TARIFF TURMOIL, CPSC E-BIKE REGULATIONS, AND A FUN SHORTAGE

Jul 17

By Jay Townley

06 17 26: “Switchback: Panel sees market in the eye of the storm of tariff turmoil.” SGB Media: “During a session at Switchback Spring on June 17 in New Orleans, executives from Columbia Sportswear, Wild Rye and Sorini Strategic Advisors warned that, despite February’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling that IEEPA-based tariffs were unlawful, outdoor vendors and retailers should not expect to feel much relief from the ‘chaos’ and ‘confusion’ caused by the tariffs. ‘A year and a half into this craziness, I feel like we’re in the eye of the storm right now,’ said Megan Costello, VP of Trade and Customs Policy at Sorini Strategic Advisors, which works on trade issues on behalf of the Outdoor Industry Association (OIA). Costello said her team is ‘scrambling to halt or mitigate tariff actions expected to replace the temporary 10 percent covering most products that were imposed in February after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant President Trump the authority to impose tariffs, setting the stage for refunds.’ Prior to the ruling, tariff rates had ranged from 10 percent to 50 percent, depending on the product and category. The broad 10 percent to 15 percent global temporary tariffs, invoked under Section 122 of the Trade Expansion Act, are set to expire on July 24, with the Trump Administration signaling its preparation to replace them with a broad new Section 301 tariff that focuses more directly on anti-competitive behavior. Costello said, ‘Tariff rates could return to a universal 10 percent import duty and reciprocal tariffs on dozens of nations that followed the Liberation Day proclamation in April 2025, or they may go higher.’ The tariffs are also expected to be more permanent going forward. Costello noted that the initial tariffs on China during the first Trump administration were imposed under Section 301 and remain in place. ‘We’ll know in the next six weeks or so,’ said Costello. ‘We’ve literally been on calls all day today trying to come up with strategic comments to fight against this. In summary, it’s not over yet. The new normal is this chaos, and it’s not going back, unfortunately.’ Emily Vedaa, director of Global Customs and Trade at Columbia Sportswear, and chair of the Trade Advisory Council (TAC) at the OIA, added that the Trump Administration put out an executive order last week indicating it would be ‘cracking down’ on customs enforcement, promising to create ‘extra hurdles for vendors in achieving trade compliance.’” HPS ANALYSIS: “…in the eye of a storm” is a good way to describe this month’s newsletter. It is summer, and despite the heat, humidity, gas prices, and inflation, there are some good days, and much of the population is desperate to get away from being in the eye of the storm that hangs over the economy and any job or business that is involved in importing just about anything into this country. It isn’t just the bicycle business, and this article is right in opining that we should know about the severity of the uncertainty in the next six weeks or so. Until then, a Nantucket sleigh ride will be a welcome and wet experience.

06 22 26: “Trump’s new U.S. tariff wall shakes up winners, losers lineup.” Bloomberg: “President Donald Trump is rolling out new tools with the same protectionist goals after the Supreme Court ruled his sweeping global tariffs to be illegal. His administration wants the rebuilt wall of import taxes to mirror those Trump put on every major trading partner at the beginning of his second term. But not all is as it was on April 2, 2025 — or Liberation Day, as the president called it. To make tariffs more legally sound, many countries are subject to investigations under accusations of trade unfairness — with the most prominent two focused on forced-labor rules and excess industrial capacity. The actions were brought under a legal authority known as Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Not all countries are targets of the probes, and when Trump’s temporary 10 percent across-the-board tariffs expire at the end of July, some stand to gain a competitive edge with a lower rate than they had before. Others could end up worse off. With Trump, though, it’s wise to assume a wild card in policymaking. On trade, that’s been the administration’s use of exemptions from tariffs for imports it doesn’t want to make more costly to buy from abroad, like AI equipment or farm tractors or Brazilian coffee. On the flip side are inclusions that can add items and broaden the scope of tariff targets. Another unresolved issue is what happens with economies like India, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and the UK that signed trade agreements capping their tariff rates at lower negotiated levels — especially on automobiles. U.S. officials have sought to reassure them that those agreements remain intact. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s trip to India this week may provide a preview of what countries with deals should expect. Piyush Goyal, the nation’s commerce and industry minister, said at a press briefing that ‘the issue currently pending is that our duties need to be lower compared to those of competing nations,’ according to local news agency ANI.” HPS ANALYSIS: There are many enablers involved in the so called “tariff wall” with the most visible being Jamieson Greer, the United States Special Trade Representative, or USTR. At the NBDA Summit Central in Bentonville last month, I made it clear that the American bicycle business will be facing a U.S. tariff wall for the last four months of this year equal to or worse than the tariff wall it faced the first 40 days of 2026. The IEEPA tariffs and the stop-gap Section 122 tariffs will be replaced by August of this year with new Section 301 tariffs that will be “stacked” on MFN and special punitive tariffs. Stay tuned for more specifics and details as they become available over the next 90 days.

06 24 26: “200 industry leaders gather in Bentonville to build the future of specialty bicycle retail.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “Nearly 200 bicycle industry professionals gathered in Bentonville, Arkansas, June 9-11 for the 2026 NBDA Retailer Summit Central, creating one of the largest and most engaged gatherings of specialty bicycle retailers, suppliers, service providers, advocates, and industry leaders in North America. The event brought together an even mix of participants, with approximately 50 percent retailers and 50 percent industry partners - suppliers, service providers, consultants, and advocates. Designed as a catalyst for industry progress, the Summit focused on strengthening relationships, sharing insights, addressing challenges, and identifying opportunities to move the specialty bicycle industry forward together. ‘The goal of the Retailer Summit has always been bigger than a conference,’ said Heather Mason, executive director of the National Bicycle Dealers Association. ‘It's about creating meaningful conversations, building trust, and giving retailers and industry partners the tools, data, and relationships they need to create stronger businesses and a stronger industry.’ Throughout the three-day event, attendees participated in keynote presentations, educational sessions, industry panels, workshops, networking opportunities, and countless hallway conversations that many participants described as equally valuable as the formal programming. Key takeaways and industry insights:The Summit featured discussions on profitability, retail operations, service department performance, inventory management, data intelligence, e-mobility, advocacy, and industry trends. Retailers cited several actionable takeaways, including:

● Strategies for adding services that increase margins and profitability.

● Better understanding of current market conditions and consumer behavior.

● New approaches to community engagement and customer acquisition.

● Data insights showing bicycle imports down approximately 20 percent during the first four months of the year.

● Market intelligence highlighting that e-bikes under $2,000 now represent roughly 50 percent of the used e-bike market.

Attendees also praised the NBDA's willingness to listen to feedback and facilitate open discussion. The NBDA Retailer Summit series continues with the inaugural NBDA Retailer Summit Canada, taking place July 29–30 in Whistler, British Columbia, where retailers, suppliers, and industry leaders will continue the conversations started in Bentonville and work together to strengthen the future of cycling.” HPS ANALYSIS: This NBDA Retail Summit Central in Bentonville, Arkansas, in June followed the NBDA P2 Workshop February 2-3, before the CABDA Midwest Expo, in Schaumburg, Illinois, and the NBDA Summit West, in Las Vegas, Nevada, March 16-17, prior to the CABDA West Expo. As noted, the inaugural NBDA Retailer Summit Canada will take place July 29-30 in Whistler, British Columbia, as the NBDA officially expands and brings the future of specialty bicycle retailing to our northern brethren.

