DOCTORS SAY RIDE A BIKE, PIZZA OVEN CONUNDRUM, AND WATCH FOR TRADE FRAUD
By Jay Townley
07 08 25: “Tariff uncertainty likely to weigh on global growth even after extended talks.” The Wall Street Journal: “Uncertainty about the terms under which trade will be conducted is a headwind for the global economy, but complete clarity is unlikely to be available to businesses even after freshly extended negotiations. President Trump Monday signed an executive order extending the date when his so-called reciprocal tariffs would take effect, with a pause previously scheduled to expire at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday. Economists expect higher tariffs to directly impede economic growth by weakening demand for goods in the U.S. and exports to that country from the rest of the world. But uncertainty also comes with a cost as businesses delay decisions to invest or hire while they seek clarity on their access to the world’s largest market. The extension announced Monday means that clarity will not come this week, as many businesses had hoped. But it also allows time for governments to negotiate tariffs that are lower than those Trump set out on April 2, and then paused … Most economists expect global economic growth to slow this year as a result of higher tariffs and increased uncertainty, but there are a range of possible outcomes that depend on how much clarity is available to businesses, and how high the barriers to trade rise … there are signs that the uncertainty is having a significant impact on big investment decisions. The United Nations said some measures of overseas investments hit record lows in the early months of the year as details of the tariff increases were awaited, while financial data company Mergermarket estimated that the worldwide tally of mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, financings, and joint ventures in the first half of the year fell to a two-decade low.” HPS ANALYSIS: Uncertainty is the word and the condition of business in early July, as we end the first half of a turbulent and transitional year, and plow ahead into the second half. The bicycle business, like the vast majority of American businesses, is in an uncertain place. I am old-school and come from decades of written agreements, including trade agreements, that took years to negotiate and were embodied in lengthy documents that we studied for clarity and guidance, and often asked authoritative sources, like the United States Trade Representative (USTR), Department of Commerce (DOC) or the International Trade Commission (ITC) to clarify for us. This time around, there are no detailed trade agreements, and often the principals disagree about what was agreed and what wasn’t. Uncertainty is going to be with us for some time, and has risen in its importance to seeing the future.
07 09 25: “A pizza oven tells the tariff story so far.” Bloomberg Businessweek Daily: “You probably heard that President Donald Trump has been sending out letters this week to countries, including big-time economies like Japan and South Korea, and relative minnows like Bosnia-Herzegovina and Moldova, warning them that tariffs on their exports to the U.S. will go up on Aug. 1 if they don’t reach a deal with his administration. Together with an executive order Trump signed Monday, the letters put off what would’ve otherwise been a drastic increase in duties today as a 90-day pause he announced on April 9 expired. To be honest, though, I’ve been thinking just as much recently about another notice that landed in my inbox. It set up a clash between my day job writing about the economy and tariffs and my aspirations as a backyard dad and cook. It also says a lot about the U.S. economy and the delayed impact of tariffs. For a few years, I’ve had a hankering for an outdoor pizza oven. It’s gotten a little out of hand. I’ve spent way too long on social media investigating small gas-fired portable ovens and more luxurious ready-made wood ovens. This summer I vowed to finally make the leap. By Labor Day I want to be firing up pies on my patio. Which is where the email that landed on July 2—from Denny Bruce, the chief executive officer of premium pizza-oven maker Gozney—comes in. ‘starting August 1st, 2025, we will be making some necessary price adjustments due to continued global tariff increases that have significantly raised the cost of producing and importing our ovens,’ it began, ominously. The $100 increase Bruce laid out on two models of ovens that now cost $699.99 and $899.99 is pretty steep, at more than 14 percent for the cheaper of the two. Bruce’s email also gelled with something I’ve been hearing from a lot of businesses. They’ve been holding off on increasing prices for as long as they can, but they’re running out of time, and their tariff costs are mounting. Which means consumers are about to feel the pain.” HPS ANALYSIS: Substitute “bicycle” for “pizza oven” and I think you will have the story of why some American consumers have hesitated and put-off purchasing. I say “some” because not all tariffs, or potential tariffs, have been passed along to increase retail prices of products like bicycles, and all bicycle channels of trade are plagued with discounting and deals that tempt consumers to buy now while the low pre-tariff prices last. The marketing message is the same – time is running out, and the pressure of tariff costs is building, so act now and avoid the inevitable price increase.
