IS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RECOVERING? WILL LEGISLATION IMPROVE E-BIKE SAFETY?

By Jay Townley

03 20 26: “Purchase manager outlook indicates slight growth in market confidence.” Bike Europe: “‘In the current market, inventory levels are the leading indicator of the financial position of the industry,’ said Trek Bicycles CEO John Burke this week at the U.S. industry gathering, Bicycle Leadership Conference. Although the March Global Bicycle Purchasing Index (GBPI) data points to sustained improvements in new incoming order levels and the purchasing levels of bicycles, the assessment of the current industry situation remains poor or average at best. Business sentiment has failed to recover from the drop following Eurobike 2025. In March 2026, the GBPI index still stood at 99.5, up from 98.8 last November. A reading above 100 indicates sectoral expansion, while a number below 100 indicates contraction, offering a clear snapshot of business trends. The change was mainly driven by the distributors. Across the survey’s three main categories, the distributor’s index increased from 96.5 last November to 97.8 this month. The indices for assemblers and parts manufacturers remained nearly unchanged. Incoming orders level up: Looking at the two principal sectors covered by GBPI data, there were some encouraging signs of improving confidence in services in March. The short-term expectation for this quarter is much more positive, as the index shows. Among survey participants, 34 percent reported that the industry's short-term outlook is better or much better, up from 21 percent last November. Only 22 percent reviewed this situation as worse or much worse, down from 29 percent earlier. The assessment of one’s own company is much less positive, with only slight adjustments compared with last November. Slight decline in inventory levels: While strongly negative assessments are declining, positive assessments remain rare, even when companies look at their own operations. The industry reports a slight reduction in inventory levels, a slight uptick in demand, and, in some cases, slightly longer-term orders are also more prevalent. Nevertheless, reports of little change or improvement in the industry situation are widespread. Industry signals tend to be rather ambiguous and unclear. Not predictions anymore: John Burke took a deep breath before answering the question when he was asked to give his outlook on the 2026 market. Also, Giant Bicycles CEO Phoebe Liu did not give a straightforward answer to the question. This marks a period of great uncertainty in the market, driven by many economic factors and marked by reduced consumer spending power and rising inflation. Both were on stage this week at the Bicycle Leadership Conference, held in the U.S. from 17 to 19 March. U.S. tariffs are accepted as a given thing: The announcement of the U.S. reciprocal tariffs in April 2025 triggered a shockwave across the industry. One year later, companies seem to have adapted to the new situation, and the main shift comes either in the categories of hardly any to no impact, versus a very big impact. The company’s resilience seems to worry the industry, as the index for not so well declined from 18 percent earlier to 9 percent in the latest edition, while the index for very bad is now.” HPS ANALYSIS: This is an incredibly important article, and we urge all of our readers to reach out to Bike Europe and obtain a copy of the March Global Bicycle Purchasing Index (GBPI). The lack of simple and uniform communication between the major bicycle associations of the world is becoming very apparent, and a major impediment to defining the global situation and fitness of both the markets and the supply side of the business. We are getting bits and pieces, and some of the global players probably have a clear picture, but they are not sharing for individual company reasons. We have the World Bicycle Industry Alliance (WBIA) and the Bicycling Alliance for Sustainability (BAS) pointing out that the bicycle industry has no credibility because we lack country and regional data about bicycling as transportation, and the United Nations is launching a global initiative that includes environmental and labor initiatives. The U.S. bicycle industry trade associations are struggling with “alignment” on conflicting and debilitating issues of municipal and state regulation, all in the face of a global decline in interest, participation, and sales. Sticking our collective heads in the sand and wishing things will get better will not cut it, and we as a global industry have no choice, if we want to survive, but to ignore national politics, and reach out and join and support global organizations like the WBIA and BAS.  