06 26 26: “Section 301’ing the world (or 99.4percent of it).” mondaq Legal 500 Intelligence: “As our readers may recall, we predicted in July 2025 that the Trump Administration would react to the invalidation of IEEPA tariffs by ‘Section 301’ing the world.’ That prediction has now effectively come to pass, with Section 301 tariff actions being deployed at an unprecedented scale. On June 2, 2026, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (‘USTR’) issued a press release announcing affirmative determinations in all 60 of its Section 301 forced labor investigations, concluding that every major U.S. trading partner has failed to adequately prohibit or enforce bans on imports of goods produced with forced labor. The 60 economies collectively account for 99.4 percent of all goods imported into the United States. The USTR has proposed additional tariffs ranging from 10 percent to 12.5 percent on imports. Background: How we got here. A heavy use of Section 301 tariffs has been on the horizon since the Supreme Court’s decision striking down President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (‘IEEPA’) tariffs. In the immediate aftermath of that ruling, the Trump Administration issued temporary tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Those tariffs were imposed with a 150-day deadline that expires on July 24, 2026, unless extended by Congress. In order to partially replace the short-lived Section 122 tariffs, on March 12, 2026, USTR self-initiated Section 301 investigations into 60 of the largest U.S. trading partners. In those investigations, USTR opened a public comment docket that received over 450 written submissions, held two days of public hearings, and conducted confidential government-to-government consultations with 46 of the 60 economies under investigation. What USTR Found: Unsurprisingly, USTR found no applicable defenses across any of the 60 economies. Because Section 301 covers both affirmative conduct and failures to act, USTR also focused on these economies’ inadequate enforcement against forced-labor imports. And while USTR distinguished legally between failing to adopt a prohibition and failing to enforce one, the practical result was the same: each of the 60 economies failed on adoption, enforcement, or both. The proposed remedy: Two tiers and a textile mechanism: As a result of these investigations, USTR proposed two tariff rates, as follows:

10 percent: Economies that (i) have made forced-labor import-prohibition commitments under the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (“ART”) or (ii) have a forced-labor import prohibition in place but do not enforce it effectively.
12.5 percent: All other economies.

USTR also proposed a textile mechanism that would allow a certain volume of apparel and textile imports to enter at a reduced Section 301 rate. The mechanism is calibrated so that countries that purchase American textile inputs receive tariff relief on their finished goods for export.” HPS ANALYSIS: This is a detailed legal article from Mondaq, and while I apologize for the legalese, I do think it is necessary for the bicycle industry to grow up and embrace the reality of what the administration in Washington, D.C. has planned for importers of products and services. I want to make this clear – the American bicycle business is import-dependent and has been for decades. We are just now beginning to realize the scope and breadth of the “tariff wall” we will be facing and the total lack of understanding and reality associated with both near-shoring and re-shoring the bicycle industry. Over the rest of this year, we will learn what kind of future we face, with all of its uncertainties, including the new skill sets we will need to carry on.

06 29 26: “New CPSC rule could dramatically change e-bikes in the U.S.” electrek: “The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) has proposed a sweeping new safety rule that could significantly reshape the e-bike industry, particularly when it comes to lithium-ion batteries and electrical systems. While many reputable e-bike brands already design around existing UL safety standards, the proposal would make those requirements mandatory at the federal level and then go a step further with several new requirements aimed at reducing battery fire risks. The more stringent rule proposal follows claims by the CPSC that current UL safety standards don’t fully address some dangers related to lithium-ion battery packs like those used in e-bikes. But the proposal covers far more than just complete e-bikes. It would also apply to replacement battery packs, battery management systems (BMS), chargers, aftermarket electrical components, and even conversion kits that turn traditional bicycles into e-bikes. In other words, nearly every major electrical component in the e-bike ecosystem could fall under the new rules. The CPSC says the proposal is intended to reduce the risk of thermal-runaway events that can lead to fires, explosions, toxic smoke, and serious injuries. Battery fires have become an increasing concern in recent years, particularly in dense urban environments where poor-quality batteries, mismatched chargers, and home battery repairs have been linked to several high-profile fires. Rather than simply adopting existing voluntary UL standards, the agency is proposing several additional requirements. Those include tamper-resistant battery enclosures to discourage users from accessing battery cells, new testing to ensure battery management systems prevent charging overheated cells, reverse-polarity protections designed to reduce risks from incompatible chargers, and expanded warning labels addressing unsafe charging practices and homemade battery packs. For established manufacturers already producing UL-certified systems, the changes may require only modest engineering updates and additional testing. But the proposal could have a much larger impact on lower-cost imports, aftermarket battery suppliers, and conversion kit manufacturers, many of whom have historically operated with less oversight. The proposal also reaches beyond privately owned e-bikes to include commercial micromobility fleets, meaning rental operators would also be subject to the same federal safety requirements. The rule is still only a proposal, and the CPSC is accepting public comments through August 24 before deciding whether to finalize it.” HPS ANALYSIS: There are several articles about the recently published CPSC proposed micromobility battery system regulation in this month’s issue because this is a really big deal that is long overdue. This electrek article by Mica Toll is of particular interest, in that it lends knowledgeable, non-technical insight into why this new CPSC mandatory regulation will dramatically change e-bikes in the U.S. We will read elsewhere in this month’s issue about certification to CPSC regulations and the details of the proposed micromobility battery system regulation that was actually in its final development waiting for publication and public comment in the early days of the current administration when CPSC was thrown into uncertainty and this regulation was delayed. Well, it is here now and is being supported by electrek, PeopleForBikes, and the NBDA.

06 29 26: “What to know about the looming deadline on North American free trade.” British Broadcasting Corporation bbc: “The U.S., Canada and Mexico are staring down a 1 July deadline to decide the future of a long-standing North American free trade pact. All signs point to them blowing past that date without a clear resolution. On Wednesday, trade representatives from all three countries will meet formally for the first time since a review of the USMCA pact began. Canada and Mexico have both said they want the deal renewed, while the U.S. has yet to outline its position. Most recently, President Donald Trump said he sees the deal ‘expiring immediately,’ arguing that the U.S. would be better off without it. So where does that leave the USMCA, a trade deal that encompasses some 510 million people? And what happens if an agreement is not reached by the deadline? Here's what we know. Expect the 1 July deadline to come and go. One thing is certain: Canada, the U.S., and Mexico all don't expect a decision to be made on Wednesday. A review of the USMCA pact was always scheduled for this summer as part of the original agreement, but Trump's tariffs and Canada's response to them have complicated negotiations. Canadian officials are anticipating that talks with the U.S. will continue past 1 July, and it's unclear for how long. Mexico and the U.S. have announced another round of formal bilateral talks for later in the month. In a statement to the BBC, the office of Canada-U.S. trade minister Dominic LeBlanc said Wednesday's meeting will be ‘an opportunity to build on the positive, constructive bilateral discussions he has had with both countries in recent weeks.’ He is looking forward to continuing the work of supporting Canadian workers, farmers, and businesses on July 1 and beyond. The current deal was negotiated during Trump's first term. It replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement, which had been in place since the 1990s. It underpins nearly $1.6tn (£1.2tn) in annual trade between the three countries, has helped integrate key sectors such as North America's auto industry, and supports millions of jobs across the region. It has also offered Canada and Mexico a much-needed shield from the bulk of U.S. tariffs thanks to a USMCA exemption by the Trump administration on most goods. The pact has broad support in the U.S., with a late 2025 Ipsos survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs suggesting that 75 percent of Americans believe it has been beneficial to the economy. What is stopping a deal from being reached? Since the review began earlier this year, the U.S. has been engaged in talks with Canada and Mexico separately to address a list of trade irritants. What happens if the 1 July milestone is missed? As talks continue, the USMCA will remain in place for another 10 years until its set expiration date of 2036. In the meantime, the U.S., Canada, and Mexico have three options:

All three could agree to renew the pact for another 16 years, extending it to 2042,

If they fail to all agree, an annual review process - similar to the one occurring now - would be in place until the pact expires,

One party can formally declare its intention to withdraw, giving the other parties a six-month notice.