07 09 25: “The U.S. faces more frequent extreme weather events, but attitudes and actions aren’t keeping up.” Associated Press AP: “After deadly flooding in central Texas in 1987, some thought they’d proven they could handle Mother Nature’s best punch. Then came this month’s horrific flash floods, when unfathomable amounts of rain fell in only hours, and more than 100 people died. Before 2021, the typically temperate Pacific Northwest and western Canada seemed highly unlikely to get a killer heat wave, but they did. Tropical Hawaii once felt an ocean away from drought-fueled wildfires, until it wasn’t. And many in inland North Carolina figured hurricanes were a coastal problem until the remnants of Helene blew in last year. Climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent and intense, according to climate scientists and government data. But people and governments are generally living in the past and haven’t embraced that extreme weather is now the norm, to say nothing about preparing for the nastier future that’s in store, experts in meteorology, disasters, and health told The Associated Press … ‘What happens with climate change is that what used to be extreme becomes average, typical, and what used to never occur in a human lifetime or maybe even in a thousand years becomes the new extreme,’ Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer said. ‘We start to experience things that just basically never happened before.’ The 10-year summer average of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate extreme index, which tracks hurricanes, heavy rain, droughts, and high and low temperatures, is 58 percent higher than it was in the 1980s.” HPS ANALYSIS: I remember my father, who grew up on a farm in Minnesota, telling me that there is nothing you can do about the weather. While this is still very true, the bicycle business and bike shops have several opportunities to help their customers adapt and adjust to the extreme weather conditions that are our reality today. First, there is tapping into weather services to let bike shop customers know what the riding conditions are forecast to be for the coming week, and what preparations can be made to cycle safely and as comfortably as possible. Riding early or late to avoid the hottest and most humid times of the day for example. Next, offering the local cycling community guided rides featuring safe routes and family rides, either as promotional events or as a part of community memberships. Lastly, Indoor cycling has been a merchandising tool and profit center in areas like Houston, Texas for several years now. Bike shops have been able to provide comfortable and dry space for a variety of indoor cycling activities for memberships and hourly fees. And don’t forget indoor riding for climate-challenged areas like Chicago and Minneapolis.
07 10 25: “How smart data management can help retailers survive global trade volatility.” Chain Store Age CSA: “The current global trade environment is marked by extreme uncertainty, heightened by President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause and ongoing trade tensions with major economic partners. Retailers are especially feeling this pressure, facing unprecedented challenges as manufacturing costs continue to rise and consumer spending becomes more cautious and unpredictable. This kind of instability puts pressure on profits, disrupts supply chains, and leaves businesses scrambling to make fast, high-stakes decisions, often without a clear view of what’s ahead. In this environment, smart data management isn’t just helpful, it’s essential. It allows retailers to spot market shifts early, run their operations more efficiently, and make better decisions that help them stay resilient and competitive, even as the global landscape keeps changing. To stay competitive and resilient in a fast-changing landscape, businesses are rethinking how they operate. Rising costs of goods and materials derived from inflation, labor shortages, and energy price hikes are forcing business leaders to adapt their sourcing strategies – especially as they simultaneously navigate shifting tariff classifications. Many companies are moving away from traditional suppliers to tariff-free zones, which requires rebuilding logistics networks and establishing new supplier relationships. However, transitioning to new suppliers and trade routes will take time — global supply chains cannot adapt overnight. Establishing relationships with new vendors, renegotiating contracts, ensuring compliance with quality and certification standards, and reworking logistics networks all require careful planning and coordination. Even if tariffs are paused or reversed, businesses may experience inventory shortages, inconsistent delivery times, or higher costs in the short term, all of which can ripple through operations and impact customer satisfaction. Customer satisfaction is becoming more fragile as consumers grow cautious with their spending. Shoppers are prioritizing convenience, value, and personalization. While discretionary spending is down, expectations around customer service, delivery speed, and engagement are higher than ever. Regardless of external pressures, retailers must consistently deliver high-quality, frictionless experiences both in-store and online. Against this backdrop, reliable supplier data becomes essential to maintaining brand loyalty. One of the most effective ways for retailers to stay agile in such a sensitive environment is by using data more intelligently. By incorporating a strong data strategy, retailers gain the visibility they need to adapt in real time, make faster decisions, and stay ahead of market shifts. HPS ANALYSIS: Bike shops and their supplier community have the opportunity to leverage and utilize the vital marketing and merchandising information provided by daily customer data. There is that word again – “uncertainty.” And in this article, it is “extreme uncertainty.” One of the ways to greatly reduce the uncertainty of being in the retail business is to capture and effectively make use of customer data collected by a Point Of Sale System (POS) and analyzed by a platform that connects to a retailer’s suppliers.