03 23 26: “Report: uncertainty causing stagnant small business growth.” SGB Media: “The National Small Business Association’s (NSBA) Small Business Economic Report for March 2026 finds that the small business community is facing increased costs, economic conducting surveys of small business owners for 20 years, takes a comprehensive look at nationwide growth, hiring, financing, policy, and other key indicators. ‘More businesses today are not seeking external financing than at any point since we’ve been doing the survey,’ said Todd McCracken, NSBA president and CEO. ‘This underscores slower anticipated growth rates and a generally stagnant small business economy.’‘ Economic uncertainty remains the top concern for America’s small business owners, with U.S. political instability a close second,’ said Bill Belknap, NSBA chair and president and CEO of AEONRG LLC in Downingtown, Pa. ‘These are issues our political leaders could easily impact for the good – if they wanted to.’ Yet, despite several negative indicators, small-business owners remain optimistic: 67 percent are confident in their business’s future.” HPS ANALYSIS: Let’s face it. The bicycle business, while it has some big global players, has been and is a construct of small businesses. This is both by the definition that countries like the U.S. officially recognize as a “small business” and the reality of the component companies that support the OEMs and the independent bike shops that support wholesalers and brands. Economic uncertainty is the number one concern of small businesses, and it’s in the best interest of everyone else, large, small, for-profit, and not-for-profit, to ameliorate the uncertainty as much as possible. This means telling the truth and passing on factual information, good or bad, that will reduce uncertainty, to the extent possible.

03 25 26: “They gave her business a lifeline, then froze all her money.” National Public Radio npr: “The alarming phone call came from Jane's daughter, away at college. Her debit card had suddenly stopped working. Something was wrong with their shared bank account. What happened to all the money? Jane's heart sank as she dialed her bank. The funds were still there, the bank said, but frozen — every penny, in every account. The directive came from a finance firm that had loaned to her small business. There had been no court order, no trial or hearing. ‘It devastated my family and my business, with no warning, zero warning,’ Jane says. ‘They shut down my entire life — not just my business accounts, my entire life.’ Jane runs a small firm in the medical industry in Indiana. She asked that NPR identify her by her middle name to speak candidly about her debts, which she has not disclosed to her customers, employees, or industry peers. Some of her financial settlement negotiations are still ongoing. Jane found herself in a murky and largely unregulated corner of the financial world, which is also the fastest-growing source of funding for U.S. small businesses. One state, Connecticut, had given these lenders unusual power to go after business owners who fall behind on their debts. This spring, lawmakers plan to vote on a change. Daily payments for emergency help: Three months earlier, in October, Jane had borrowed $50,000 through what's called a merchant cash advance, or MCA. Like most entrepreneurs who choose this option, she'd hoped for an emergency lifeline. After two decades and several successful businesses in her field, Jane had started a new firm right as inflation soared, and 2024 election jitters sent her customers tightening their budgets. Sales were OK, but not enough to turn a profit. She needed a cash infusion, but traditional banks turned her away because her company was too nascent and, so, too high-risk. ‘You start to go through a little bit of a panic when payroll is coming due, rent's coming due,’ Jane says. She googled around and clicked on some forms. ‘All of a sudden, my phone just started blowing up with, 'We can give you $100,000 — just send me your last few months of bank statements.' The barrage came from MCA lenders, which often fill this very gap. The industry is vast and chaotic. A funder might be affiliated with a giant like Amazon or a loan shark. Many are backed by Wall Street or Silicon Valley money. Their cash comes fast — within hours — and with little paperwork. But it's costly. ‘I totally let fear get in my way, and these people catered to it,’ Jane says. The lump sum that she received was just under $47,000, after various fees. But she had to agree to pay back, eventually, $72,500. And a key feature of an MCA is how it gets repaid: Her lender received a cut of her sales. And it dipped directly into her bank account every day to take out $558. Legally, there's no limit to fees on an MCA. That's because a merchant cash advance is technically not a loan but a purchase of the borrower's future sales. So most lending laws don't apply. In most states, MCA lenders don't have to be licensed. ‘They set these small daily payments, and they seem fine — until you get into them and you start paying them,’ Jane says. ‘And that's when I quickly saw I made a big mistake.’" HPS ANALYSIS: A merchant cash advance, or MCA is the kiss of death for any business. Human Powered Solutions (HPS) is a small business that has not applied for a business loan, yet my business partner and I receive almost daily phone calls from loan officers for MCA’s informing us that we have been approved for over $100,000 in an immediate loan. These private lenders are feeding on fear and a lack of factual information about their abusive tactics that make loan sharks and the mob look mild by comparison. If you are tempted by a call from an MCA, hang up and contact your local bank, the local office of the Small Business Administration, or the NBDA for information and financial counsel.