While President Trump has made his displeasure with the USMCA known, business leaders in Canada believe an outright withdrawal is the least likely outcome. ‘Everyone is hopeful that won't be the case,’ Darby said, adding that there is a recognition by U.S. trade negotiators that the pact has benefited all three countries. He acknowledged, however, that rolling annual reviews are not ideal as they would leave Canadian businesses navigating damaging uncertainty. The final decision, he added, likely rests with the U.S. president. Hoekstra echoed that sentiment, telling CTV that the future of North American free trade is in the hands of Trump and Carney. Trump's recent comments on USMCA have been contradictory. He has said he is ‘not looking to renew it.’ He has also said that he is ‘open’ to having the pact in place. Carney has said that it is ‘no secret’ Trump dislikes the USMCA. He noted, however, that U.S. trade negotiators have acknowledged the pact's ‘underlying structure’ was solid.” HPS ANALYSIS: At the onset, I want to make it clear that the USMCA has very little to do directly with the American bicycle business. There is trade between Canada and Mexico involving the importation of goods for the American bicycle business, but for the most part, the USMCA brought with it some stability and certainty. That certainty is, unfortunately, now gone. This lengthy article is to make sure our readers understand the importance of the USMCA to trade relations and the ‘certainty’ between the U.S., Canada and Mexico that is now gone.

06 29 26: “National Bicycle Dealers Association joins the Bicycling Alliance for Sustainability.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News BRAIN: “The National Bicycle Dealers Association (NBDA) is proud to announce that it has joined the Bicycling Alliance for Sustainability (BAS) as an international member, strengthening its commitment to helping specialty bicycle retailers prepare for the future of the global bicycle industry. Founded in Taiwan in 2022, BAS brings together leading bicycle manufacturers, suppliers, and industry organizations with a shared mission of advancing sustainability, reducing carbon emissions, improving environmental stewardship, and building a stronger, more responsible bicycle industry worldwide. The organization has quickly become a leading voice in helping companies measure, understand, and improve their environmental impact while encouraging collaboration throughout the global supply chain. As a BAS member, the NBDA will serve as a bridge between the organization's work and North American specialty bicycle retailers. Through newsletters, educational programming, webinars, conference sessions, and member resources, the NBDA will share BAS initiatives, research, sustainability tools, and emerging best practices to help retailers better understand the evolving expectations of consumers, suppliers, and governments around environmental responsibility. The partnership also creates new opportunities for collaboration between retailers and manufacturers on sustainability initiatives that impact the entire bicycle ecosystem, from product development and supply chain transparency to responsible business operations and consumer education.” HPS ANALYSIS: The National Bicycle Dealers Association (NBDA) has made a substantial step in relations and communication in the international bicycle industry by joining the Bicycling Alliance for Sustainability (BAS) as an international member. In addition to OEM and component manufacturers’ sustainability initiatives, BAS membership will provide the NBDA with vital information to inform and help craft retail policies and procedures for issues like extended producer responsibility (EPR) and product portfolios.

06 30 26: “Brompton Bike sells equity stake to Decathlon and China-based VC.” SGB Media: “British folding bike manufacturer Brompton has sold a stake in the business to France’s Decathlon and Chinese venture capital firm BA Capital as it looks to expand into overseas markets. Decathlon, via its investment arm Decathlon Pulse, has acquired a 10 percent stake in the business, while BA Capital, a Shanghai-based investor best known for backing Labubu maker Pop Mart and Laopu Gold, the luxury jewelry brand based in China, acquired a 5 percent stake. Founder Andrew Ritchie remains the largest shareholder, while Will Butler-Adams, Brompton’s CEO since 2008, also holds a stake. The fresh capital is expected to allow staff and long-term investors to ‘realize cash from the sale of shares and bring in market and technology expertise from the new backers while preserving the brand’s independence, identity and operational model.’ The partnership is also expected to ‘accelerate growth in Germany and China,’ which have emerged as the company’s biggest markets in recent years as the firm pulled back from a more cautious United States. The company is also expected to support expansion in e-bikes, a category Brompton entered in 2017. Butler-Adams said, ‘For over 50 years, Brompton has been dedicated to helping people move around cities in a way that is simpler, more flexible and more enjoyable. As demand for smarter and more sustainable urban transport continues to grow, we see a tremendous opportunity ahead. Decathlon Pulse and BA Capital bring complementary expertise, global networks and a shared belief in our mission. We are excited to welcome them as long-term partners as we continue to grow while staying true to who we are.’ As part of the deal, select Brompton models will be introduced through dedicated ‘Brompton corners’ in select Decathlon stores. Michael Zhang, managing partner of BA Capital, said, ‘Brompton pioneered the folding bicycle category and has become an iconic urban cycling brand. Through decades of innovation, craftsmanship, and design, it has built a globally recognized brand. The rise of experience-driven consumption is reshaping China’s consumer market. As health awareness grows and outdoor lifestyles gain momentum, cycling is expanding beyond sport into everyday occasions such as commuting, travel, and social activities.’” HPS ANALYSIS: In addition to being the largest bicycle manufacturer in the UK, Brompton also represents the largest sustainable transportation brand in the United Kingdom. While HPS does not have all the details, what we do know indicates that this is a very well-thought-out business strategy for future growth in a changing global marketplace.

06 30 26: “CBP launches first of 2 tariff refund expansions.” SUPPLYCHAINDIVE: “The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is expanding refund portal access while the Trump administration challenges a court order requiring universal refunds on now-defunct tariffs. CBP has completed enhancements to its refund processing system for now-defunct tariffs to include entries for shipments that are awaiting reconciliation of their final duty calculations, the agency said in a June 29 notice. Importers and brokers can now submit these entries through the agency’s dedicated refund portal for tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down earlier this year, the agency said. The change covers certain entries marked for later adjustment, as long as they are either unliquidated or have been liquidated within 80 days of the declaration filing date within the portal, known as Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries, or CAPE. The CAPE update is the first of two phases to expand the number of entries that can be submitted in the portal. The latest functionality accounts for roughly $28.7 billion in refunds, the CBP said previously. The second phase, which could come in late July, will include functionality for processing finally liquidated entries, CBP Executive Assistant Commissioner Susan Thomas said during a hearing earlier this month. The entries account for $11.4 billion, or 6.9 percent, of payments made for tariffs installed by President Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act last year. Once both phases are completed, about 95 percent of all entries that faced IEEPA tariffs will be eligible for refunds, Thomas said. Entries covered by drawback, under protest, or filed through improper channels would require additional work. The CBP is working on new capabilities as the Justice Department appeals a Court of International Trade order directing the federal government to issue universal refunds for IEEPA tariffs. The initial order did not cover finally liquidated entries but was later expanded to include them.” HPS ANALYSIS: If you have not already read between the lines, what is going on here is a reluctant administration and federal agencies, who want to be as non-responsive and slow as possible in processing claims for tariff refunds, being prodded by the Court of International Trade to issue refunds collected illegally under the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court.

06 30 26: “Rad Life Mobility officially announces QuietKat purchase.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “Rad Life Mobility announced Monday night that it has acquired QuietKat, an e-bike brand tailored for hunters and anglers. Terms were not disclosed. The deal was brewing at last week's Eurobike in Frankfurt, where officials said talks were ongoing. Founded in Colorado, QuietKat was purchased by Vista Outdoor in 2021. When Vista split into two companies, the brand became part of Revelyst along with Vista's bike-related brands Fox Racing, Bell, and others. Rad Life Mobility, a subsidiary of Life Electric Vehicles Holdings and formed after the acquisition of Rad Power Bikes in March, said in announcing the acquisition that it will focus on product innovation, dealer engagement, customer support, and operational improvements.The acquisition is the third e-bike brand Life Electric Vehicles acquired in the past three years, coming after Rad Power Bikes and Harley-Davidson's Serial 1 brand in 2023. The Rad Power Bikes deal closed for $13.3 million on March 5, coming after Rad Power filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late last year in advance of completing the sale. Last month, Light Electric Vehicles Manufacturing, part of the Life EV Group, purchased a 100,000-square-foot facility in Algood, Tennessee, that will serve as the assembly, distribution, and eventually the manufacturing center for Rad Power. That acquisition is expected to create 288 jobs and invest $7 million in Algood, about 85 miles east of Nashville.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS has no direct knowledge, but is assuming Life EV Group has submitted testimony to the USTR relative to the U.S.-China Board of Trade asking that bicycles be retained on the list of products subject to import tariffs from China and submitted testimony to Congress in support of HR 3904. This brings back memories of the Schwinn manufacturing facility in Greenville, Mississippi.

