2020....A Nantucket Sleighride!
2020
…A Nantucket Sleighride![1]
By
JayTownley
We are atthe beginning of the third decade of the new Millennium. 2019 was a year of disruption forbicycle business supply chains, stress on economic systems and uncertaintyabout sourcing and distribution channels.
2019 was also a seminal year when important new businessmodels, innovations and technology that will influence the future of theAmerican bicycle business and Micromobility emerged, and those focused onMicromobility, as new and separate economic systems.
All inall, 2019 was not a particularly pleasant experience for the traditional-mainstreamAmerican bicycle business, although it was a relatively better business yearfor the European bike business, and the American bicycle brands doing businessin Europe, primarily because of ebikes. It was also a relatively good year forthe emerging new economic systems around the world.
The new decadethat starts January 1, 2020, is a leap year and the first time in 60-years thatthe Gregorian calendar coincides with the start of the 12-year cycle in theChinese zodiac and the year of the rat, beginning in January with Chinese, orLunar New Year.
It isalso an election year in Taiwan and America. The Taiwanese election in January is of importance to the Americanbicycle business because it is estimated that over half (or more) of currentsourcing, primarily in China, is owned or controlled by the Taiwanese bicycleindustry.
Early in2019, as the U.S. – China Trade War was heating up the future of Tsai Ing-wen,the current Taiwanese President was bleak at best. Nine months later American trade policy and PresidentTsai’s reshoring strategy have her positioned in most polls to win a secondterm, although the opposition will probably win control of thelegislature. A second term for PresidentTsai is projected as generally a win for the American bicycle business supplychain.
While theTaiwanese election will be over in January, the American election will just beramping up. According to The Economist[2], two subjects willdominate social media, news and headlines around the world in 2020: America’spresidential-election campaign and the weakness of the global economy. Quoting the Economist:
“Both will induce anxiety,and each will influence the other. Itwill be a volatile year, characterized by unstable, angry and polarizedpolitics, and an enfeebled economic outlook for the world, regardless of whowins on November 3rd, when American voters go to the polls.”
Americaitself has hitherto been least affected by global growth slowing in 2019, andAmerican consumers ended 2019 still confident and ready to spend.
But lookfor that confidence to start ebbing in 2020, as the stock market stumbles, thefiscal boost disappears and the jobless rate inches upwards.
There isa high probability America will escape a formal recession, particularly sincethe Federal Reserve will act promptly to reduce interest rates further. However, the mood in the country will begloomy as the longest expansion on record slowly comes to an end.
Retailsales of bicycles of all types and 20-inch wheel & larger have beenessentially flat in terms of units in the U.S. for the past decade, whileretail dollars have increased.
TheSpecialty Bicycle Retail, or Bike Shop channel of trade has experienced adecline in the total number of American store fronts, but has maintained retailsales of about 3 million units per year while controlling over half of totalretail sales dollars of new 20-inch wheel & larger bicycles.
Allindications ten-months year-to-date are that 2019 will be another flat year,with no growth in 20-inch wheel & larger wheel new bicycle unit sales orretail dollars.
Thisfinding is complicated by the imposition of punitive import tariffs on newbicycles and components from China, the source country for most new bicyclesand components sold in the U.S.
Some ofthe punitive tariffs were passed along to consumers in the form of priceincreases, and some were absorbed by the supply chain and were not passed alongas retail price increases. Punitivetariffs affecting the American bicycle market started with the application ofSection 232 tariffs March 23, 2018, Section 301, List 1 July 6, 2018, Section301, List 2 August 23, 2018, and Section 301, List 3 on imports arriving afterJune 1, 2019.
There isa probability that the passing along of at least some of the price increases toconsumers has had a dampening effect on the sale of new 20-inch & largerwheel bicycles in the American market through the 12-months of 2019 resultingin another flat to down year in unit volume. The impact on 12-month YTD 2019 retail dollar volume has yet to bedetermined and will have to wait for year-end data during the first quarter of2020.
The specterof the American stock market stumbling will serve to compound weaknesselsewhere in the world as it becomes a reality.