03 29 26: “Electric bikes can be fast and dangerous. Here’s how to stay safe.”Associated Press AP: “The 14-year-old was riding an electric bicycle at an estimated 25 m.p.h. when he slammed into Janet Stotko during her evening walk, leaving her unconscious and bleeding on a sidewalk in her Minnesota neighborhood. The 2024 crash nearly killed Stotko, who was raced to a hospital with severe brain injuries, a facial fracture, and a broken eardrum. But after being on a ventilator for two days, spending three weeks in the hospital, and enduring brain surgery, she survived, surprising even her doctors. At a checkup, she said, her doctors told her, ‘Wow, we can’t believe you’re here.’ Now, she’s pushing for stricter laws regulating e-bikes in hopes that others won’t be hurt. E-bikes offer a convenient, eco-friendly, and cost-effective alternative to cars, but their increasing use is drawing safety concerns. A study by the University of California, San Francisco, found that rider injuries from e-bikes nearly doubled each year from 2017 to 2022, and a University of California, San Diego, study showed injuries in San Diego among e-bike riders under 18 soared 300 percent from 2019 to 2023. Under federal law, most e-bikes are considered nonmotorized vehicles just like traditional bicycles, so riders don’t need a driver’s license or insurance, and they don’t have to wear a helmet. But many states have more stringent rules, and regulations vary widely. Health experts have called for new laws and better enforcement of existing regulations, and officials in many places are taking action. Here’s what e-bikers should know to keep themselves and people around them safe. This article is part of AP’s Be Well coverage, focusing on wellness, fitness, diet, and mental health.  Not all e-bikes are the same: Many states have adopted a three-tier classification of e-bikes: Class 1 has motors that kick in while riders pedal with maximum speeds of 20 m.p.h.; Class 2 has throttles that reach 20 m.p.h. maximum without pedaling; and Class 3 provides pedal-assist up to 28 m.p.h.There are faster versions available, sometimes called e-motos, that can reach 40 m.p.h. even without pedaling. Many states treat these bikes like motorcycles, so they’re not allowed on sidewalks or paths, but in some states, there are no specific rules for the ultra-fast bikes. As John Maa, a general surgeon at Marin Health Medical Center in Northern California, notes, it’s basic math that increased speeds lead to increased injuries. ‘It’s Newton’s principles, right? Force equals mass times acceleration, and also kinetic energy is mass times velocity squared,’ Maa said. Learn where you can and can’t ride: Speed limits, helmet requirements, and other rules for e-bikes are changing rapidly, and what’s legal in one city or state might be illegal in the next.” HPS ANALYSIS: This AP article is one of the most objective HPS has read to date on this highly emotional issue. The problem, as everyone in the bicycle business has agreed, is e-motos. However, it isn’t that simple. Young riders, often enabled by their parents, purchase e-motos being sold as “electric bicycles” capable of speeds in excess of 28 and over 40 m.p.h. While most of such sales are through direct-to-consumer (DTC) retailers, some are through brick-and-mortar retailers, and the result has been an increase in both rider and pedestrian injuries and fatalities. This has led to a public outcry that municipal and state governments have reacted to with a jumble of decent to absolutely terrible ordinances, laws, and regulations that are not enforceable and are suppressing sales of “legal” e-bikes. The bicycle industry is struggling to “align” itself behind a response and message that will both stop the jumble of ineffective ordinances, laws, and regulations and get the industry out in front of this problem. It has not yet achieved the “alignment” that is required of our industry leaders.