06 30 26: “What every multinational should know about … the opportunity to shape the next phase of U.S.-China tariffs.” mondaq Legal 500 Intelligence: “The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has opened a public comment process that could reshape the tariff landscape for U.S.-China trade, offering companies a chance to influence which products may receive longer-term tariff reductions through a newly proposed U.S.-China Board of Trade. For nearly eight years, most importers were forced to react to an ever-changing landscape of tariffs on imports from China. For perhaps the first time since the Section 301 tariffs were imposed, companies now have a meaningful chance to influence what that tariff landscape looks like going forward. Following the May 2026 meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) announced a public comment process intended to help shape the next phase of U.S.-China trade negotiations. USTR is accepting comments through July 10 regarding which Chinese-origin products should be prioritized in negotiations. The comments are expected to help identify approximately $30 billion in bilateral trade that may become eligible for lower tariff treatment through a newly established U.S.-China Board of Trade, while also identifying U.S. exports that should receive reciprocal tariff reductions by China.

Unlike previous Section 301 exclusion proceedings, this is not simply another opportunity to seek temporary relief from existing tariffs. Instead, USTR is identifying candidates for longer-term tariff liberalization in the broader bilateral trade framework. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has explained that the comments will help inform negotiations with China regarding where the two countries have the strongest opportunities for mutually beneficial trade. That makes this proceeding relevant not only for companies that currently benefit from existing Section 301 exclusions but also for businesses whose prior exclusion requests were denied, companies that continue to rely on Chinese sourcing because commercially reasonable alternatives remain unavailable, and U.S. exporters seeking improved access to the Chinese market. There is no assurance that USTR will ultimately reduce tariffs on any particular product. The prior Section 301 exclusion process generally focused on whether specific products should receive temporary relief from tariffs that otherwise remained in place. This proceeding instead is intended to help shape a broader bilateral framework governing trade in products that both governments determine are ‘non-sensitive.’ Rather than asking whether a particular importer should receive an exclusion, USTR is identifying categories of products for potential tariff reductions in U.S.-China trade negotiations. To that end, USTR is seeking comments regarding which Chinese-origin products present few, if any, concerns relating to economic security, national security, or supply chain resilience, and therefore may warrant reductions in additional tariffs imposed under authorities such as Section 301 and, potentially, Section 232. At the same time, USTR is also seeking recommendations regarding U.S. exports that should receive reciprocal tariff reductions from China.” HPS ANALYSIS: The NBDA has submitted what HPS believes is very well-crafted testimony to the USTR in accordance with the Federal Register Notice. With this said, most of the American bicycle business and major retailers have taken advantage of this opportunity to submit to the USTR requests and arguments for allowing bicycles, e-bikes and related products to be imported from China into the U.S. at little or no import duty. Some, we think, like Life EV Group, will ask that U.S. import duties remain on bicycles and e-bikes from China and that components required to manufacture bicycles and e-bikes in the U.S. be allowed to be imported from China to the U.S. duty-free. Overall, this will represent the first real opportunity that all sides of the issues involving U.S. imports from China have had an opportunity to present their views and requests to the USTR. We will now have to read the submissions when they are made public by the USTR and wait for his decisions.

07 01 26: “U.S. decides against renewing USMCA, shifting to rolling talks.” Bloomberg: “The U.S. won’t renew its trade deal with Canada and Mexico, choosing instead to conduct annual reviews of the pact in a decision that risks adding uncertainty for companies producing goods across North America. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, will remain in force for another decade provided no one country decides to exit. Opting against a longer-term renewal opens the door to years of contentious negotiations over the rules governing continent-wide supply chains and low tariff levels vital for automakers, farmers, retailers and energy companies. The potential disruptions and the broad economic impact are stark. USMCA boosted economic activity between the three countries, which combined represent nearly a third of the world’s gross domestic product. Intraregional trade surpassed $1.6 trillion in 2024, up from $1 trillion when the agreement went into place in 2020. USMCA has provided a measure of stability in an otherwise turbulent period that included Trump’s tariff clashes with China and other major trading partners. His moves to impose new levies came alongside sweeping exemptions for USMCA-qualified products, easing the blow on Mexico and Canada. U.S. imports entered under USMCA soared as tariffs rose:The decision not to renew the deal and instead shift to rolling negotiations means Trump can leverage an ’implicit threat of roughly doubling tariffs on Mexico and Canada, Bloomberg Economics’ Nicole Gorton-Caratelli and Maeva Cousin wrote. Use of the program jumped last year, when new tariffs created a stronger incentive to file the paperwork, and roughly 90 percent of imports from Canada and Mexico are now recorded as USMCA compliant. Still, other U.S. duties on products such as autos and metals remain a sore spot and will cloud future talks. Trump sought to ramp up pressure ahead of July 1, claiming that the U.S. would be better off without the deal. That path will be difficult given bipartisan support for USMCA in Congress, even if some lawmakers and labor unions want to see it improved. Under the annual reviews, the countries can try to reach an agreement during the next 10 years. If no resolution is reached during that span, the pact expires in 2036.” HPS ANALYSIS: Despite all that was said about the relative stability and certainty of extending the USMCA, and the support of Congress, the president’s opposition seemed to make the decision not to renew almost inevitable. The biggest downside appears to be more uncertainty in an already highly uncertain North American trade arena. As HPS said earlier, the USMCA had very little to do with the cross-border bicycle business between the U.S. and its neighbors to the North and South because it established certainty. That certainty is now going to, sadly, erode.

07 01 26: “Industry now can comment on CPSC proposed e-mobility device, battery testing standards.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “The Consumer Product Safety Commission's e-mobility device and lithium-ion battery testing standards proposal finally is available for review and comment, more than a year after approval by a commission that's since been dismantled, and a new procedure created by executive order that contributed to the delay. The proposal to require e-bikes and other e-mobility devices to meet modified UL testing standards — while not also recognizing European standards that some brands use — will be listed in the Federal Register until Aug. 24. If finalized and depending on the comments received and any drafting of changes, promulgation could be delayed before the final rule is issued. On April 30, 2025, the CPSC voted 3-2 on the testing standards, which are now published unchanged: UL 2849-20 (Standard for Safety for Electrical Systems for E-bikes), UL 2271-23 (Standard for Safety for Batteries for Use in Light Electric Vehicle Applications), and UL 2272-24 (Standard for Safety for Electrical Systems for Personal E-Mobility Devices) are proposed with the following modifications:

Adding to UL 2849-20 and UL 2271-23 tamper-resistant battery enclosure requirements from UL 2272-24 to reduce the risk of injury associated with consumers accessing the battery pack.
Adding to UL 2849-20 and UL 2271-23 post-discharge charge test requirements from UL 2272-24 to reduce the risk of injury by ensuring that the battery management system prohibits charging the battery if the cell surface temperature exceeds the specified upper limit.
Adding to UL 2849-20, UL 2272-24, and UL 2271-23, a reverse polarity test to reduce the risk of injury by preventing damage to the battery pack due to use of an incompatible charger."

HPS ANALYSIS: This is the “official” BRAIN article about the recently resurrected CPSC mandatory regulatory proposal for micromobility batteries and electrical propulsion systems. HPS and the NBDA support this proposed mandatory regulation as published, and quite frankly, we believe that the withdrawal of this very same regulatory proposal early last year, resulted in the loss of some lives. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the bicycle industry and CPSC now have the opportunity to mandate UL 2849, UL 2272, and UL 2271 and greatly improve the consumer safety of lithium-ion batteries for micromobility devices.

