trump's trade agenda sparks uncertainty.” National Public Radio npr: “Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues left interest rates unchanged Wednesday. Inflation eased last month, but prices are still climbing faster than the central bank would like. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, as policymakers await clear signals of how the Trump administration's tariffs and other policies will affect the U.S. economy. Members of the central bank's rate-setting committee voted to keep their benchmark rate between 4.25 percent and 4.5 percent. Updated forecasts released Wednesday show that, on average, committee members expect to cut borrowing costs by about half a percent later this year. Trump's tariffs could complicate that process, though. Recent surveys suggest that more businesses are preparing to raise prices and consumers are expecting higher inflation since the president's import taxes began taking effect last month. Trump has added 20 percent tariffs on all imports from China and 25 percent tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from around the world. The president is preparing to impose additional import taxes beginning next month. Uncertainty around trade policy and the on-again-off-again rollout of tariffs led to volatility in the stock market earlier this month. The Fed is trying to assess the overall economic effect of those tariffs along with the administration's efforts to curb immigration, lower taxes, slash federal spending, and roll back regulations. ‘It's really hard to know how this is going to work out," Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters Wednesday. ‘In the meantime, it's appropriate to wait for further clarity. And the cost of doing that, given that the economy is still solid, is very low.’ Powell stressed that while the White House trade policy has sparked considerable uncertainty — with tariffs imposed one day and sometimes suspended the next — the overall economy has remained resilient. The unemployment rate was a low 4.1 percent in February while the annual inflation rate slowed to 2.8 percent.” HPS ANALYSIS: The Fed holding interest rates and not making any change has reassured American business and the markets, but has not lowered the interest rate paid on business loans by small businesses, like bike shops. Acknowledging there is a great deal of uncertainty right now because of U.S. trade policy and import tariffs, Fed chairman Powell told reporters: “In the meantime, it's appropriate to wait for further clarity. And the cost of doing that, given that the economy is still solid, is very low.” How reassuring the FED decision is to American consumers remains to be seen, as does the nature of the low risk the FED chairman feels about waiting for “further clarity.” In the interim, HPS is advising businesses large and small to maximize cash flow and minimize the need for any type of loan. This means maximizing sales revenue and gross margin, minimizing expense and cost, and maximizing net profit.

03-19-25: “NBDA hosts key advocacy panels discussing e-bike safety and standards and growing ridership and retailer foot traffic.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “Last week, the National Bicycle Dealer Association (NBDA) brought together experts and industry leaders for two panels that are shaping the future of the bicycle industry. The Bicycle Industry Retailer Focused E-Bike Safety & Standards Panel was held on March 11, and the Growing Ridership and Retailer Foot Traffic Panel convened on March 13. Together, these discussions aimed to address some of the most pressing issues and opportunities regarding e-bike and lithium-ion battery safety and education, and the pressing need for increased ridership and sustainable ridership to benefit bicycle retailers. The panel, composed of retailers, suppliers, and industry experts, shared viewpoints on these important issues and recognized the importance of forming best practices to give all at stake the best outcome.” HPS ANALYSIS: NBDA is demonstrating leadership in two very important initiatives for the future of the bicycle business in North America. While overall safety is important, e-bike and lithium-ion battery safety is high-visibility and includes the urgent problems of property loss, injuries, and fatalities coupled with the importation of dangerous lithium-ion batteries and a uniform and safe end-of-life disposal initiative. Simultaneously, there is a need to grow ridership and retail foot traffic. NBDA posts the 90-minute quarterly panel meetings on its website and on YouTube. HPS urges readers to not only watch the previous panel sessions, but sign up to participate in future panel sessions. 

03-20-25: “New CEO at Rad Power Bikes to focus on physical retail shift.” BIKE europe: “Rad Power Bikes, which began as a U.S. direct-to-consumer brand, has appointed Kathi Lentzsch as its new chief executive officer (CEO). With deep experience in transforming both consumer-facing and B2B businesses, including retail, she will oversee the company's strategic pivot to focus on physical retail. Founded in 2007, Rad Power was one of the online brands that took the market by storm with the support of massive investments at the start of the decade. The company currently serves riders across the U.S. and Canada and has nine RadRetail locations and more than 1,200 retail and service partners across North America. In 2023, the brand pulled out of the European market ’in order to be competitive and successful in the long term’ in North American markets. Rad’s e-bikes and accessories are all designed in-house at its Seattle headquarters. Retail shift: Kathi Lentzsch’s extensive background also includes leadership roles outside of the bicycle industry. ‘Rad Power Bikes is at an inflection point, shifting from a direct-to-consumer model to a more retail-focused approach, and it’s an incredible time to come on board. This shift creates new opportunities to reach more riders, strengthen customer relationships, and evolve the brand in meaningful ways,’ said Lentzsch. Previous leadership experience: Lentzsch was previously the CEO at Bartell Drugs, where she successfully led the company through the pandemic, strategic and innovative changes, and the merger of the company with Rite-Aid. She led the turnaround and repositioning of Pottery Barn, transforming it into a well-known premium home brand. Kathi’s extensive background also includes leadership roles at Pier 1 Imports and Cost Plus World Market, gaining deep expertise in retail operations and brand positioning.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS finds it very interesting that BIKE europe provided more detail about the reasons for the appointment of Kathi Lentzsch as CEO of Rad Power Bikes, and her extensive background in retail, compared to what we have seen so far in the American trade press. There is little doubt given her extensive experience that Rad Power Bikes is moving rapidly toward a hybrid DTC / specialty retail distribution system that HPS will watch very closely as a potential model for the future.