03 30 26: “Federal legislation addresses e-moto issue.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “A bipartisan group in Congress has introduced the Safe SPEEDS Act, which would create federal standards for low-speed electric bikes and e-motos. PeopleForBikes says the bill is ‘a significant step forward in addressing the increased use of currently unregulated products like electric dirt bikes across the U.S.’ Jenn Dice, president and CEO of PeopleForBikes, said the bill would direct the Consumer Product Safety Commission to gather and analyze data about incidents involving the many e-mobility products under its jurisdiction, and adopt clear classification and labeling requirements for these devices, including consideration of the three recognized classes of low-speed electric bicycles. ‘This legislation marks important progress towards understanding and mitigating the hazards posed by e-motos, the higher-speed electric motorized vehicles that are sold as off-road electric dirt bikes, but often end up being inappropriately used on public roads by young riders,’ Dice said. PeopleForBikes is supporting the legislation, as are other industry and advocacy groups, including the League of American Bicyclists, the National Bicycle Dealers Association, Safe Routes Partnership, Consumer Reports, Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety, the International Association of Chiefs of Police, and the Rails-to-Trails Conservancy. The bill was introduced by Reps Dave Min (D-CA), Jared Huffman (D-CA), Mike Lawler (R-NY), and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA).” HPS ANALYSIS: Here is one possible solution to the problem described in the previous article. This bipartisan bill that has been introduced in the House of Representatives is supported by the leaders of the American bicycle business – but still needs the broad support of the small businesses, including bike shops, that make up the American bicycle business, and represent the supporters and voters in congressional districts across the country. There are sponsors from both sides, from California, New York, and Pennsylvania, for starters.

03 30 26: “Tariffs put businesses in crisis. Waiting for the refund could be worse.” WALL Street Journal WSJ: “Endless Pens is running out of pens. Owner Keval Kantaria is running out of options. Bankruptcy is a real possibility, he said, if a refund doesn’t come by July for the $175,000 in extra tariffs he paid on imported stock for his Tampa-based luxury online retailer over the past year. ‘I’ve come to a cash flow crisis,’ he said. ‘I don’t have enough cash to buy any new inventory.’ The $166 billion the Trump administration collected from tariffs voided by the Supreme Court amounts to the largest illegal government levy in the nation’s history. Now, almost exactly a year after President Trump declared ‘Liberation Day,’ companies of every size are wrestling with uncertainty about when, how—and even if—they will get refunds, a process made more complicated because the federal government isn’t eager to return the ill-gotten gains. Even in the best-case scenario, a refund program of such scale is going to be messy and slow. Some business owners can’t hold on that long. Others are mounting a fight. More than 3,000 lawsuits have been filed against the government in the Court of International Trade by companies hoping to maximize their chance of getting a refund quickly. The cases started piling up after the Supreme Court heard arguments in November and signaled skepticism of Trump’s position. The wave was boosted by Costco, one of the country’s largest retailers, which filed a lawsuit that propelled some other nervous importers to join it even before the high court ruled. In recent weeks, additional lawsuits have come in from CVS Pharmacy, Nintendo, Pandora Jewelry, Hasbro, Skechers USA, and Nissan North America. Still, the vast majority of companies suing are tiny ones that need the money far more urgently. Like the challenge to the tariffs themselves, the refunds fight has been led by relatively obscure brands.” HPS ANALYSIS: The tariff situation is a mess. It also is not going away. Refunds of some of the $166 billion collected illegally will be paid out over time. HPS is still receiving information that not all of the refunds applied for will be approved, and some will face long delays. However, the United Special Trade Representative (USTR) is now working on replacing the IEEPA tariffs that were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. The Section 122 tariffs at 10 percent that have been imposed, and are due to expire in 150 days, will simply be allowed to expire and will be replaced this summer by new Section 301 tariffs that will be imposed for alleged labor law violations and/or alleged discrimination against U.S. businesses. Bottom line – by the third quarter of 2026, importers in the U.S. bicycle business will be subject to and paying roughly the same level of tariffs they were paying prior to the Supreme Court decision. The leftover mess will be the refunds that will be subject to multiple lawsuits. The only refunds that are clearly due under the law are those paid to importers of record. All others, including retailers and consumers, are subject to the discretion of the importers of record or litigation.

04 03 26: “Industry dodges 'crushing' steel and aluminum tariff.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News BRAIN: “The industry has survived a threat of tariffs of up to 50 percent on steel and aluminum products, which was proposed by juvenile bike brand Guardian and an aluminum trade group last year. The White House on Thursday announced a modified list of products subject to Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, and bicycles are not on the list. The industry submitted over 1,300 comments opposed to the proposal, and industry groups and individuals directly lobbied lawmakers and the Department of Commerce to oppose it as well. The tariff would have applied to the steel and aluminum content of bikes, e-bikes, and frames. The administration has also removed e-bikes, exercise bikes, and e-bike parts from a list of products subject to a steel tariff since last August. However, some steel chains, chain parts, some hand tools, hardware, and bearing retainers remain subject to the tariffs.” HPS ANALYSIS: This was and is very good news for the bicycle business. While bicycles, e-bikes and PA&R are currently subject to “stacked” tariffs (MFN + Section 122 + any applicable Section 301 punitive), they have all, with a few minor exceptions, been removed from the steel and aluminum tariffs. 