07 01 26:“Vosper: So you really want a 'Got Milk'-style biking campaign? Here’s what it’s going to take.”Bicycle Retailer and Industry News BRAIN: “Last month,we explored what various elements in the cycling ecosystem — industry groups, bike brands, dealers and consumer advocacy organizations — are doing to bring more entry-level and returning riders to the activity of riding bikes. The answers were ‘more than you might think’ and ‘not nearly enough,’ respectively. If we really want to bring bicycles back into average American households, it’s going to take more than an uncoordinated series of one-off efforts to make it happen. And it’s not going to be easy. A successful campaign of this type will have to be carefully thought-out, well-funded, and thoroughly orchestrated. Fortunately, a carefully thought-out, well-funded, and thoroughly orchestrated campaign very much like this already exists in the outdoor space. And it’s been going on for more than 20 years. The rise and fall of Take Me Fishing: According to its website, the Recreational Boating & Fishing Foundation is ‘a nonprofit organization whose mission is to increase participation in recreational angling and boating, thereby protecting and restoring the nation’s aquatic natural resources.’ The bare bones [of creating a similar program for bicycles] are simple enough: create a federal excise tax on new bike sales at retail that funds a national marketing campaign to make the health, fun, and fitness benefits of bicycles clear to a new generation of American families. Now, let’s be clear that that proposal is not going to fly under the current administration, any more than Take Me Fishing did. But the 2028 elections are just 30 months away, which gives us two and a half years to get our plan in place. Bicycles are covered by the Department of Transportation, so the excise tax would have to go through them. And new, more bicycle-friendly faces at a future DOT may be more receptive to efforts from PeopleForBikes and other industry organizations like the League of American Bicyclists. I put the notion of a Federal excise tax-funded biking campaign to both PeopleForBikes and the League of American Bicyclists for comment. PeopleForBikes politely declined comment, a nice way of saying they were busy looking for a ten-foot pole not to touch the idea with. No response at press time from the LAB. As I like to say, the U.S. industry is very good at doing what it’s always done. Which is to say, ‘doing what we’ve always done.’ Which is exactly what got us to where we are today. But let’s forge ahead. What will it all cost? Bottom line is, we can organize a Take Me Fishing-style biking campaign, hire a hotshot agency to do the high-level concepting and rollout, and put the whole thing in place in exchange for a three percent excise tax on every bike sold in America. But as I said in the previous section, the big obstacle here is the willingness to undertake the effort from the cycling industry itself. And the heavy lifting in this case will fall on the shoulders of P4B, with assistance from the LAB and related groups. They’re the ones with friends at DOT and in Congress who can make this all work. And they’re the ones who will need to get started now in anticipation of the new administration in January of 2029, in order to have the program in place by 2030 or 2031, just five years from now. It’s a big ask, I know. But it’s also the only way available for us to get more Americans off their couches and onto bicycles. And that’s something worth fighting for. For local bike shops, for bike brands, for the rest of the industry, and for the health, fun, and fitness of America itself.” [READ THE WHOLE ARTICLE HERE] HPS ANALYSIS: My apology to Rick for leaving out so much of his excellent article, and to our readers for including so much of Rick’s article, which makes a great case for executing his, or a similar plan, for successfully promoting bicycling and increasing bicycle riding participation in America from 2030 or 2031 forward. The question Rick asks is important. Do we, collectively, have the will? Back in the day, when we had 10 bicycle manufacturers in the U.S., the Bicycle Manufacturers Association (BMA) collected 10 cents per bike from every manufacturer and spent it on promoting bicycles and bicycle participation. Seem to me that what Rick is proposing is better in many ways.

07 02 26: “Three things to do before you sign your pre-orders.” Bike Europe: “Let's be honest: finalising pre-orders is the most stressful moment of a retailer's year. You commit a large part of your budget to a product you have often never seen, and then hope it arrives before the customer you promised it to loses patience - late deliveries deserve their own article. How can you enter conversations with brands as a strategic partner, rather than someone who simply takes orders? Back in April, I explained that the product is not the problem. Maximising margins with merchandising, where smarter segmentation, not a longer product list, is what protects your margin. Let’s expand our merchandising skillset and look at the tactics you can use to make your pre-orders and business stronger. If you have simply repeated your parts-and-accessories range for three years, this article is for you. Before you finalise your pre-orders, do these three (not simple) things.

Make GMROI your performance metric. Gross Margin Return on Investment (GMROI) tells you far more than a sales report and, likely, a number your sales rep does not have for your business. When a brand rep points to their ‘best seller’ data, your GMROI number will more accurately show how this product performs in your store, which could be a different story. Since GMROI includes your average inventory cost, it shows how quickly a product sells and how much profit you earn for every euro invested. A high figure is good. Too high? You may be missing sales you could have made, which is exactly why the second step matters.
Know your inventory and what it costs you. Inventory is the unglamorous foundation of every business-health metric, GMROI included. It also changes how you see your shop floor. That impressive corner of e-bikes stops looking like revenue and starts looking like a lot of cash tied up in one area of the shop. Is it the right corner? Is there marketing next to it? Has your team been trained to sell it? Review your stock turns and costs by category - ideally by product family - before you commit. And for high-cost, higher-risk products, ask the brand how they will help bring customers into your shop. Their answer should shape your marketing plan and your discount timing. That is segmentation working in practice, not only in theory.
Calculate your open-to-buy. Your open-to-buy (OTB) is a spending limit based on real numbers, and it turns you from a passive buyer into a negotiator. It protects you from emotional over-buying, from pressure on minimum order quantities (MOQs), and from ‘bulk discounts’ that quietly damage your cash flow. Best of all, it changes the conversation from how much you will buy to how you will pay for it: ask me to go beyond my OTB, and I will need a higher margin, or the marketing and staff training that help your products sell. Suddenly the minimum order is for the brand to justify, not for you to quietly absorb.

The shop floor is yours: None of this replaces the relationships our industry was built on. It simply means arriving with a clear and honest picture of your business and of the role each product plays to better inform your decisions. The shop floor is yours. The customer trust took years to earn. It is time for retailers to take back control of both, starting with smarter pre-orders.” HPS ANALYSIS: I personally find this whole article fascinating, and my congratulations to the author. Now, the relative accounting systems between Europe and the U.S. are different, but the fact remains that specialty bicycle retailers need to make all buying decisions based on the financial facts, the financial data, from their business. So, the first point is having a good-to-great accounting system that generates accurate financial information and KPI’s daily. Next is learning to read and understand what the financial data is saying, and also learning to act on what that data is saying, what it is telling the owner. No buying decision, no matter how small or seemingly insignificant, should be made without relying on your store’s financial data.