China’seconomy will gradually slow further, as its government strains to provideenough stimulus to keep its growth targets in sight. This will serve to further slow the alreadycontracting retail bicycle market, creating financial strain on the Taiwaneseand American brands doing business in the Chinese consumer market.
Itappears that Europe will face a particularly difficult 2020 because of the EU’sreliance on foreign demand, particularly from China. Germany, the largest European market begins2020 close to recession.
Britain’sfinally reaching a reckoning with Brexit will leave the country divided, andunfortunately damaged and diminished.
Thiscould have a negative impact, slowing the surging ebike sales growth throughoutthe EU and dampening sales of the Taiwanese and American bicycle brands doingbusiness in European markets.
GDP
Monetary stimulus will help keep global GDP growth ataround 3.2% in 2020, just above the 2019 figure.
America’s Federal Reserve, as noted will cut interest ratesto take the edge off a potential slowdown. China will do the same.
Overshadowing the business climate will be America’sgreater protectionism. The trade warwon’t ease much, and other countries will be under pressure to pick sides.
In the worst case, tensions between America and China couldmorph into a global currency war, which would be a bad situation for Americanbicycle business importers.
So longas this is avoided, there could be trade growth with Taiwanese and other
Asian bicycle sources able to capitalize on China’s trade difficulties with theU.S.
Interestingly,much needed infrastructure growth in potential bicycle business sourcecountries like Vietnam could come from China’s “Belt and Road” investmentinitiative.
Sourcecountries like Taiwan, Vietnam and Cambodia will have to figure out how toposition themselves, in trade and technology, between a Chinese sphere ofinfluence and an American one.
Americanbicycle brands and related products will have to craft strategies incorporatingshort term initiatives including sourcing, distribution and uncontested marketspace that support mid and long-term positioning for the future.
Trade
Althoughthe United States will succeed in signing a Phase 1 mini-deal with China onJanuary 15, the bulk of America’s punitive tariffs on Chinese goods and itsgrowing determination to limit China’s access to American technology willcontinue.
This andthe lack of detail about what China and the U.S. must do to comply with Phase1, and the fact that confirming compliance has not been locked down is the“Catch 22”[3] the American bicyclebusiness faces in 2020.
Accordingto Bloomberg Policy & Politics: “How much Beijing complies with the recentagreement will set the tone for relations in an election year.” As of this writing China and the U.S. havedifferent understandings of how quickly remaining U.S. punitive tariffs will beremoved once a Phase 1 deal is signed January 15, 2020.
One ofthe objectives of the U.S. is to greatly reduce the trade deficit with China sothat the U.S. sells more to China than it buys. U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer says that under thePhase 1 deal China will have to double imports of American goods andservices. Additionally, the U.S. isdemanding China protect intellectual property and technology transfer.
Thebiggest immediate issue for the U.S. Administration will be determining how itwill monitor Chinese compliance, and perhaps more importantly, what it will doabout noncompliance.
For themost part the American bicycle business is an interested participant that haslimited intellectual property and technology transfer issues with its Chinesesupply chain.
Some ofthis is because many bicycles and related products are not high-tech, butmostly because the American brands and companies have supplier agreements withthe Taiwanese owners or JV partners with manufacturing facilities in China thatprotect intellectual property and technology transfer under international andU.S. law.
Where theAmerican bicycle business is involved and vitally interested is tariffs, andwhat punitive U.S. tariffs on bicycles and related items imported from Chinawill be rolled back under the Phase 1 and any subsequent deals.
What hasbeen disclosed so far is that the U.S. is only lowering punitive tariffs from15-percent to 7.5-percent on the smallest tranche of Chinese goods, which arethe Section 301, List 3 imports arriving in the U.S. after June 1, 2019. This covers primarily bicycle accessory andcomponents and does not cover complete bicycles.
The U.S.has already announced that in a show of good faith for China agreeing to thePhase 1 deal it has delayed indefinitely the Section 301, List 4 punitivetariffs that were scheduled to become effective December 15, 2019.
List 4would have added bicycle related imports from China that were not on Lists 1thru 3, including lights, helmets, unspecified parts and accessories, appareland footwear.