04 05 26: “The Iran war just broke the petrodollar.” Bloomberg: “The virtuous loop that has seen America underwrite stability in the Middle East in exchange for Gulf states recycling their dollar revenues into U.S. Treasuries has been broken. The understanding traces back to 1974, when Henry Kissinger struck one of the most consequential financial deals in modern history. Saudi Arabia would price its oil in dollars and park the surpluses in U.S. assets, Treasuries above all. Other Gulf states followed. In exchange, America provided security guarantees and a stable global order. The arrangement was elegant in its circularity: Oil consumers paid dollars for energy, those dollars flowed to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, and from there back into Washington’s debt. For 50 years, this petrodollar loop quietly subsidized American borrowing costs and cemented the greenback’s role as the world’s reserve currency. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has fractured this arrangement at both ends. The flight-to-quality trade has always rested on a political premise: That in a global crisis, the United States is a stabilizer or bystander, not a combatant. But the calculus changes when the U.S. itself is the belligerent; when the conflict is partly America’s war, driving the oil shock, straining Gulf relationships, and generating the fiscal pressure that has bond investors worried about U.S. budget deficits. Kissinger’s 1974 deal held through the Cold War, the Gulf Wars, the financial crisis, and a pandemic. It has not survived this. The petrodollar loop was always a political arrangement dressed in financial clothing. Now that the politics have changed, the finance is following. Note: This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS apologizes for this financially technical article, but thinks that it is important that our readers understand that this war is very different than other wars in that it has, amongst other things, disrupted the balance of investors in U.S. bonds, and accordingly, foreign investment in both the U.S. and our currency.

04 09 26: “Bob Margevicius: Cycling industry must deliver to prove its place in sustainable transport.” Bike Europe: “‘We need to speak with one voice as an industry and bring credible data in order to move into this decade of sustainable transport. We also need to show the world real solutions, and we have to act as a responsible and trusted partner in the United Nations,’” said Bob Margevicius. The lack of verified data on cycling's role in the wider mobility sector is starting to weigh heavily on the industry. The UN Decade of Sustainable Transport (2026-2035) could be the next moment for the bicycle industry to claim a larger space within mobility. But what can the industry add to these meetings? No verified data is available on the role of cycling in mobility. The WBIA (World Bicycle Industry Alliance) meeting during the Taipei Cycle Show gave some clarifications. ‘Why do you think you are entitled to say something about investments in infrastructure, as cycling mobility doesn’t bring in any money [like tax, ed.]?‘ Margevicius, vice president of WBIA, reports being told by the other participants of the UN discussion rounds. Monetize cycling: ‘The BAS covers topics like methodologies, human rights, due diligence, and an audit plan with the assistance of a local consultant,’ said Charlie Liu. ‘They are right that we don’t bring in any direct capital, so we need to monetize the added value of cycling, like sustainable transport, health, and decongestion,’ said Margevicius in Taipei. While the automotive, airline, and public transport industries can put scientific studies of their global impact on the table, the bicycle industry is only just starting. Next to Margevicius in his role as vice president of WBIA was also Ann Chen, CEO of Velo and representing Bicycling Alliance for Sustainability (BAS), Charlie Liu, manager at Giant Group and representing BAS, Anke Schäffner, chief policy officer at ZIV, and Karan Aggarwal, director of Amar Wheels and member at AICMA. These industry heavyweights joined the panel discussions after the event was opened by WBIA President Bayram Akgül and Robert Wu, Chairman of TBA. Earn respect of the global transportation community: The UN Decade of Sustainable Transport was kicked off last December in Geneva, Switzerland, as ‘a milestone moment designed to transform how people move, how goods flow and how societies connect.’ Bob Margevicius openly asked during the WBIA meeting, ‘Why does it matter for cycling, and what changes do we need to identify as an industry? If we are serious about sustainable transport, it's our moment now. The focus of WBIA is six deliverables for the industry to the UN,’ Margevicius said. ‘Our first initiative is to make cycling a transport policy, not just a sport. We also aim for greater, more substantial infrastructure funding to increase transport use and make cycling part of climate change policy. We are working on global safety standards that are all aligned within the industry, as well as structural development funding for cycling. Finally, it is essential to earn and gain the respect of the global transportation community. Therefore, we need accurate data and measurement tools to provide to organisations that demonstrate how cycling is sustainable and an indisputable part of sustainable transportation,’ explained Margevicius.” HPS ANALYSIS: We are going to complete a picture of a global bicycle industry and business that is in transition and changing as the world markets enter a new era. That picture is blurry now and will only be marginally clearer by the end of this newsletter. However, Bob Margevicius is bringing us a very important chunk of the transition and change toward transportation, mobility, and sustainability. These things, relative to the bicycle, are not popular with our current federal government and do not have either administrative, legislative, or financial support. That, however, does not mean the bicycle business should not support and advocate for the U.S. bicycle business becoming and advocating for being a part of the international bicycle community and work toward “aligning” with the overall objectives of the WBIA and BAS.