07 02 26: “The fun shortage is real, and it’s making America miserable.” Bloomberg: “Over the course of the past two decades, the U.S. has lost 2,000 golf courses and 7,000 bars and nightclubs, and Americans now own 1.3 million fewer boats. It’s prohibitively expensive to open a new summer camp and practically impossible to build a beachfront resort or marina. Venue shortages afflict musicians looking for performance spaces, children looking to play in local sports leagues, and adults looking to go out dancing. The best time to book a rental for this summer was last summer, and the best time to book for next summer is, well, it may already be too late. America appears to be suffering from a fun shortage. For the industries supplying recreational amenities, this deficit is a business opportunity. But for everyone not positioned to profit from the trend, it’s a source of stress and frustration that’s been building for a while. It also has broad ramifications for the future of the economy, society, and politics. On the eve of the country’s 250th birthday, it’s worth pondering whether the pursuit of happiness has become more difficult. First, a quick definition: Experts on these matters generally agree that the kinds of fun we should be striving for are enjoyable experiences with others. A live show with friends, a vacation with family, or even small talk with a stranger can all make us feel more connected and content. By those measures, it’s clear that Americans are having less fun than they used to. Since its 2003 inception, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ American Time Use Survey shows double-digit percentage drops in the hours spent each year on arts and entertainment activities, attending sports or recreational events, and attending or hosting social events. In a 2024 U.S. Census Bureau survey, almost 80 percent of respondents said they saw friends or relatives fewer than three times a week. The U.S., along with Australia, Canada and New Zealand, seems to have grown uniquely unhappy over the past 15 years, according to the annual World Happiness Report, which combines data on more than 140 countries. For good reason, we often blame smartphones and social media for making us feel worse. But most of the world uses these digital tools at least as much as Americans do, and the U.S. still came in 23rd on the global happiness ranking in 2026, down from 13th a decade prior. America’s happiness decline must have another major cause, says report co-editor and University of British Columbia professor emeritus of economics John Helliwell. He points to the ‘often forgotten’ factor of fun. ‘It’s not just connections’ with other people, he says. ‘It’s how much you’re enjoying the connections.’” HPS ANALYSIS: This article is much, much longer, with a lot more data. However, the point is the same: The Fun Shortage Is Real, and It’s Making America Miserable. The NBDA can help you think about this and give you some ideas. My top of mind goes to the HOT weather and making bike riding fun again. Let us start with after-hours or night-time rides. Organize and plan rides when it is cool, at night, and make them safe and fun for the whole family. If you live where the snow flies, think about indoor rides and outdoor winter rides. Talk to your staff and family about how to make bicycling fun and make coming to your bike shop fun to visit.

07 06 26:“Vosper: Ridership is (still) up. So why are sales (still) down?” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News BRAIN: “After years of post-COVID chaos, industry suppliers are telling us we can finally start expecting some calm in the summer of 2026. Don't bet on it. 2025 ridership figures are now available from both the National Sporting Goods Association and PeopleForBikes. And they both show historically high levels of participation in cycling. So where are all the new bike sales? The answer is, at least some of them are trickling in in 2026. But the majority of riders, it seems, are still waiting. The ridership devil is right where it always is, in the details. So let's take a closer look. A look at the numbers: By definition, everyone who rides a bike has a bike to ride. And every one of those riders is potentially your customer. Going back to 2010, the NSGA data shows a 44 percent decline in young (aged 7–17) riders the NSGA defines a ‘frequent,’ that is, who rode more than six or more times per year, between 2010 and 2020, the first year of COVID. That's a steep drop. Fortunately, there was a 27 percent rebound during the post-COVID years between 2020 and 2025. Also, fortunately, adult participation rose 16 percent between 2016 and 2020, tapering slightly from 34.8 to 30.1 million riders in 2025. Overall, the 41.3 million total number for 2025 was still higher than 2010; in fact, except for the 2020 COVID spike, 2025 shows higher ridership than at any time since 2000, which is as long as I've been tracking the numbers, which ought to spell good news for industry fortunes going forward into 2026. More people on bikes automatically equals more new bike sales, right? Well, maybe. Let's hold that question for a bit. I should note here that P4B data includes anyone in the United States who rode a bike at any time and for any reason, which is why the numbers are so much higher than the NSGA's. Nothing wrong with that, it's just a different way of looking at the same picture. After all, by definition, everyone who rides a bike has a bike to ride. And every one of those riders is potentially your customer. The P4B numbers show a 7 percent decline in paved riding versus 2020, offset by a surprising 19 percent increase in BMX, a 13 percent increase in group indoor rides, and a more modest 8 percent increase in individual indoor riding. Other metrics stayed essentially flat. Overall, 2025 ridership was up slightly versus the 2020 COVID ‘boom’ year (by 4 percent), with a total of 81,315 riders listed versus 2020's 77,836. Any way you slice it, 2025 was a good year for ridership. In search of the bottom line: The answer lies in PeopleForBike's data, and the fact that its numbers show more of a gain than the NSGA's. New participants coming into the activity during the COVID and post-COVID era tend to be casual and recreational riders (i.e., they ride less than six times per year). Bottom line: it's not just a new era, it's an entirely new market. And that's exactly why, if we expect to survive as an industry, it's now more important than ever to reach out to everyday Americans and educate them about the health, fitness, and just plain fun benefits of riding bikes.” HPS ANALYSIS: The data clearly shows the problem. We are annually increasing the number of 1 to 5-day bicyclists over 6-day or more day bicyclists. Rick’s article above: “So you really want a 'Got Milk'-style biking campaign? Here’s what it’s going to take” provides a plan based on the successful Take Me Fishing campaign. Got a better idea? I would like to hear it, and I will pass it on to Rick.

07 07 26: “How an Italian bike-parts pioneer fell behind at the Tour de France.” Bloomberg: “Component maker Campagnolo once ruled the peloton, but it’s now struggling to survive. The rituals of the Tour de France can seem immutable: Every morning during the three-week race, the leaders’ names echo from public-address speakers, technicians run gloved hands over chains, sprockets and derailleurs, and riders clip into their pedals at the starting line. To spectators pressed against the barriers, the bikes look almost identical — carbon frames, aerodynamic wheels and microcomputers blinking on handlebars. But a less visible detail attests to a dramatic shift in the fortunes of one of cycling’s most hallowed names. Of the 23 teams in this year’s race, only one is using components from Campagnolo Srl, the legendary Italian supplier that once dominated the business. The same was true last year, and in 2024, none did. But as recently as 2021, Campagnolo supplied four tour squads, or almost a fifth of the riders. In the 1970s and ’80s, the Italian brand equipped about 80 percent of the peloton. In a sport obsessed with lineage, Campagnolo wasn’t merely a supplier; it represented a piece of cycling’s creation myth. Founded in the northern Italian city of Vicenza in 1933 by Tullio Campagnolo, the company made its name with a dramatic technological advance: quick-release hubs that let riders swiftly remove and refit wheels in the cold, mud and stress of a race — in a period lacking the swarms of support personnel employed today. From the postwar era of Italian superhero Fausto Coppi to the ’70s reign of Belgium’s Eddy Merckx and into the ’80s, when American rider Greg Lemond was ascendant, Campagnolo went from strength to strength. In 1946, it introduced the Cambio Corsa, a mechanism that allowed changing gears while in motion. (Just a few years earlier, bikes had at most two speeds, and shifting required stopping, removing the rear wheel, and flipping it around to use a second gear sprocket.) In 1951, the company released the Gran Sport, a shifting device that has evolved into the gear systems racers still use today. For amateur cyclists, Campy (as the brand came to be known) was a kind of passport into the sport’s aristocracy, a step above Japan’s Shimano Inc. Campagnolo’s fade from the tour parallels an equally devastating decline in its business. Built in an era of mechanical refinement, racing prestige, and brand loyalty, the company faces a changed market: more electronic, global, and dependent on software, supply chains, and expensive sponsorship deals. Last November, privately-held Campagnolo warned it might cut 120 jobs from a Vicenza workforce of about 300, a retrenchment that stunned loyalists and exposed the extent of the company’s woes. The threat has since become a rescue effort as much as a retreat: Management and unions have agreed to reduce working hours, with state support helping cushion lost wages. Campagnolo has secured temporary financial backing from a state-backed agency, and the government says the company is in talks with a potential partner. For heritage manufacturers, the risk is that the product survives longer than the business model behind it, says Alfredo De Massis, a business professor at Italy’s University of Chieti-Pescara. Campagnolo’s history gives it authenticity and emotional pull, but those qualities can become a constraint if they slow the shift to new technologies. ‘Heritage alone is no longer sufficient,’ he says. ‘The company’s future depends on its ability to transform a celebrated past into a platform for innovation.’” HPS ANALYSIS: I knew Tullio Campagnolo and have visited the factory in Vicenza. While this story saddens me, it also reinforces my belief that you have to consistently talk to and ask the “market,” meaning the users of your products, including shop rats, racers, and regular riders. Ask them what they want and what they need, and what they expect from your brand. I also knew the two Huret brothers, the three Shimano brothers, and the president of SunTour when Campagnolo was the only derailleur on bicycles in the tour, including the Schwinn Paramount. I also knew the president and founders of SRAM at a time when they were not considered for use on the Schwinn brand. That was 40 years ago.

