Micromobility Is the Future!
Micromobility is already disrupting the automobile industry and has started to disrupt transportation and transport and is contributing to the disruption of the America bicycle business.
WhatIs Micromobility?
It iscurrently defined as urban transport in sub 500kg (1,102.3 pound) vehicles,that are human-powered, electrically assisted or electrically powered.
2018:The Year of Micromobility
During 2018 the American bicycle business and relatedindustry changed profoundly as the economics of the traditional business weredisrupted in part by the larger transportation and mobility sectors as theyevolved and focused on Micromobility. According to the National Association of City Transportation Officials(NACTO):
- Micromobilityoffers some of the best city-based transportation mode options because they arethe fastest way across town and can be parked just about anywhere.
Dockless pedal (non-electric) ride share bikes, whichrapidly spread like wild-fire across the U.S. in 2016-2017 – have largelydisappeared from American cities, with just 3 million trips in a handful ofcities in 2018.
Electric bikes emerged as a popular option, accounting in2018 for 6.5 million trips, 6 million in dockless systems and 500,000 instation-based systems.
What is Shared Micromobility?
Accordingto NACTO Shared Micromobility “…encompasses all shared-use fleets ofsmall, fully or partially human-powered vehicles, such as bikes, e-bikes ande-scooters.” All fit inside the definition of Micromobility that we presentedpreviously.
Uber,Lyft (automotive ride share) and Ford (automotive) have all made recentacquisitions in Shared Micromobility and Bosch (electric bicycle), along withJump, owned by Uber, Motivate, owned by Lyft, BCycle owned by Trek are allmembers of the North American Bike Share Association (NABSA).
In 2018,Americans took 36.5 million trips on station-based bike share systems and as wehave already referenced, 38.5 million trips on shared e-scooters.
Why Micromobility?
Micromobilityservices offer a tantalizing solution to address the first mile/last-mileproblem and an opportunity to shrink transit deserts (neighborhoodsunderserviced by public transit services); limited survey data suggests thatsupport for e-scooters tends to be highest among lower-income users.
ButMicromobility’ s potential extends well beyond connecting people to masstransit. More than half of the car trips taken annually in the United Statescover less than five miles (8 kilometers), making those journeys open toshort-range alternative modes such as e-scooters, bicycles and e-bikes.
Micromobilityinvestor and evangelist Oliver Bruce estimates that more than 1.4 trillionmiles of annual US passenger travel—and more than 4 trillion milesglobally—could be converted to Micromobility modes, an addressable market potentiallyworth hundreds of billions of dollars.
Micromobilityrapidly attracts cash and customers
Accordingto McKinsey, Micromobility has already attracted a strong customer base and hasdone so roughly two to three times faster than either car sharing or ridehailing. In just a few years, for instance, several Micromobility start-upshave amassed valuations that exceed $1 billion.
Twocircumstances have driven this accelerated expansion:
First,most launches of shared Micromobility take place in conducive environments.
Micromobility appears to make people happy—it’s faster thancar-based trips in many situations, and users often say the freedom of being inthe fresh air traveling to their destinations while avoiding traffic jams putsa smile on their face.
Second,the economics of shared Micromobility are largely favorable to industryparticipants, generally ensuring lower break-even points.
Companiesfind it much easier to scale up Micromobility assets (for example, electricbikes) compared with car-based sharing solutions.
How big is themarket?
McKinseymodeled the baseline shared Micromobility market and created a forecast, whichrevealed a 2030 market potential of roughly US$200 billion to US$300 billionin the United States, US$100 billion to US$150 billion in Europe,and US$30 billion to US$50 billion in China.
Growing the shared Micromobility market
Whilethe base case represents a healthy market, the question arises: What is neededto grow the shared Micromobility market into a truly disruptive trillion-dollarbusiness?
For this market potential and mileage cannibalization to become a reality, citiesneed to support shared Micromobility proactively.
Whetherthe disruption Micromobility causes matches the hype generated so far willlargely depend on how cities react to the service.
Whilethe industry is hoping urban governments view Micromobility favorably as anantidote to congestion and pollution, and a way to provide consumers with anenjoyable alternative to gridlock, cities could instead see it negatively. In fact, some anecdotal evidence of thelatter has already surfaced.