04 23 26: “Shimano opens 2026 with weak global sales.” Bike Europe: “The slowdown in consumer spending and market uncertainty due to the geopolitical situation is starting to surface in the financial results in the e-bike and bicycle industry. Except for the Oceanian market, Shimano reports weak retail sales worldwide. As a result, net sales in bicycle and e-bike components in the first quarter of 2026 decreased 0.7 percent year-on-year to 87,361 million yen, and operating income decreased 46.3 percent to 7,792 million yen. Shimano’s latest earnings reveal a company grappling with margin compression and reduced profitability. The bicycle components and fishing tackle maker saw net income plummet significantly year-over-year, still reflecting broader challenges in the bicycle industry. Taiwan and China: The main bleeder for Shimano is export to Taiwan. In the first half of 2026, the company expects a year-on-year drop in sales of 38 percent to Taiwan, followed by China with a 16.1 percent decline in shipments. Forecasted sales fluctuations to Europe (-4.3 percent) and the U.S. (+0.9 percent) are rather flat. Group-wide, Shimano’s net income fell 55.5 percent compared to the prior year, a dramatic contraction that outpaced revenue growth. This divergence indicates rising costs and operational inefficiencies. The company’s net profit margin compressed to 7.29 percent, down from healthier levels previously. Operating income dropped 20.6 percent, suggesting pressure across the business.” HPS ANALYSIS: Our readers have seen me state that as Shimano goes, so goes the bicycle business. Shimano is not teetering on the brink, its balance sheet is too strong, but it is signaling a weak 2026 global market.