The Phase1 deal leaves in force and effect punitive tariffs imposed and not subject toexceptions or suspension under Section 232 (steel and aluminum) effective March23, 2018, Section 301, List 1 effective July 6, 2018, and Section 301, List 2effective August 23, 2018.
This meansthat most complete bicycles and ebikes imported into the U.S. from China arestill subject to regular and punitive tariffs, with the exception of12-inch,14-inch, 16-inch, 20-inch and 24-inch wheel bicycles, that were granted andexclusion from the punitive tariffs. This exclusion reportedly went into effect mid-December 2019 and expiresAugust 7, 2020.
OnDecember 31, 2019 the USTR announced an exclusion for HTS numbers that whencombined with the other 20-inch wheel bicycles excluded from punitive tariffsin mid-December 2019 results in all 12-inch wheel through 24-inch wheelbicycles imported from China being excluded from the punitive tariffs throughpresumably August 7, 2020. The USTR alsoexcluded certain bike saddles imported from China.
Theexclusion also stipulated that U.S. importers of 12-inch through 24-inch wheelbicycles and certain bike saddles are entitled to recover the punitive tariffsthey have paid on the specific HTS numbers covered in the exclusions. While the importers are entitled to recoverthe punitive tariff payments they made, experience indicates that this might bean expensive and lengthy process.
Earlierin 2019 the Administration had granted exclusions to narrow product categories,including some single-speed adult road bikes, some cruisers, carbon fiberframes valued under $600 and some wired cycle-computers.
For Chinaand the American bicycle business the issue of punitive tariffs and the rapidrollback of all these additional tariffs that are both still in force andeffect and outside of the Phase 1 deal is of paramount importance.
AsBloomberg Politics & Policies reports, Beijing is insisting on rapidrollbacks in U.S. punitive tariffs for “simply having reached this deal.” If this is reasonably factual, this is theissue that will most likely sink the current deal and any hope of a Phase 2, orany comprehensive trade deal with China in 2020.
The USTRhas indicated that the Administration prefers a discretionary approach tolowering punitive tariffs contingent upon commitments made by China beingmet. Normally the U.S. and China wouldagree to scheduled tariff rollbacks based on metrics like performance or time. The reported lack of a schedule that bothsides agree on and adhere to is at the core of the concern about the success ofPhase 1.
Assumingno schedule emerges from the January 15 signing of Phase 1, we suggest threedate ranges to watch for to gauge the volatility and potential disruptive impactof the trade situation between the U.S. and China for the rest of the year.
- Byearly in the second quarter (April to mid-May) of 2020 we should be getting anidea of how well China is following through on its Phase 1 commitments.
- Bythe summer and early fall (July to mid-September) we should know withoutquestion if China is making acceptable progress on its’ Phase 1 commitments –or not.
BySeptember 2020, if not earlier, the Administration will have to decide betweenescalating the trade dispute and reigniting the trade war with China – or riskappearing unwilling to challenge Beijing in the middle of an election campaign.
This is because the Administration, and the incumbentcannot afford to be branded “soft on China” by his Democratic challenger. No Democratic candidate will run a campaignchampioning a more co-operative strategic relationship with China. If anything, the pressure to be moreaggressive will grow.
Depending on who the Democratic challenger is adestabilizing link between politics and economics could kick-in. Fearful of a radical overhaul of swathes ofAmerican business financial markets may stumble further if, as could be thecase, the election seems close.
There isno question 2020 is going to be a turbulent, disruptive year for internationaltrade and potentially for supply chains built on the principals ofglobalization, like the traditional, mainstream American bicycle business andits dependence on Taiwan, China and South East Asia.
FutureTrade Probabilities
The twomost important trade issues to the American bicycle business going forward from2020 are:
- [4] and to decouple from China and other developed productioneconomies and focus on dramatically reducing or eliminating trade deficits byproducing and manufacturing more in the U.S. and negotiating bilateral andunilateral[5] trade agreements.
In 2020the results of the trade war with China and the national election in the U.S.will either yield a slower and constructive transition away from the old and tothe new global economy that will unfold over the next decade, or a more rapid anddisruptive protectionist transition that will unfold over the next four to fiveyears and lead to much more pronounced shifts to the new global economy duringthe second half of this decade.