07 14 25: “With social prescribing, hanging out, movement, and arts are a doctor's order.” National Public Radio npr: “For more than 30 years, Frank Frost worked as a long-distance truck driver, ferrying industrial chemicals across the United Kingdom. ‘I worked away from home six days a week, working up to 12-15 hours a day,’ says Frost, now 76. ‘My only exercise was looking for a fast food outlet in the evening when I'd parked up.’ He gained weight and was diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes in his 50s. His doctors put him on insulin injections and told him to lose weight and move more. ‘When l, like most people, failed, they made me feel weak and worthless,’ says Frost. Then, Frost met a doctor with a completely different approach — one that changed his life. ‘He asked me what mattered to me, which I'd never been asked before by a doctor,’ says Frost. ‘I told him that I wanted to live long enough to see my grandkids grow up.’ The doctor also asked Frost about things he enjoyed doing as a kid, and discovered he used to love riding a bike. He gave him a prescription for a 10-week cycling course called Pedal Ready for adults getting back into cycling. ‘I hadn't been on a bike for almost 50 years until I started cycling again,’ says Frost. What Frost's doctor had done was give him a social prescription, says journalist Julia Hotz, who's written about Frost's experience in her new book The Connection Cure: The Prescriptive Power of Movement, Nature, Art, Service, and Belonging. It's the idea of health professionals ‘literally prescribing you a community activity or resource the same way they'd prescribe you pills or therapies,’ she explains. The prescriptions include exercise, art, music, exposure to nature, and volunteering, which are known to have enormous benefits to physical and mental health. And it all starts with ‘flipping the script from what's the matter with you to focusing on what matters to you,; Hotz says. ‘What are your activities that you love? What gets you out of bed in the morning?’ Frost's prescription helped him make friends after years in a solitary profession. And it helped him lose 100 pounds, get his diabetes under control, and go off insulin. He says he still bikes with friends he made through the biking class. They call themselves the ‘Chain Gang,’ and members look after each other.” HPS ANALYSIS: This article is proof positive that bicycling, including riding all forms of e-bikes, is a pathway to a better and more productive and meaningful life for people who have retired. While this story is from the UK, it is an example for every country, including the U.S.. It also represents a market segment that too many bike shops are overlooking. While the typical 70-year-old American isn’t going to walk into their neighborhood bike shop, they can be encouraged to do so by marketing outreach and social media. Bike shops can organize group rides for seniors and promote them at their local community and retirement centers.
07 15 25: “The Dutch intersection is coming to save your life.” Bloomberg: “About once a month, a Californian advocacy group Bike East Bay organizes classes for adults who forgot, or never learned, the basics of cycling. They’re almost always fully booked, says advocacy director Robert Prinz. During the three-hour sessions, most people get the hang of steering, pedaling, and keeping balance. ‘Then the question becomes, ‘OK, now where do I ride?’’ Prinz says. Participants often express anxiety about riding in traffic. Navigating intersections is especially daunting. There’s the risk of ‘right hook’ crashes, where an inattentive driver turns directly into the path of a cyclist riding straight through a junction. Left turns can mean merging into traffic or waiting in the middle of a vast square of naked asphalt for oncoming traffic to clear. Collisions are common. It’s a problem the Bay Area city of Fremont had to confront after it adopted the Vision Zero traffic safety framework in 2015. Up to that point, its cycling infrastructure consisted mostly of painted lanes. Research showed a significant number of Fremont’s fatal and severe injury crashes involved pedestrians and cyclists getting hit at street crossings. ‘We really had a focus on improving intersections,’ says Noe Veloso, Fremont’s assistant city engineer. It brought the city to a design that has been cropping up across North America in recent years: the protected intersection. Also known as ‘Dutch-style’ due to its widespread adoption in the Netherlands, its key feature is football-shaped corner islands that create a forward queuing area for cyclists and pedestrians, positioning them in easy view of waiting drivers and shortening their crossing distance. These also force drivers to make sharper turns, slowing them down and making cyclists and pedestrians more visible. The layout offers clarity for who goes where, which is especially helpful for cyclists wanting to make left turns. They can first cross straight and then wait behind the opposite corner’s island for their left turn, all while staying on a bike path. Together, the elements of protected intersections minimize zones of conflict with cars and decrease the likelihood and severity of collisions.” HPS ANALYSIS: While we are firm believers that the European bicycle market is not the U.S. bicycle market, we recognize that European roadways, for the most part, are engineered and designed to include bicyclists and e-bikers, and accordingly are better than the facilities in the U.S. The Dutch Intersection is just one example of what American road designers need to incorporate from European roadways to make our bicycling facilities safer and help bring bicycling accidents and fatalities down. We believe this will be a huge boost to bicycle riding participation in the U.S.