03-20-25: “Can Taiwan's leading ICT sector revitalize the e-bike industry?” BIKE europe: “Taiwan's leading role in the international market for ICT [Note: ICT = information and communications technology] products could play an important role in regenerating the supply chain for e-bikes. In 2017-2018, the country's bicycle industry made a successful transition to the production of e-bikes. The strong focus on this high-value product category gave Taiwan the opportunity to move forward in this innovative market. However, the strong fluctuations in supply and demand have seen Taiwan completely lose momentum in the e-bike market. Taiwan gained a strong position as an e-bike supplier for the European and American markets from 2019. This was short-lived since the industry plunged into an inventory crisis. In value, Taiwan’s e-bike exports in 2024 dropped to a pre-2019 level. In volume, the fluctuation is even bigger as Taiwan is now back to the same level as when it made the transition to e-bike production. Taiwan’s position at the very beginning of the supply chain has made the industry seriously suffer from this inventory crisis. What are the options for the industry to win back its position? More sustainable business models needed: The transition to more sustainable business models will be in the lead of many discussions at the upcoming Taipei Cycle Show which opens its doors from 26-29 March. The strategy of just producing and selling bicycles and e-bikes one-on-one is not the only way to move forward anymore. ESG remains very relevant to stay competitive, but it should go hand-in-hand with a transition to become an innovative high-tech micro-mobility solution provider.’ New opportunities? Cycling has become, besides sports and performance, a mobility solution targeted at urban dwellers with a different perception of ownership and different expectations of the service provided. ‘The days of investing in another new e-bike or bicycle brand are over. That is too unpredictable, takes too much marketing costs, and we all know what inventory might lead to,’ a private equity investor said. ‘Everybody is looking at new mobility solutions.’ Will this open the door to new opportunities?” HPS ANALYSIS: We recommend that our readers find this article and read it in its entirety. Why? Because it is, at least BIKE europe’s strategic analysis of ICT, which is an umbrella term that includes any communication device, encompassing radio, television, cell phones, computer and network hardware, satellite systems, and so on, that can be incorporated into an electric bicycle. It couples Taiwan’s leadership in ICT with the strategic initiative of incorporating ICT into e-bike operating systems to bring communications and connectivity to revitalize the e-bike business. HPS finds this to be a very interesting strategic initiative that is being suggested by our friends at BIKE europe as they prepare for the Taipei Cycle Show. 

03-21-25: “Ideal Bike ends 2024 with 27.5 percent revenue drop.” BIKE europe: “Ideal Bike Corporation with its headquarters in Taiwan, also has operations in China, Vietnam, and Poland … Taiwan´s third-largest bicycle manufacturer Ideal Bike Corporation significantly reduced its costs in 2024, according to the limited financial information communicated by the company. However, last year's revenue of TWD 2.65 billion (€737.46 mln) still represented a year-on-year drop of 27.5 percent. As a whole, Taiwan exported 47 percent fewer e-bikes in 2024, so a dip in the financial performance of its leading manufacturers was to be expected. Both Giant Group and Merida reported that they had offset multi-million one-time losses in 2024. Radical cost-cutting strategies: During 2024, Ideal Bike was not only struggling with the current poor global market situation but also with the remaining effects of the 2023 insolvencies of two of its major customers, Advanced Sports GmbH and VanMoof. The good news is that the radical cost-cutting strategies Ideal Bike implemented in 2024 have had a direct impact on the final net loss reduction. Compared to the previous year of TWD 291.23 million (€8.11 mln), this was reduced by 20 percent to TWD 232.95 million (€6.48 million). Unfortunately, Ideal Bike has not communicated any further figures yet. Unlike its compatriot manufacturers Giant Group and Merida, which are also listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange, Ideal Bike only publishes what is legally required for a company listed on the local stock exchange, and any further insights are not given. In any case, the further loss reduction shows that Ideal Bike is slowly getting back on track. HPS ANALYSIS:  This is another in-depth article by Jo Beckendorff that we recommend to our readers. The 2024 financial disclosure by Ideal Bike rounds out the stories about the top three Taiwanese-based, public bicycle/e-bike original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Like Giant and Merida, Ideal owns manufacturing facilities in China and has OEM customers worldwide. The Ideal financial story also discloses the demise of two customers, Advanced Sports GmbH and VanMoof. While the figures reported indicate that Ideal performed somewhat better than its two larger Taiwanese-based competitors, there still isn’t enough information or financial data to do a strategic or operational comparison.

Contact Jay Townley, jay@humanpoweredsolutions.com