Importsfrom China and any other country will need to be strategically negotiated to minimizethe impact of U.S. import restrictions and create collaborations and alliancesthat take maximum advantage of the new emerging global economy for the purposeof establishing assembly and manufacturing in the U.S. and other target consumermarkets around the world with the emphasis on speed to market and gross marginreturn on inventory and investment (GIMROI)[6].
Thecurrent Administration has been straight forward in its promotion of makingconsumer and industrial goods in the U.S. Depending on the results of the 2020 and subsequent 2024 and 2028national elections and the impact of the Climate Emergency on the geopolitics ofthe U.S., eco-friendly variations and economic options will emerge that combinemade and grown locally with global sourcing and collaboration.
DisruptiveTrends in 2020
Trade isobviously the single most important and disruptive issue facing the mainstreamAmerican bicycle business and the emerging Micromobility economies, as coveredin detail above.
However,there are seven trends that we are following that have or will be disruptiveand which we are advising clients to both follow and adjust their strategicbusiness planning to accommodate or take full advantage of.
RideShare, orSelf-Service bicycle rental and bicycle-sharing systems have been gainingground and expanding in America and are now firmly established as part ofMicromobility and the last-mile solution for 200 cities andmunicipalities[7].
Goinginto 2020 two trade associations, the North American Bike Share Association(NABSA), www.nabsa.net and the National Association of CityTransportation Officials (NACTO), www.nacto.org represent what isprojected to be a significant part of a $200 billion to $300 billionMicromobility business in the U.S. by the year 2030.
Chinesedockless ride share brands have come and gone in a blur of 24 to 36 months, butthe bicycle ride share economy has been transformed by dockless as well aselectric bikes.
Thelatest innovation in the form of electric scooters has spread quickly and hasbeen incorporated into most municipal ride-share programs – but not withoutcontroversy and rancor on the part of city governments and the public.
GovernorAndrew Cuomo of New York vetoed a bill the end of December 2019 that would havelegalized both ebikes and e-scooters, and in the process angered supporters ofenvironmentally friendly last-mile solutions.
However,Governor Cuomo said he would introduce a similar bill right after the new year– with the safety requirements included that he said were the reason for hisveto.
Thisaddresses another issue that the whole bicycle business, including bike rideshare faces, and that is rider safety! Governor Cuomo wants a requirement that riders of battery poweredconveyances wear helmets, which is similar to what the National TransportationSafety Board recommended in its November 2019 Safety Research Report onBicyclist Safety.
E-scootershave been quickly adopted by the Micromobility ride share business and manymunicipalities as “battery powered conveyances” and while there is still agreat deal of controversy the traditional mainstream bicycle business and NABSArepresenting the new Micromobility economy have jointed together in advocatingthat e-scooters be included within the definition of ebikes, and in somestates, bicycles.
Thetraditional, mainstream bicycle business, or the old economy, has beentracked at a total annual retail revenue of $6 billion for the better part ofthe last decade.
Micromobilityin America essentially took root with the 4 to 5 bike ride-share systems in2010, defined by NACTO as having at least 10 stations with docks and 100ride-share bicycles. By 2018 NACTO reported 55 bike ride-share systems with atleast 10 stations and 100 ride-share bicycles from which people took 28 milliontrips.
Asalready noted, Micromobility is projected to be a significant part of a $200billion to $300 billion business in the U.S. focusing on sustainable,environmentally friendly transportation connecting the first and last mile of,or completing journeys to work, school, shopping by the year 2030.
Thebrands, companies and investors already involved in Micromobility, or the neweconomy, except for B-Cycle which is owned by Trek, are not from or involved inthe old economy, and include:
B-Cycle founded in 2008 andowned by Trek Bicycle Company
Motivate founded in 2009 andowned by Lyft
Jump founded in 2010 andowned by Uber
Lime Transportation Companyfounded in 2017 private, largest investor Alphabet
Zagster founded in 2007private
Spin founded in 2017owned byFord
PBSC Urban Solutions founded2008
SpecialtyBicycle Retailer, or bike shops have the best current opportunity to becomeinvolved in the bike ride share portion of the new Micromobility businesseconomy by offering rentals, including renting an ebike with the rental feeapplied to an eventual purchase.