07 15 25: “Trade fraud!” The Wall Street Journal Logistics Report: “As tariffs surge higher, so, too, do the incentives not to pay them. Clients are inundating trade lawyers with questions about the line between lawful loopholes and fraud, the Journal’s Corinne Ramey writes. The Justice Department is shifting its white-collar priorities to pursue tariff and customs-related cases more aggressively. And lawyers say they have seen a sharp increase in calls from whistleblowers looking to file their own cases about alleged wrongdoing. There are several ways importers typically seek to evade tariffs illegally. Companies can misclassify a product, for instance, by claiming that nightstands are living-room furniture. An importer could lie about a product’s value or what country it is coming from to pay a smaller tariff. Yet companies can use similar methods to avoid tariffs without running afoul of the law, muddying the waters for importers.” HPS ANALYSIS: I have pointed out on several occasions that years ago, Schwinn Purchasing employed two full-time and accredited customs brokers. Trade fraud was one of the reasons. Most importantly, the goal was to do everything possible to ensure that we would be importing bicycles, parts, components, and accessories at the lowest possible and legal import tariff rate. Secondarily, a goal was to make sure U.S. Customs agreed with us when we employed the lowest rate we could find, so we would not be accused of trade fraud. Back in the day, U.S. Customs published this huge set of volumes of Harmonized Tariff Schedules, or HTS Numbers, that had lengthy and sometimes very complex definitions and explanations of application. This was the “bible” that everyone used. Starting this year, U.S. Customs switched from HTS number-specific import classifications to country-specific import classifications. How, or if, HTS number classifications will continue to be used remains to be seen, but it is clear that country of origin tariff rates will be the first thing U.S. Customs will look at in determining if the declared import tariff rate is correct or not. The other issue will be applicable tariff rate stacking. As an example, HPS has confirmed with the USTR that Most Favored Nation, or MFN, tariff rates will still apply to imports of bicycles and e-bikes from Cambodia. Accordingly, the new “reciprocal” rate of 19 percent for bicycles and e-bikes will be added, or “stacked” on the MFN rates of 5.5 percent for road and 11 percent for all other bicycles and zero percent for e-bikes. This will result in a total import tariff of 24.5 percent for road, 30 percent for all other bicycles, and 19 percent for e-bikes.
07 16 25 “Giant Group June bike shipments exhibit worst decline since October 2023.” SGB Media: “Giant Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (Giant Group) saw June 2025 deliver the company’s worst monthly year-over-year bike shipment trend since October 2023 as sales fell 30 percent, the third consecutive double-digit decline. June shipments declined 30.0 percent y/y to NT$4.97 billion, pushing the first half period to a decline of 12.4 percent y/y to NT$32.6 billion. The June decline further builds on a 29.3 percent y/y decline in May 2024 and a 17.1 percent y/y decline in April 2025. The trend line has been negative for most of the first half, except for a big month for the manufacturer in February when shipment sales volume jumped 30 percent y/y, thought to be due primarily to pull-ahead shipments as the market reacted to tariffs that took effect in March as U.S. brands and factories across Asia moved shipments up to ensure pricing. The sharp first-half decline came on top of a similar 12.5 percent decline in the 2024 first half. Second-quarter shipments totaled NT$15.8 billion, a 25.6 percent decline year-over-year. The 2024 Q2 period was relatively stable, declining just 5.6 percent compared to the 2023 Q2 period before turning positive in Q3 2024. First-quarter shipments totaled NT$16.9 billion, a 4.9 percent year-over-year increase, and outpaced a 20.3 percent decline in the 2024 first quarter. Giant Group reports in New Taiwan dollars (NT$). HPS ANALYSIS: Giant Group is, we believe, an example of the rest of the global bicycle industry players. The first half of 2025 shows a decline of 12.4 percent, and while an improvement over the last year, it is still a sign of a difficult global market. The second half of this year is clouded by uncertainty, but an increase over the first half results seems unlikely.
07 18 25: “No one knows how NYC’s 15 mph e-bike speed limit will even work.” electrek: “In his latest crackdown on e-bike riders, New York City Mayor Eric Adams is pushing for a new citywide e-bike speed limit of 15 mph (25 km/h), despite the fact that no one seems to know how it would actually be enforced. The proposal, introduced last month as part of a broader package aimed at improving safety on city streets, would make it illegal to ride an e-bike over 15 mph. But experts, advocates, and even city officials are scratching their heads about how the rule would work in practice. Most consumer e-bikes are already sold with speed limits in place: 20 mph (32 km/h) for throttle assist and 28 mph (45 km/h) for pedal assist, per classifications used in the majority of states in the US. Yet those limits are controlled by the bike’s electronics, not by any city infrastructure. According to reporting by Hell Gate NYC, even the mayor’s own office couldn’t explain what the enforcement mechanism would look like, and no single agency has so far been put in charge of enforcing the speed limit. Will the city mandate software modifications such as those that limit Class 3 e-bikes to 25 mph (40 km/h) in NYC? Would they rely on radar guns like traditional speeding enforcement for cars? Install speed cameras that can identify bikes? So far, there are no answers. Citi Bike has already reduced its electric bicycle fleet’s speed limits to 15 mph, but that only impacts shared e-bikes used in the city. Complicating matters further is the fact that most delivery riders – who are clearly the unspoken target of this policy – don’t use mainstream e-bikes from the major manufacturers, or even those that can accept firmware updates to adjust speed and power. Many of them ride inexpensive, sometimes heavily modified, throttle bikes purchased online or from bike shops like FLY that cater to these types of riders. Such e-bikes often lack more sophisticated software speed-limiting features, and few, if any, have any form of digital connectivity that could allow for remote speed capping. HPS ANALYSIS: It looked good on paper, and the senior citizens who will vote for mayor seemed to like it, but it appears no one thought about, or maybe didn’t care about, how to enforce a 15-mph speed limit on e-bikes in New York City. This is a good example of how unenforceable laws and regulations get on the books. Mayor Adams can forget about New York’s finest slapping speeding tickets on the delivery workers who are probably the targets of this unenforceable ordinance, and while it looks good on paper, it will not do anything to solve the real problem, which is the lack of a mandatory e-bike product regulation. The federal government came close, and it is now up to the American bicycle business to step up and enact and enforce, to the extent possible, a voluntary industry-wide e-bike standard that is inclusive of UL 2849, UL 2271, UL 2272, and the CPSC definitions.