07 07 26: “Amazon and UL win suit over false UL certifications by e-bike and e-scooter makers.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “A suit filed by Amazon and UL against five e-bike and e-scooter companies for allegedly falsely claiming their e-bikes and scooters were UL-certified has ended in a court order barring the companies from doing it anymore. U.S. District Judge Jamal N. Whitehead of the U.S. District Court for Western Washington in Seattle signed a consent judgment and permanent injunction on Monday. It resolves the claims of trademark counterfeiting, trademark infringement, and false designation of origin in favor of Amazon and UL and dismisses other claims with prejudice. The injunction bars the companies from ‘importing, manufacturing, producing, distributing, circulating, offering to sell, promoting, or displaying any product or service using any simulation, reproduction, counterfeit, copy, or colorable imitation of UL’s certification marks or service marks, or which otherwise infringes UL’s intellectual property, in any store or in any medium.’ It also bars the companies from aiding any other person or business doing the same. The settlement calls for each side to pay its own legal fees and costs. The retailer and the testing company filed suit Jan. 23 against three Chinese companies, one Hong Kong-based company and one individual in the counterfeit and trademark infringement case. ‘As a result of their illegal actions, defendants have infringed and misused UL’s IP; breached their contracts with Amazon; willfully deceived and harmed Amazon, UL, and their customers; compromised the integrity of the Amazon Store; and undermined the trust that customers place in Amazon and UL,’ according to the complaint. The complaint listed seven specific models that were offered for sale on Amazon, under the Aipas and A4 brands. The suit also alleged some of the models that improperly bear the UL trademarks have been sold on aipasbike.com.” HPS ANALYSIS: All I can say is, it’s about time! Amazon and UL winning a lawsuit against the brands that have been flat-lying about UL testing and certification will go a long way toward helping get these bad actors out of the American marketplace, making consumers safer and reducing accidents and related injuries. It also comes at a time when CPSC is about to issue a mandatory product safety regulation based on the UL lithium-ion battery standards.

07 08 26: “Retailers frontloading goods ahead of potential tariffs in August.” Chain Store Age CSA: “Import volumes have risen sharply, with strong growth likely continuing into July. Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is forecast to hit a new all-time record in July as retailers stock up ahead of a potential new round of tariffs and other trade uncertainties. Global tariffs that took effect in February are set to expire on July 24. But a new round of higher tariffs regarding forced labor is expected to be imposed by the Trump administration as early as August, according to the Global Port Tracker Report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. ‘Import volumes have risen sharply, with strong growth likely continuing into July,’ Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. ‘Much of this increase reflects frontloading ahead of expected tariff increases.’ The busy back-to-school selling season has already started, and the winter holidays won’t be far behind, noted Jonathan Gold, NRF VP for supply chain and customs policy, ‘so retailers have been working to get products into the U.S. and ready to go before new tariffs can potentially drive prices higher.’ U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.24 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in May, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 14.9 percent from a year earlier, when imports were down sharply because of last year’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, and up 10.1 percent from April. Ports have not yet reported June numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.33 million TEU, up 18.7 percent year over year. That would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.77 million TEU, up two percent from the same period in 2025.” HPS ANALYSIS: Tariffs have a number of very bad effects, including skewing import data, as this article explains. Importers of record do not want to pay import tariffs if they can help it. So, they will front-end load imports to get the product imported before tariffs come into full force and effect. As this issue of our newsletter clearly shows, the whole of the American importing community is anticipating a new tariff wall that will go into effect sometime in August, so to avoid paying as much in tariff fees as possible, the importers of record are getting as much in-country as they can now. The same will hold true for the bicycle business, so import data will be skewed from May data through July into early August of this year.

07 08 26: “Rumors confirmed: Accell Group takeover enters final stage.” Bike Europe: “The rumours intensified during the Accell Dealer Days and at Eurobike last week. The name of Singapore-based investment company DuTech Holdings was frequently mentioned as the potential new owner of Accell Group, once one of the industry's largest companies. Last Friday, DuTech Holdings officially filed a request with the German antitrust authorities for approval to acquire Accell Group. An Accell spokesperson declined to comment on any discussions with DuTech about a potential deal, saying the regulatory filing is a procedural step as the company considers strategic options, including a possible sale. DuTech Holdings Ltd. is controlled by Johnny Liu, who also owns TriStar, a company that makes safes and cash-handling machines. Since the latest financial reorganisation, the announcement of the acquisition of Accell Group seemed only a matter of time. Last February, KKR transferred its shareholding to the benefit of existing super-senior lenders, which are all banks. For these financial institutions, managing a company like Accell Group is not their core business. Accell Group owns a diverse portfolio of global bicycle brands including Haibike, Lapierre, Batavus/Sparta, Koga and Raleigh.” HPS ANALYSIS: Accell Group withdrew from the American market several years ago, but their stable of European brands being acquired by a Chinese holding company will give Du Tech Holdings Ltd. significant European manufacturing as well as established distribution, including a network of bike shops. The questions will now be how well they run the business going forward.

07 10 26: “Giant's June revenues up 16percent, while Merida and Ideal revenues are down.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “Giant Group’s operating revenue in June was nearly 16 percent higher than in the same month last year, according to a statement the company filed with the Taipei stock exchange on Thursday. The company’s revenue in the month was NT$5.8 billion ($179 million), up 15.98 percent from June 2025. It was the second consecutive month of sales growth, following a May filing showing a 5.8 percent increase. Fellow Taiwanese bike makers Ideal Bike and Merida Industry had also reported sales increases in May, but both those companies saw declines in June. Giant's year-to-date revenues are down 10.5 percent. The monthly operating revenue statements do not show profitability figures. Merida reported June operating revenue of NT$2.4 billion, down 5.5 percent year-over-year. Merida’s year-to-date revenues are down 15.3 percent. Ideal Bike reported June operating revenue of NT$230 million, down 3.3 percent. Ideal’s year-to-date revenues are down 19.8 percent.” HPS ANALYSIS: Giant Group is the financially strongest of the Taiwanese OEMs, so it is no surprise that they are the first to show a monthly revenue increase in 2026. However, there are still six months of sales and financial data to go, although all three of the top Taiwanese OEM’s appear to be stabilizing and improving cash flow and sales.

07 11 26: “Another state adds a way to report reckless e-bike and e-scooter riders.” electrek: “As communities across the U.S. continue grappling with the rapid rise of electric bikes and scooters, one Oregon sheriff’s office is introducing a new tool designed to help identify trouble spots before someone gets hurt. According to a report from KPTV Fox 12, the Washington County Sheriff’s Office has updated its online traffic complaint form with a new category specifically for reporting unsafe e-bike and e-scooter activity. The move comes after deputies saw a noticeable increase in dangerous riding behavior, particularly among younger riders during the summer months. Captain David Huey explained that complaints have included riders traveling in the middle of traffic, speeding, performing wheelies in roadways, and even throwing objects at passing vehicles. Rather than simply creating another place for neighbors to vent, the sheriff’s office says the reporting tool is intended to help identify patterns. Residents can submit the location, time, and description of incidents, along with photos if available, allowing deputies to determine where education campaigns or targeted enforcement may be most effective. Officials say discussions about the new reporting option began months ago as concerns over reckless riding continued to grow. It’s a move we’ve seen before in similar moves, such as a program in Colorado encouraging locals to report bad riding behavior to the authorities. Neighborhood leaders have welcomed the additional reporting option, though some remain skeptical about how much enforcement will ultimately be possible. In one local community, residents have reported damage to landscaping and irrigation systems caused by riders cutting through common areas. The challenge, according to the sheriff’s office, is that many complaints involve behavior that’s difficult to enforce after the fact unless deputies witness it firsthand. By collecting reports over time, the department hopes to build a clearer picture of where problems are concentrated. The agency also emphasized that the online form is intended for non-emergency complaints. Dangerous situations requiring immediate police response should still be reported by calling 911. The approach reflects a growing trend among cities and counties trying to balance the enormous transportation benefits of e-bikes with the reality that a small percentage of irresponsible riders can create outsized safety concerns. As e-bike adoption continues to accelerate, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more jurisdictions introduce similar reporting tools to address dangerous behavior without penalizing the vast majority of riders who use their bikes responsibly.” HPS ANALYSIS: As our friend Clint Sandusky has reported, enforcement of many, if not all, of the new state requirements and laws aimed at irresponsible e-moto and out-of-class e-bike users is a problem law enforcement has a continuing and growing problem with. We agree that enforcement is too often totally overlooked when state legislators take action to do something about the accidents, injuries, and fatalities resulting from bad behavior and dangerous operation. The enforcement methodology described may be the best under the circumstances – but HPS believes the best approach is to outlaw electric motorcycles or regulate them as motorcycles, including any like configuration, with or without pedals, that can be driven at over 20 m.p.h. by the electric motor only.