Also,bike shops and brands have already started to lease both high-end bicycles andebikes, which could become the preferred way of acquiring access to, but notactually owning going forward into the new decade.
We arerapidly heading toward a time when bicycle advocates will finally achieve whatthey have desired since the end of World War II. There will be more Americans riding bicyclesand other forms of human powered transportation.
Thanks toMicromobility and bicycle ride share, bicycle ridership and participationincluding ebikes will reach double the incident rates of 2019 during thisdecade, but at the same time retail sales of bicycles will be flat todeclining!
Thebicycle business trade associations will need to change the metrics used tomeasure success.
There aremany factors that have triggered a renewed interest in, and are increasingsales of Electric Bicycles in the U.S., including the rapid deploymentof ebikes in bicycle ride share fleets, and the aging of the population coupledwith the desire of aging baby boomers to be mobile while growing healthier andliving longer.
Somecombination of these demographic changes is highly likely to trigger the nextsurge in the sale of electric bicycles, which didn’t emerge as strongly in 2017or 2018 as originally thought - but will take off as a part of the futureMicromobility movement.
In 2018 ebikes were the strongest sellingretail category in the bike shop and specialty outdoor channels that togetheraccounted for 19-percent of all new bicycles sales and 63-percent of annual newbicycle direct effect retail dollars.
The U.S.bicycle market is much different than the European bicycle market that it isoften erroneously compared to. With thissaid, ebikes will grow to become a major product segment in the Americanbicycle business, but we seriously doubt that it will gain the market sharerealized in bicycle friendly countries like Holland and Germany.
As already noted, in the month of July 2018 a trade warthat erupted between the U.S. and China, the source country for a very highpercentage of compete ebikes and ebike motors sold in and used to fabricateebikes assembled in the U.S.
On August 7, 2018 theUnited States Trade Representative announced that the round of tariff increasesthat included ebikes and ebike motors had been approved.
This meant thattariffs on electric bicycles imported under Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS)headings 8711.60.00 or 8711.90.01 increase from zero to an import tariff of 25percent.
Tariffs on e-bikemotors imported under HTS heading 8501.31.40 increased from four percent to 29percent. The tariffs went into effect on August 23, 2018 and are still beingimposed and collected as of January 2020 and are not anticipated to be changedby signing of the Phase 1 trade deal between China and the U.S. January 15,2020.
The impact of the25-percent tariff is being felt in consumer pricing as ebike brands decide ifthey will absorb all or a portion of the increase in their cost, or pass someor all of the increase on to retailers and consumers in the form of priceincreases.
Despite this dampener,the natural growth trends for the ebike market in the U.S. remain positive andthe probability of substantial growth going forward remains high.
All significantbicycle brands have added ebikes to their lines, including the high-end Trek,Specialized and Giant road and MTB offerings for 2020.
Brands and allchannels of retail can benefit by adding ebikes and related accessoriesincluding replacement parts and service.
Demographics and theresulting changes in purchasing behavior, including the preference of youngerconsumers not to “own” assets and things will make rental and leasingoptions popular.
As the Circulareconomy expands there will be a growing market for used ebikes and refurbishedlithium-ion batteries.
The trade associationswill need to consider including segmented and category definitions for ebikesto insure proper gathering of retail sales data for analysis. Ebikes are now designed and available in theRoad, MTB and Lifestyle / Leisure product categories and are quickly becomingan option within categories and not just a category choice.
Internetand Retail are nowintertwined. Bricks-and-mortar retailerswill struggle in the face of relentless competition from the likes ofAmazon. The situation is particularlydire in America where more than 12,000 stores faced extinction in 2019[8] and the number could riseas the economy slows in 2020.
Risingpolitical uncertainty and changing consumer tastes will put the brakes onretail-sales growth globally, which is forecast to drop to 2-percent in 2020.
As onlineshopping increases, e-commerce revenue in the U.S. is forecast to increase to$120 billion in the coming year.