04 24 26: “Forget 32-inch tires and Chinese brands: The Sea Otter was about generational change.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News BRAIN, by Stephen Frothingham: “Nearly a week after the 2026 Sea Otter Classic closed, I’ve absorbed an astonishing array of reports in the consumer and trade media, LinkedIn, and elsewhere. Some is in line with my experience in Monterey, some is not. It was impossible to avoid a few of the big stories at Sea Otter: 32-inch tires and the arrival of several Chinese brands (including X-Lab, which we wrote about before Sea Otter opened). If X-Lab showed a 32-inch e-MTB with radial-casing tires and AI-driven marketing, it would be so on-point that the industry’s thought leaders would have to shut up and find employment. But as I did at the Taichung Bike Week last fall, I chose to spend my time in Monterey talking to industry leaders — current, past, and future — about large issues. While I plead guilty to trying on some shoes and ogling a few bikes, I mostly avoided the new-product egg hunt. For the new widget and product trend analysis, I would encourage you to check out the blanket coverage by BRAIN’s colleagues at Pinkbike and Velo. I kept my notebook and camera in my pocket most times, and engaged in off-the-record on-background conversations, a privilege I decided I’ve earned after a few decades on the BRAIN trust. When I changed my flight plans to enjoy an appointment-free final day, the stories really started to flow. What I heard were thoughts about transitions and generational changes, on personal and industry-wide levels. Why? It could be that an unusual spate of recent deaths of (mostly retired) industry leaders has got some of us of a certain age to thinking. It could be that, as we emerge from winter and years of market challenges, folks are taking a breath and looking around. They/we are waking up to realize they/we are eight years older than when Trump first threatened tariffs, launching a period of exponentially accelerating uncertainty. It could be that the industry’s uncertainty finally reached what we’ve decided to call the ‘new normal,’ a sustainable level of stress similar to that of a school administrator character in a David Foster Wallace novel who attained what he called a state of ‘Total Worry’ or ‘Reverse-Buddhism.’ Or as one manager told me, ‘We decided to just get on with it.’ I wrote that one down. Make way for the new brands. Whatever the reason, after a few days under the posh Monterey sunshine, the industry was in a reflective mood. A mood of acceptance. Unprompted, the leaders of three significant brands told me their personal/professional plans for transitioning out of their companies. They are bringing on a new generation of talent: People who are more accepting that things aren’t done the same way anymore. In fact, they may not even know how it used to be done. On a larger scale, the brands of our younger days are not necessarily the brands of today. New generations of bike brands are arriving, and others will inevitably fade away. It’s happening even faster on the e-bike motor and e-MTB side. A mountain biker walking his steed across the Laguna Seca track at the end of Friday's event was overheard to say, ‘Do you remember when Trek was the biggest deal around? Back when Lance Armstrong rode their bikes?’ Not to pick on the brand, which is celebrating its 50th anniversary, and we suspect is kicking ass as always, but the rider was reacting to the fact that the Wisconsin brand did not have a display at Sea Otter this year.” HPS ANALYSIS: I recommend this whole article to all of our readers, and my compliments to Stephen Frothingham on a very difficult, but informative and effective summary of the American bicycle market and business in April 2026. Stephen is clearly declaring that we are in the grips of change, writ large. We are going full speed into a new era of riders, brands, wants, needs, channels of distribution, and doing business. The single most significant nugget from Stephen’s article is that Trek did not have a stand at Sea Otter this year. I wonder what John Burke told Stephen about his plans for the future?

04 24 26: “Taiwan’s bike makers report continued sales declines.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News BRAIN: “Taiwan’s three publicly traded bicycle makers — Giant, Merida, and Ideal — each showed sales revenue declines in March and for the complete first quarter. The early 2026 figures come on the heels of weak sales in 2025 for the three. Giant Group down 26 percent for the quarter: Giant Group, the largest of the three, recorded operating revenue of NT$5.6 billion ($178 million) in March, down NT$1.15 billion or 17.0 percent from March 2025. Giant’s first-quarter sales were down 25.7 percent year-over-year. Giant is still unable to ship products from its Taiwan factories to the U.S., for its brand or for its OE customers, due to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s WRO order issued last September. While that may have contributed to the revenue decline, it’s worth noting that Giant can ship from its other Asian and European factories to the U.S., and Giant’s North American sales accounted for less than nine percent of its total revenue in 2024, the most recently available data. So, despite some headlines directly tying Giant's overall sales declines to the WRO, mathematically, that seems unlikely.  Merida down 27 percent for the quarter: Merida Industry sales in March were NT$2.4 billion, down 16.9 percent from March 2025. First-quarter sales were down 34.6 percent. While Merida was not affected by the CBP’s WRO order, the company has quietly made some of the same labor reforms as Giant, including ending the policy of charging migrant workers for recruitment fees and refunding fees for workers who paid them previously. Ideal down 35 percent for the quarter: Ideal Bike’s operating revenues in March were NT$188.8 million, down 31.4 percent from March 2025. Ideal’s first quarter sales were down 34.6 percent year-over-year. Other Taiwan bike companies show mixed results.” HPS ANALYSIS: This is nothing more than confirmation of the previous articles. The article does, as noted, show “mixed results” from the other Taiwanese public bike companies, but the OEMs are canaries in the coal mine because their customers are the global brands that are facing primarily the new Chinese competitors that Stephen Frothingham references in his article, and who have obviously figured out how to cope with U.S. import tariffs, both current and those to come.

Contact Jay Townley: jay@humanpoweredsolutions.com