07 18 25: “Numerator: most consumers say tariffs affect spending.” Chain Store Age CSA: “Most consumers see adverse tariff impact. New survey data reveal that tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump are causing widespread concerns among U.S. consumers. A wide majority (81 percent) of U.S. consumers expect to adjust their finances or shopping habits in response to tariffs initially set by President Trump in spring 2025, according to Numerator's Tariff Sentiment Tracker, with the data based on a custom Numerator survey fielded to 5,000 U.S. consumers. This is unchanged from Tariff Sentiment Tracker findings in June 2025. Respondents say they are most likely to cut back spending on non-essentials (45 percent), look for sales or coupons to offset price increases (41 percent), delay non-essential or big-ticket purchases (30 percent), switch to lower-priced retailers or discount stores (29 percent), and buy fewer imported goods (28 percent). Eighty-six percent of respondents are concerned about the impact of tariffs on their personal finances, in line with survey results from June. Six-in-10 (61 percent) respondents are worried about higher prices on everyday goods, 57 percent are worried about general inflation, 47 percent are worried about higher prices on non-essential items, and 43 percent are concerned about limited availability of certain products … A recent consumer survey commissioned by tracking and logistics firm Position Imaging and conducted by The Harris Poll indicates two-thirds of respondents say they will make certain purchases sooner than planned this year, primarily driven by concern over price increases tied to tariffs (51 percent). Younger respondents are significantly more likely to be making purchases sooner than planned this year, with 87 percent of those ages 18–34 and 83 percent of those ages 35–44 saying they have or will expedite purchases. This is compared to just 66 percent of those ages 45–54, 53 percent of those 55–64, and 38 percent of those 65 and up.” HPS ANALYSIS: While there is still a great deal of uncertainty, there is a growing body of evidence that American consumers see an adverse tariff impact. A wide majority (81 percent) of U.S. consumers expect to adjust their finances or shopping habits in response to tariffs. You can read the article for more detail, but the point is the uncertainty is fueled by consumers who are already adjusting purchasing habits or preparing, in some way, for what they see as the impact or “pain” of tariffs.
08 07 25: “NBDA calls on industry to adopt UL e-bike, battery standards.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “The National Bicycle Dealers Association is calling on manufacturers, distributors, and retailers to adopt UL standards for e-bikes, lithium-ion batteries, and other e-mobility devices. The request is in conjunction with the NBDA's formal position statement issued last month that endorses and advocates for voluntary UL 2849, UL 2271, and UL 2272 standards. According to the NBDA, this proactive effort will protect consumers, reduce liability risks for retailers, and preserve the credibility of the cycling and e-mobility sector before regulatory mandates are imposed. ‘In the absence of government mandates, the bicycle industry has an opportunity to demonstrate leadership and commitment to best practices,’ said Heather Mason, NBDA executive director. ‘Our formal position statement makes it clear — we're not waiting for regulation, we're leading with responsibility. By voluntarily adopting UL standards now, we take a united stand for safety, professionalism, and the long-term strength of the bicycle industry.’ In 2022, the NBDA advised its retailer members to ask their suppliers to conform with existing mandatory and voluntary standards. The Consumer Product Safety Commission voted in April to approve an e-bike and lithium-ion battery testing standards proposal, but it was never published for the required public comment period because of upheaval at the agency that resulted in the firing of the three commissioners who voted for it. The proposal would require e-bikes and other e-mobility devices to meet modified UL testing standards, while not also recognizing European standards that some brands use. The NBDA's call to action centers on the three UL certification standards that must be performed by Nationally Recognized Testing Laboratories (NRTLs):
UL 2849 – Electrical systems for e-bikes (complete system safety).
UL 2271 – Batteries for use in Light Electric Vehicle (LEV) applications.
UL 2272 – Electrical systems for personal e-mobility devices (e.g., hoverboards).
By promoting UL-certified products, the NBDA's goal is to help retailers:
Reduce risk and prevent safety incidents like fires.
Improve insurance eligibility and strengthen shop integrity.
Maintain customer trust through transparent safety practices.
Meet OSHA regulatory compliance requirements for commercial operations.
‘Retailers face increasing exposure to safety-related liability,’ Mason said. ‘Our mission is to empower and safeguard specialty bicycle retailers by giving them the tools and knowledge to confidently choose safe products and partners.’ The NBDA is also calling on manufacturers and suppliers to lead with certified products and commit to third-party testing by NRTLs, and for retailers to demand certified inventory, sell certified products, and participate in safe storage and customer education. The NBDA Safety Pledge program is designed to join retailers and suppliers across the bike and micromobility industry to take a leadership role in advancing product safety. The program features separate commitment tracks for retailers and suppliers, each with specific safety standards and best practices.