07 12 27: “What a Monopoly importer learned when it tried to make things in the U.S.A.” National Public Radio npr: “In an effort to sidestep President Trump's tariffs, the WS Game Company decided to build a special edition Monopoly game in the United States. But the experiment almost didn't pass go. The board game Monopoly has always taught some important economic lessons: The benefits of owning real estate. The profit potential of railroad mergers. The value of a get-out-of-jail-free card. Now, a special edition of the board game is teaching a new lesson about how hard it is to make things in the USA. The game is being marketed by the WS Game Company, which produces most of its high-end board games in China, just like almost every other toy maker. After getting hit with a seven-figure tariff bill last year, CEO Jonathan Silva decided to see if it was possible to produce a profitable board game in the United States. He opted for a custom version of Monopoly, pegged to the country's 250th birthday. But the experiment almost didn't pass go. One big problem: No dice. ‘We turned over every single leaf trying to find someone who would make 10,000 dice for us in the U.S.,’ Silva says. ‘It requires special machinery. It requires investment. And that type of stuff just can't happen on a random Tuesday and be ready in a couple of months.’ Silva ultimately had to settle for imported dice. He was able to find the rest of what he needed domestically, but it wasn't easy. A former Hasbro factory in Massachusetts prints the Monopoly board. A company called Pioneer Packaging makes the tray that holds the Monopoly money. And a small business in Indiana cranked out custom metal game tokens, in all-American shapes like a cowboy hat, a covered wagon, and an apple pie. Just assembling all those different players took more than a year, so Silva missed the first half of the 250th birthday selling season. And the cost to manufacture the games — which retail for $80 — was at least double what it would have been in China.’ When I place a purchase order in China, they have all those capabilities under one roof,’ Silva says. ‘For one item, it took up way too much of our resources and time to bring it to market.’ Why so many things are made in China: There's a reason nearly 80 percent of all toys and games sold in the U.S. are made in China. That country has spent decades building a factory ecosystem to supply not only finished products, but all the specialized parts that go into them. ‘That's why the re-shoring and the looking at bringing it back into the U.S. or even looking at other countries and moving it is not as easy as it sounds,’ says Greg Ahearn, president and CEO of The Toy Association, an industry trade group.” HPS ANALYSIS: From HPS’s experience, the bicycle and e-bike ecosystem in China has been developed over 50 years to produce not only the finished products, but, as the article states, all the components that are required to produce the complete product. Manufacturing methodology has kept current with automation, including robotics and AI. Scale is also a factor that is built into the production facilities. This is both an advantage and a disadvantage in that it leaves the Chinese OEMs open to U.S. accusations of “structural excess capacity” under Section 301.

07 13 26: “CPSC introduces program for importers requiring certificates of compliance.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “The Consumer Product Safety Commission said last week that importers of regulated consumer products like e-bikes and other e-mobility devices must submit compliance certificates electronically before their products enter the U.S. The eFiling program helps the CPSC identify and target what it considers ‘high-risk imported products’ more efficiently while reducing inspections and delays for compliant importers. ‘By allowing the agency to focus enforcement resources where they are most needed, eFiling helps keep unsafe products out of the U.S. marketplace while facilitating legitimate trade,’ the CPSC said in making the announcement. CPSC said the program also fosters closer coordination between CPSC and Customs and Border Protection. The program does not apply to domestic manufacturers in the U.S., nor does it create new testing, certification, or compliance obligations. Importers are already required to create and maintain compliance certificates. The eFiling program modernizes how the data is circulated to the CPSC. ‘We have known about this deadline for some time," said Steve Hansen, an attorney who represents product manufacturers, distributors and retailers in product liability and other lawsuits. ‘The real question is how they are going to implement this. I was told they backed off of the position that 16 CFR 1512 sets up a standard for all the 'components' mentioned in that standard. It's a complete bike standard, not a component standard. Let's see what they do. I was told they backed off from their initial overreach on that, but I never got written clarity from CPSC on it.’ The 16 CFR 1512 is the mandatory U.S. safety standard for bicycles and e-bikes under 750 watts. Hansen noted the 16 CFR 1512 standard has nothing to do with lithium-ion batteries, only mechanical standards. Requirements applicable to consumer products imported into Foreign Trade Zones and later entered for consumption or warehousing will take effect on Jan. 8, 2027.” HPS ANALYSIS: Steve Hansen is correct. This eFiling program and requirement have been known by CPSC watchers for months now. It has been available as a pilot program and to any manufacturer or importer of record that wanted to both get signed up and gain operational experience with the eFiling program and its operation. While the mandatory regulations under 16 CFR 1512 are, for the most part, old and need updating, they are still mandatory federal requirements and must be met in testing and certified. Electronic filing of certification is now required, and HPS advises that CPSC will be enforcing the new eFiling requirements and taking action relative to enforcement.

07 15 26: “Report: Americans are investing more in their health and fitness than ever before.” SGB Media: “Americans are investing more in their health and engaging more with fitness, nutrition and sports than ever before. To better understand how consumer behavior is evolving, Harrison Co. has completed and published a proprietary survey of active Americans. The survey examines the key behaviors and trends shaping the fitness and health industries — spanning fitness habits, wearables and fitness technology, nutrition and supplements, and sports participation and fan engagement. The findings are presented in “How America Moves: A Portrait of Fitness, Nutrition and Sports Culture in America,” the inaugural edition of an annual report from Harrison Co.

Key findings in the report include:

Increasing engagement in fitness, with 86 percent of active Americans exercising at least weekly and 62 percent reporting they have increased their activity over the past six months.

Strength training reaches parity with cardio as the most common type of training (66 percent vs. 65 percent).

The home gym has become a permanent fixture, with 76 percent of active Americans owning home exercise equipment and 68 percent planning to buy more within the next 12 months.

The emergence of women as a rapidly growing and distinct fitness and wellness consumer segment, with preferences across categories from supplement goals to wearable choices and gym selection.

A growing consumer preference for quality, efficacy, and trusted brands over price, with ingredient quality the top supplement decision driver and price the least important among the 81 percent who use supplements at least occasionally.

Wearables are now standard equipment, moving well beyond early adopters, with 75 percent of active Americans using a wearable while exercising, rising to 90 percent among households earning $150K or more.”

HPS ANALYSIS: This research and its findings are of particular interest because of the downturn in sales and revenue reported by the American bicycle business. The reported 75 percent of active Americans using a wearable while exercising, and the higher percentage among households with earnings of $150K or more, may open a new product cross-over category for specialty bicycle retailers and suppliers.

Contact Jay Townley: jay@humanpoweredsolutions.com

Fred Clements

TARIFF TURMOIL, CPSC E-BIKE REGULATIONS, AND A FUN SHORTAGE

ARE CLASS 3 E-BIKES A SUBSTANTIAL PRODUCT HAZARD?