Walmart,the largest employer in the U.S. and the county’s largest retailer of bicyclesis reaping the benefits of making a substantial strategic investment in growingits online retail business which will thrive in 2020 despite being challengedby Amazon.
Specialtybicycle retailers can gain the advantage over their online competitors by becomingomnichannel and developing a retail methodology that integrates the personaltouch that can customize products and service to an individual customer whileusing 24-7 availability as a tool in creating a sticky third place that isvalued in their community.
Also, thepurpose of retail stores is changing and BOPIS, or buy online, pick-up in-storehas gained a lot of traction and is a hot trend that bike shop and otherspecialty bicycle retailers can take advantage of as a key component ofomnichannel strategies.
Thespecialty bicycle retail supply chain needs to focus on collaboration andshorting time to market and enhancing gross margin return on inventory up anddown the supply chain.
The massmerchant and full-line sporting goods channels will experiment with sales ofebikes and leasing to attract up market consumers to relatively high-pricedebike products as the middle-class consumer continues to decline.
AsAmerican consumers become environmentally conscious adapting a Circularbusiness model will become particularly viable for bike shops and specialtybicycle retailers.
ClimateEmergency iswhat Climate Change and Global Warming were called in the last decade!
Use ofrecycled materials and formal and proactive recycling and sustainability andthe effect on the Climate Emergency is going to become increasingly importantto consumers – and will be an important piece of strategic planning andsourcing tactics for manufactures, brands, distributors and retailers.
GretaThunberg and the Climate Strike movement have gained the attention of activistsof all ages around the world, and the Climate Emergency is rapidly finding itsway into global geopolitics.
TheClimate Emergency will become a major factor and will be debated as a policy plankby the time the Democratic and Republican conventions roll-around this summer.
Candidatesfrom both parties will be confronted by young people leading voters of all agesin demanding promises and pledges to be proactive and take immediate actionconcerning all the issued surrounding the climate and the environment.
Companies,brands and retailers are going to have to decide if they get actively involved,one way or the other, or try to stay on neutral ground and take no activeposition. This will have to be astrategic and a moral decision that will be scrutinized by more than the boardof directors for the good of the company and brand, because in the Internet agesuch decisions will be judged by its employees and its customers.
Themainstream American bicycle business and the Micromobility economies will beimpacted as the Climate Emergency and its weather events restrict the abilityand desire of customers and consumers to ride and exercise outside.
SmartTrainers and Indoor Cycles have come into their own, partly because of the ClimateEmergency and partly because fit athletic bicyclists are time starved and wantan efficient and stimulating experience from each riding session. The endorphin rush is no longer good enough!
In 1990trainers were primarily rollers and stationary exercisers. At the beginning of the new millennium indoortrainers had evolved to wind, electric and hydraulic resistance and robustframes that could be used by amateur and professional bicyclists to warm upbefore a race.
Over thelast twenty years rollers have become old school and are rarely used, whiletrainers have become more sophisticated, spanned a whole new generation ofIndoor Cycles from unplugged trainers with no electronics or connectivity to sophisticatedelectronics that can use an App to micro-adjust the fit to match the ridersbicycle, replicate the riders shifting and transmission system, monitor fullbody function throughout a ride, measure work and connect through the Internetto high quality virtual reality riding scenarios and competitive environmentswith other riders from around the world.
Andonline providers of ride and race software like Zwift, Rouvy, The Sufferfestand TrainerRoad have formed marketing alliances with Smart Trainer and IndoorCycle brands like Saris, Wahoo, Stages and Wattbike.
Thissegment of indoor cycling has gone from an accessory to a full-blown categorywith at least three distinct and definable product segments. The bicycle business trade associations willneed to modify the criteria for collecting retail sales data to include:
- Unpluggedindoor trainers to accommodate a bicycle
- Plugged-inindoor trainers with connectivity to the Internet to accommodate a bicycle
- IndoorCycle that adjusts to an individual bicycle with connectivity to the Internetand duplicates a complete riding experience while plugged into ride simulationsoftware.
Zwift hasraised millions with the goal of having virtual racing become a professionalsport – and even an Olympic event. In September of2019 Zwift signed an agreement with the International Cycling Union (UCI) tohold the first virtual Cycling Esports World Championships in 2020.