Retailer Safety Pledge commits participating retailers to:
Sell only road-legal, safety-tested e-bikes from trusted suppliers.
Repair e-bikes only in accordance with manufacturer instructions.
Supply only safety-tested chargers and batteries with full compatibility documentation.
Provide complete safety information and user instructions with all products.
Supplier Safety Pledge commits participating manufacturers to:
Certify all applicable e-bike products to UL 2849 standard.
Certify all battery products to UL 2271 standard.
Certify all electrical system products to UL 2272 standard.
Provide complete safety documentation and user instructions.
Work exclusively with certified component suppliers.
Participating companies receive public recognition on the NBDA website, marketing support through NBDA campaigns, and suppliers earn the official NBDA ‘Safety Pledge; badge for use on websites, packaging, and marketing materials. For more information about the NBDA Safety Initiative and to sign the Safety Pledge, visit the NBDA.” HPS ANALYSIS: In a perfect world, CPSC would have published its draft for promulgating a mandatory federal product safety standard for e-bikes and lithium-ion batteries for e-bikes and scooters based on UL 2849, UL 2271, and UL 2272, et al, with updates to the lithium-ion battery standards. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen, and this has led to the NBDA taking the initiative in publishing a voluntary industry standard. Make no mistake, this is the best thing for specialty bicycle retailers to do at this point in time, and going forward, when the bicycle business has to prove its integrity and trustworthiness to American consumers and win them back to bicycles and bicycling. This is also just the beginning. A completely updated, voluntary product safety standard for bicycles and the mechanical requirements of e-bikes, including Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) is on the horizon.
08 07 25: “Stagflation concerns ripple through Wall Street as tariffs hit.” Bloomberg: “Wall Street strategists are sounding alarms that the U.S. economy is drifting toward stagflation as the impact of trade tariffs starts to show up, potentially restricting the ability of the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates. While investors have so far largely shrugged off the warning signs, data is suggesting an approaching period of sticky inflation and sluggish economic growth, the analysts said. Few signs of those jitters are showing up yet in assets other than the US dollar. The S&P 500 has hit multiple records this year, and an index of U.S. Treasuries is headed for its best performance since 2020. Meanwhile, the greenback is down 8 percent against a basket of peers. Traders, who think inflation is under control, are piling into bets that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, with the first coming as soon as next month. Those bets accelerated after a report on Friday on the U.S. labor market showed hiring had cooled in recent months. But the strategists warn that President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, which took effect Thursday, could upend that outlook as the higher prices get passed on to consumers and companies, threatening to lift prices. ‘The market is clearly expecting cuts, but the upside risks to inflation are significant,’ Torsten Slok, the chief economist at Apollo Management, wrote in a note Thursday. ‘The bottom line is that the stagflation theme in markets is intensifying.’ Treasuries rallied the most since late 2023 after the jobs report, but have since cooled off, trading little changed this week with the 10-year yield at 4.22 percent. Slok’s comments echo similar calls from strategists at Bank of New York Mellon, Bank of America, TD Securities, and Brown Brothers. ‘The still-evolving tariff region will prove stagflationary, both lowering growth and raising inflation,’ BNY macro strategist Geoffrey Yu wrote. This is exactly what appears to be happening now.” HPS ANALYSIS: Stagflation is defined as the simultaneous occurrence of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment. The term is a combination of "stagnation" and "inflation," and it describes an economic scenario where the economy experiences slow growth alongside rising prices. This situation can lead to reduced consumer spending and increased economic distress. Stagflation is described as an economic nightmare, both for those who live through it and the policymakers called on to solve it. This economic condition defies the conventional economics that links inflation with economic booms and falling prices with recessions. First named in the 1960s, stagflation shattered long-held economic theories when it emerged most dramatically during the 1970s oil crisis. It should be noted that the great Bike Boom was between 1971 and 1974. However, there were at least nine domestic bicycle manufacturers in the U.S. during the Bike Boom. Decades later, in April 2025, the U.S. bicycle business is almost totally import dependent, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the Trump administration's new tariffs were "significantly larger than expected" with likely effects that included "higher inflation and slower growth," the classic precursors to stagflation. With companies already planning layoffs, Americans faced the prospect of an economic challenge that generations of policymakers have largely avoided.