So,in addition to building their businesses, Micromobility players will likelyhave to take proactive roles in lobbying for and shaping the industry in keyurban areas.
What about the traditional, mainstream American bicycle business?
Growing Micromobility to its full market potential will alsorequire an increase in the use of individually owned and individual investmentin human powered transportation including bicycles, electric assist bicycles,electric scooters and light electric vehicles of all types.
Electric bicycles represent one of theconnectors for growth
Electric bicycles represent one of theconnectors between the traditional mainstream American bicycle business and theemerging Micromobility ecosystem.
The reason: E-bikes are simply easier andmore fun for people to ride. The extra push from a motor makes previouslyunconquerable hills manageable, and for people with mobility issues, older residents, or those who have not biked in a long time, the assistmakes cycling more accessible.
Electric bikes also are effective in closingthe distance between the “enthusiast cyclist” commuter set (typically fit,middle-age men who commute in spandex) and people who just want a reliable, efficientand environmentally friendly way to get around their city.
The bottom line – a broad range of peoplelike electric bicycles. Accordingly, theyrepresent potential growth for the American bicycle business.
Bicycling Advocacy - disrupted and improved by Micromobility
For the last decade Federal funding for bicycling has averagedabout US$800-US$880 million per year with projects ranging from trails tobicycling paths and designated lanes in cities.
These funding levels were generally considered minimallyacceptable by the traditional mainstream American bicycle business trade andadvocacy associations – but are being challenged as not being adequate tosustain and grow the Micromobility movement in American cities.
There seems to be agreement among the large consulting firms inMcKinsey’s finding that: “…in addition to building their businesses, Micromobilityplayers will likely have to take proactive roles in lobbying for and shapingthe industry in key urban areas.”
Accordingly, it also seems obvious that the issues of overallsafety, accessibility and connectivity will require the Micromobility providersof the first mile/last-mile solution to become actively involved in bicyclingand pedestrian Advocacy relative to cities.
It is both logical and inevitable that the traditional Americanbicycle business and the new Micromobility ecosystem will come-together toadvance their mutual interests under the Micromobility banner and expand thebicycling, electric scooter and pedestrian access, connectivity and safetyfirst-mile/last-mile network throughout American cities and suburbs.
A reminder that America is not Europe
There has been a tendency over the last two decades to look toEurope as the example of what bicycle riding facilities and participation canbe in both the short-and-long term future in America.
The conventional wisdom that persists is that electric bicycles,or ebikes will be accepted and adapted by Americans in the same way they havebeen in Europe, where the category has grown over the last ten years to becomethe dominant category in the European market.
While we agree that there is little doubt that electric bicycleswill be accepted and will grow substantially in the American market, it willtake more time and there are and will be different reasons and motivations formarket acceptance than has been experienced in Europe, and will be much moredependent on the connections and boost given by Micromobility.
The role of technology
The rapid rise of Micromobility in the U.S. simply would not havebeen possible or be viable going forward without technology and specificallyhand-held phones, cell technology and Apps.
By the beginning of 2019 shared Micromobility technology hadexpanded to include the latest in docking technology and communication, newdockless technology and Apps, new e-scooter dockless technology and Apps andelectric bicycle options for both docking and dockless systems – all witheither server based or cloud based data collection and storage and AIanalysis.
Ride share bicycles and scooters have driven the rapid developmentof a range of technology that will continue to evolve, and will have an impacton the development of both smart bicycles and the next generation of componentryfor individual bicycles and electric bicycles that will contribute to thegrowth of Micromobility.
The future
Micromobility in form, function and definition didn’t exist48-months ago. It may not exist48-months from now…but it already has - and no matter what it is called in thefuture - will continue to disrupt the establishment and the traditionalchannels of trade and advocacy.
Human movement and transportation will continue to evolve andchange and will be served in some way, shape or form. Human Powered Solutions will be riding thewave, and whether it is Micromobility or its off-spring or replacement HPS willenjoy, participate, report, analyze, inform and advise its clients and fellowtravelers in our community of interest.
Look to The Future!
Note: A Micromobility White Paper isavailable as a PDF file from this website.