Therewill be rapid growth of the Indoor Cycle segment of this multifaceted category andthe top-end Indoor Cycling segment features retail price points from $1,500 to$4,000 and subscription-based ride and race software. Look for one or more top tier bicycle brandsto enter the segment with Indoor Cycles.
REI, theleader in the Specialty Outdoor retail channel is already a national retailerof the Wahoo Indoor Cycle and other Specialty Retailers, including Bike Shopshave an opportunity to expand their representation of this emerging andevolving category.
TheSummer Olympics in Tokyo will generate interest in all the Cycling Events,including BMX and the Sport of Cycling is going to get a boost throughexposure to a broader global audience that is huge compared to the TV coveragethe Tour de France and other Grand Tours get in the middle of the night – theSummer Olympics will get prime-time coverage.
Rock climbing,skateboarding, surfing and karate have been added as Olympic sports, andbaseball and softball are returning to the games after 12-years. These new “sports” along with the return ofseveral old favorites and the continuation of young and old cycling events willhelp attract an audience in the U.S.
There isalso the technology! Beyond the avidcyclists, a wider audience of Americans will be interested in watching thetechnology from the UK and Australia that is being hyped now and will becovered by the news media for the six months leading up to the summer games.
BMX isalready the leading sports related activity in the American bicycle market andas noted, it should get a nice up-tick from Olympic exposure – along with thetrack events where a lot of the new technology will be showcased up front andpersonal.
Bikeshops and Specialty Bicycle Retailers have a golden opportunity to promote andhost Olympic viewing events at their stores through the summer Olympic cyclingevents.
Technologyandinnovation go beyond the summer Olympics and Bosch will be hyping its SmartGlasses at the Consumer Electronics Show, or CES that starts January 10 in LasVegas.
We arealso confident that Bosch will feature it new technology, including it SmartGlasses at the CABDA Trade Show in January, February and March.
3Dprinting has been a topic covered in our predictions about future technologyfor five years or more, and 2020 will be the year that 3D produced productshave found their way to the bicycle business.
HEXR hasintroduced a fully custom bicycle helmet that is manufactured through a 3Dprocess of printing from a unique headscan.
Specializedand Italian brand Fizik have both introduce adaptive bike saddles utilizing a3D printing process called digital light synthesis to build an individualsaddle that can have varying densities of cushioning depending on what therider prefers.
Webelieve this is just the start, and 2020 is the year that technology will beintroduced in several categories of componentry and accessories, including communicationand connectivity.
Pollutionand air quality issues will drive purification and filtering systems forcycling helmets. Safety will bringmotorcycle clothing-airbag technology to bicycling along with enhancedreflectivity and innovations in active lighting, sensors and braking.
Thisconcludes our introduction to 2020 and our recommendations and insights for thecoming year. If you have questions orcomments, please email jay@humanpoweredsolutions.com
Thank Youand Enjoy the Future!
[1] Iam opposed to all forms of whale hunting, but historically, a “NantucketSleighride”is an archaic term from the earlydays of industrial whaling, when theanimals were harpooned from small open boats. Once harpooned, the whaleattempts to flee, but the rope attached to the harpoon drags the whalers'longboat along with it. The term refers to Nantucket, Massachusetts, the center of the American whaling industry; as well as the speed associated with riding in a horse-drawn sleigh. A Nantucket sleighride was extremely dangerous.
[2] TheEconomist: The World In 2020, on display until 2/18/2020
[3] A Catch-22: is a dilemma or difficult circumstance from which there is noescape because of mutually conflicting or dependent conditions.
[4] Globalization InTransition: The Future Of Trade And Value Chains published in January 2019 byMcKinsey Global Institute
[5] A unilateral trade agreement is a commerce treaty that anation imposes without regard to others. It benefits that one country only. Itis unilateral because other nations have no choice in the matter. ...Another type is a bilateral agreement between two countries.
[6] See Human Powered Solutions WhitePaper: Globalization and Global Trade are in Transition, not decline
[7]Reported by NABSA
[8]The Economist World In 2020 edition, page 115.