08 08 25: “Las Vegas sees drop in tourism, hinting at broader economic woes facing the U.S..” National Public Radio npr: “After years of booming tourism in Las Vegas, the hot streak looks to be cooling off — and it may be a tell for the broader economy. For the sixth consecutive month this year, Las Vegas experienced a decline in the number of visitors year-over-year — with June seeing nearly 400,000 fewer visitors, or an 11.3 percent drop, compared to the same time last year, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA). Summer is typically a slower season for Las Vegas, given its heat, and June was a quieter convention month than last year, according to experts on Las Vegas tourism. But the dip in tourism also comes amid growing concerns over the impact of President Trump's global trade war and immigration policies on international travel to the U.S. Meanwhile, rising prices and tariffs appear to be changing how American consumers are spending their money. In its June report, the LVCVA said the dip in tourism reflected a ‘broader backdrop of persistent economic uncertainty and weaker consumer confidence.’ ‘What happens in Las Vegas matters on a national scale because it often reflects larger trends,’ according to Andrew Woods, the director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. ‘It tends to be a signal for potentially where the economy's headed,’ he said. Both the hotel occupancy rate and convention attendance in Las Vegas fell several percentage points this June compared to the same period last year, according to the LVCVA. The city's Harry Reid International Airport also reported a decrease of roughly 318,000 passengers in June compared to last year, with drops in both domestic and international travel. On the road, traffic on Interstate 15 at the California-Nevada border dipped in June by 4.3 percent, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported. Despite the slowdown, nearly 3.1 million people visited Las Vegas in June, and convention attendance is higher year-to-date compared to the first half of 2024, the LVCVA reported. Gambling revenue from the city's casinos slightly increased compared to June 2024, according to the Nevada Gaming Control Board. Among the biggest blows has been the loss of visitors from Canada, who make up the biggest share of Las Vegas' international market, according to Woods. ‘A lot of the slowdown we've seen in international travel is, from what I understand, primarily driven by the Canadian visitations,’ he said. Another driver for Vegas' slowdown is persistent inflation and economic uncertainty, according to Woods. While these issues have existed for some time, they now appear to be influencing how consumers spend, he added.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS was in Las Vegas during the NBDA Summit West and the CABDA Expo West, March 24-27, 2025. We experienced the city's Harry Reid International Airport and crowds up front and personal, although the NBDA and CABDA held their events in the old part of Las Vegas, north of today’s “strip.” On a personal note, I live six miles from Wisconsin Dells, a year-round vacation and tourist attraction that our Visitors Bureau says hosts 2 billion tourists per year (yes – that is a “b”). While nowhere near as big as Las Vegas, and also not having the international visitors, I can still relate to the number of domestic tourists, and completely agree that tourism can hint at the broader U.S. economy. Accordingly, both Las Vegas and Wisconsin Dells are exhibiting a slowing and a slight, but perceptible, pulling back in consumer spending going into August.
08 09 25: “We get asked about tariffs all the time. Here's what we say.” National Public Radio npr: “The tariff era is here. After some delays and many adjustments, most of President Trump's tariffs kicked in this week, setting a 15 percent rate on most countries, though some others, such as India, could face much higher import taxes. All in all, the U.S. has now imposed the highest tariff level since 1933, according to the latest calculations from the Budget Lab at Yale, with an average tariff rate of 18.6 percent. So what will this all mean for the U.S., and for you? Here are the answers to the five questions we tend to hear most often while covering the economy for NPR. Yes, we'll probably have to pay more for stuff. Higher prices are likely inevitable. That's because most economists believe the costs of the tariffs will be split between the exporter overseas, the companies importing things to the U.S., and you. So far, though, shoppers have not felt the full effects because U.S. companies are absorbing most of the costs. Take General Motors. The automaker said in July that tariffs had already cost the carmaker about $1.1 billion in the previous quarter, but it opted to largely absorb those expenses and take a hit to profits. That can't last. Ultimately, companies will have to convince their suppliers overseas to absorb some of the costs, and they will have to pass on some of that to you in the form of price hikes. We don't know how much more we'll pay. That leads to another question we get often. How much are prices going to rise? And the answer is: We wish we knew. There are projections. For example, the Budget Lab at Yale estimates that prices for clothing and textiles will be among those that see the biggest impact in the short term, with shoe prices potentially rising 39 percent. But clearly, consumers don't think of prices in percentage terms. What people often want to know is how much more their favorite shoe brand will cost. And that gets tricky. As noted, who pays the tariffs will likely be split, so a 15 percent tariff on the European Union, for example, doesn't necessarily mean that you'll pay 15 percent more for Italian olive oil. While exporters or importers may absorb some of the costs, retailers also have wiggle room in deciding how to price the things that make it to their shelves. The Budget Lab at Yale estimates the average cost from tariffs for households will be $2,400 this year, but it's an estimate based only on what's known about tariffs so far. Overall, inflation will rise, but perhaps not too badly. Put everything together, and inevitably, inflation will rise. But it's also important to put things in perspective. Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent in July from a year ago, a bigger annual increase than in the previous three months. And economists expect inflation will increase some more as tariffs take effect. But even then, the inflation rate will still be far below the levels from 2022, when annual inflation hit 9.1 percent, the highest rate in more than four decades. The problem is that inflation tends to cast a shadow on people's moods. Raphael Bostic, the Atlanta Federal Reserve president, this week recalled how former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan used to say he knew when the central bank was successful in battling inflation: People wouldn't even be thinking about it. ‘This is kind of the flip side of that. It's on the front page every day,’ Bostic said. ‘So people are thinking about this, and I worry about what that means for how consumers and businesses will approach their strategies for engaging the market moving forward.’ The labor market could get worse. The effects of tariffs could potentially also hit people where it tends to hurt the most: their job security. Data from the Labor Department last week showed only 73,000 jobs were added to the economy in July — and what's more, job gains that had been tallied for May and June were all but erased. The numbers were jarring, given how strong the labor market had been in the past couple of years. Although the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent in July, that's still a very low level, historically. But now economists expect hiring to slow this year as companies absorb higher tariff costs and as they grow more cautious about their investments. So far this year, the U.S. economy has not seen significant layoffs (with exceptions such as the federal sector), but there are signs that people are finding it harder to get new jobs, including recent graduates. And a weaker job market can have another detrimental effect on people's moods, making them fearful about the future and more willing to cut down on how much they spend. The economy will likely slow — but perhaps without a recession. All of these factors are raising concerns about growth, with most economists expecting a slower economy. But most forecasters do not expect a recession, according to many surveys, including a recent one from The Wall Street Journal. And stock markets have surged, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq recently hitting record highs as investors bet the U.S. economy can withstand Trump's tariffs. Nonetheless, even if the economy avoids a recession, one thing is inevitable: From businesses to households, we'll all feel the tariff effects. HPS ANLAYSIS: The tariff era is here, and the “uncertainty” that led off this month’s issue was omnipresent throughout. A lot of this going forward is because the “tariffs” are not based on or grounded in lengthy or legally based documents with footnotes and references to previous trade agreements, precedent, or international or national law. The question of “stacking” tariff rates is a good example. The agreement with Japan was just clarified to not include “stacking” of tariffs, although this was recently assumed by U.S. Customs until clarified by the USTR. At the same time, stacking of MFN in addition to the new “reciprocal” rates for Taiwan, Cambodia, and Vietnam has been recently confirmed by HPS with the USTR. We'll probably have to pay more for stuff: The articles this month agree that we will end up paying more for stuff. We don't know how much more we'll pay: we just don’t know how much more because the details of the “split” between source countries, suppliers, and retailers of the additional cost of goods, including freight and tariffs, has not been clarified or confirmed yet. Overall, inflation will rise, but perhaps not too badly: Here is where the Stagflation scenario starts to play. Inflation will rise because of tariffs, but we are still not sure by how much. The labor market could get worse: We need to wait for the monthly employment and unemployment data, and the White House isn’t going to be able to hide or change the reality of either rate. Inflation can still be avoided, but if unemployment gets worse, it could trigger Stagflation. The economy will likely slow — but perhaps without a recession: The U.S. and the American bicycle business may be able to avoid a recession, but in doing so, enhance the probability of stagflation, which could be worse. Bottom line – we are still uncertain.
08 12 25: “U.S. and China extend tariff truce deadline for another 3 months.” National Public Radio npr: “President Trump extended a truce between the U.S. and China on tariffs, a move that could potentially set the stage for a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this year. With hours left on the clock before the looming midnight Tuesday deadline, Trump's executive order acknowledged that China was taking ‘significant steps’ toward addressing American concerns on ‘economic and national security matters.’ Beijing announced the truce extension at the same time. Allowing the truce to expire would have sent tariff rates for both countries skyrocketing, dealing a major blow to trade between the world's two largest economies. The U.S. will keep its standard tariff rate on Chinese goods at 30 percent, and China will keep its own rate on American goods at 10 percent. The extension gives the two sides a further 90 days to iron out their differences on a range of issues as Trump seeks to reshape the global economy in favor of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. It also arrives as the U.S. announces several trade agreements with countries including South Korea and Japan on the one hand, while it levies steep tariffs on several nations on the other — for example, Trump has threatened to raise U.S. tariffs to 50 percent on Indian exports to the U.S. later in August, due to that country's continued purchases of Russian oil.” HPS ANALYSIS: This 90-day extension pushes the deadline for a final trade agreement between the U.S. and China out to November 10. For the bicycle business this means a “reciprocal” or standard import tariff rate of 30 percent, plus the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs of 5.5 percent on road and 11 percent on all other, plus the Section 301 punitive tariff of 25 percent, plus the IEEPA tariffs of 20 percent, totaling a U.S. import tariff of 80.5 percent on road, 86 percent on all other and 75 percent on e-bikes imported from China. This extremely high tariff rate on bicycles and e-bikes originating in China has already resulted in Cambodia becoming the largest source country for bicycles and e-bikes to the U.S., and China falling to number two, and based on these high tariff rates, will continue to decline as a source country. By comparison, the U.S. import tariffs from Cambodia are a total of 25.5 percent on road, 30 percent on all other goods, and 19 percent on e-bikes. The total import tariff for bicycles and e-bikes from Cambodia is within a percentage point of the total import tariffs from Taiwan and Vietnam. This 90-day extension with China will add to the uncertainty from now until November 10.
Contact Jay Townley: jay@humanpoweredsolutions.com