NEW MARKET DATA, MORE TARIFF NEWS, MARKETS IN FLUX

By Jay Townley

12 05 25: “NBDA launches revolutionary Market Intelligence Program to empower specialty bicycle retailers.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “The National Bicycle Dealers Association (NBDA) today announced the launch of its groundbreaking Market Intelligence Program, providing specialty bicycle retailers with complimentary access to enterprise-grade data analytics, competitive insights, and comprehensive market intelligence previously available only to large corporations. The innovative program, powered by TrackFly technology, addresses a critical gap in the bicycle retail industry where independent dealers have long been forced to make inventory, pricing, and strategic decisions based on limited local observations while major chains leverage sophisticated analytics. ‘For too long, specialty bicycle retailers have been flying blind when making business-critical decisions,’ said NBDA executive director Heather Mason. ‘This program fundamentally changes that dynamic by giving our members the same powerful data tools that big-box stores and online retailers have used to their advantage.’ Available exclusively to NBDA members at zero cost, the market intelligence program provides:

● Real-time sales intelligence with 24/7 dashboard access
● Industry benchmarking to compare performance against peers
● Seasonal intelligence, including weather correlation and demand forecasting
● Competitive product data featuring top sellers by category with specific brands and pricing
● Market share trends tracking brand performance and category growth
● Price banding insights based on actual consumer behavior

TrackFly's advanced mapping tool automatically connects existing POS systems to industry-standardized data, eliminating manual work while ensuring accuracy. Strict data protection protocols guarantee that brands cannot weaponize retailer information, with participants maintaining complete control over what they share. ‘The NBDA's unique position serving both retailers and suppliers makes us the ideal organization to lead this initiative,’ added Stephen Baird, CEO of TrackFly. ‘We're bridging the gap between supply and demand while ensuring specialty bicycle dealers remain at the heart of the industry, not large corporations controlling intelligence for their own benefit.’" HPS ANALYSIS: Announced in early December, the NBDA Market Intelligence Program is truly revolutionary in providing bike shops of all sizes free access to enterprise-grade data analytics, competitive insights, and comprehensive market intelligence previously available only to large corporations. HPS partners and senior associates have all been in the bicycle business for decades, and none of us has ever seen any data intelligence program like this for neighborhood bike shops. The cost of entry is providing the shop’s POS sales data – that is it. In return, bike shops gain access to the same powerful data tools that big-box stores and online retailers have used to their advantage. No large brand or supplier, no matter their size, will be able to gain access to or control bike shop sales data or market intelligence for their own benefit. Contact the NBDA for details about joining this revolutionary data capture program: www.nbda.com  

10 30 25: “Cars are essential in most of the U.S. They're also increasingly unaffordable.” National Public Radio npr: “How have prices changed since before the pandemic? The cost of owning a car is up 40.59 percent since January 2020, according to an index from Navy Federal Credit Union. That index tracks the cost of new and used cars, repairs and maintenance, insurance, tires, accessories, gasoline, parking, and registration and licensing fees. Why have the prices gone up? From 2000 to 2020, the cost of car ownership rose roughly in line with inflation, according to Navy Federal Credit Union's data. But starting in the pandemic, it far outstripped the cost of living overall. Partly, that reflects the soaring cost of vehicles. Pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions led to a chip shortage several years ago, reducing the supply of new vehicles and prompting automakers to focus on their most expensive, highest-margin vehicles. The average new car now costs more than $50,000 — a record — according to Kelley Blue Book. The soaring price of new cars raised demand for used cars, pushing the prices for them up, too; on average, used vehicles now run more than $25,000. Jessica Caldwell, the head of insights at the car-buying site Edmunds, points out that today's cars are nicer than they used to be. ‘It's not as if you're getting the exact same thing just at a higher cost, like a gallon of milk or eggs,’ she says. Instead, new car purchasers ‘are buying something that is bigger, that is nicer, that's more refined, probably has more features in it.’ But the downside is that budget options are getting harder to find, and for people on a tight budget, that makes it harder to afford a car. And it's not just upfront prices that sting. ‘If you look at the past five years, there's something that keeps spiking every year,’ says Heather Long, the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. ‘First, it was gas prices; after Russia invaded Ukraine, we all remember the $5 gas price.’ And then in 2023 and 2024, she continues, ‘car insurance really surged, adding hundreds of dollars a year for many Americans.’ More recently, she says, maintenance and repair costs have soared. Tariffs play a role; so does higher demand for parts, as people keep their cars longer to delay the cost of replacing them. The result is that even though gasoline is now relatively cheap — the national average is just over $3 a gallon — the overall cost of car ownership is painfully higher than it used to be. What are people doing about it? Some people are taking on more debt to buy a car — a growing number of Americans owe more on their vehicles than they're worth, Edmunds data shows. Car loans keep getting bigger: More than 19 percent of all new car loans have monthly payments of $1,000 or more.” HPS ANALYSIS: The cost of owning and maintaining a new or used automobile has become impossible for a growing portion of the American population. I remember my junior and senior years in high school, 1958-1961, when the rite of passage for young men was getting a driver’s license and the use of or ownership of an automobile. Not so today, and some families simply cannot afford it, and some young people have turned away from the automobile as something they do not want in today’s world. No matter the reason, this presents the bicycle business, which is inclusive of e-bikes, with a significant opportunity. Promoting everyday transportation is, HPS submits, every bit as important to the future of the bicycle business as cycling as a recreational activity and sport.

11 12 25: “Upway closes $60 million funding round; plans e-bike refurb centers in Denver and other U.S. cities.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “Refurbished e-bike seller Upway closed a $60 million Series C funding round last week led by an investment by Copenhagen's A.P. Moller Holding. The company said it is looking for U.S. growth and plans to open used e-bike refurbishment centers in Denver and other U.S. cities. Other investors are U.S.-based Galvanize and Ora Global, with continued support from Sequoia Capital and other global firms. The new round brings total funding to more than $125 million since Upway's founding in 2021. Upway said it is doubling down on U.S. growth, expanding operations, creating jobs, and building circular mobility. This aligns with U.S. rebate programs in states like California and Colorado and supports city-level investments in bike infrastructure in New York and Minneapolis, the company said. ‘We founded Upway with a simple idea: light mobility can only be sustainable if it's circular,’ said Upway co-founders Stéphane Ficaja and Toussaint Wattinne in a joint statement. ‘This round allows us to scale that vision and make second-hand the first choice for millions of riders. We're building the industrial and technological infrastructure that gives e-bikes a second life, with the same quality and safety standards as new ones. We're excited and ready to continue establishing this entirely new category, one that combines purpose with performance and sustainability with scale.’ Operating across France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, Spain, and the U.S., Upway has industrial refurbishment centers called UpCenters in New York, Los Angeles, Paris, Berlin, Mechelen, and Düsseldorf. Six additional facilities, including Denver, will open within two years as part of a plan to reach 12 UpCenters across Europe and North America by 2027. This will support a network that will employ over 2,000 mechanics and operations specialists by 2030, Upway said. Upway buys used e-bikes, refurbishes them in-house, and sells them online with a one-year warranty and home delivery. Inventory includes more than 200 brands and 2,500 models. With an average discount of 45 percent versus retail, Upway says its customers save an average of $1,000 per bike.” HPS ANALYSIS: The used bike product category is already the highest gross revenue producer, at 50-percent-plus margins in the IBD. The downside, where bike shops need to catch up rapidly, is in 2024, only 8 percent of bike shops reported selling used bikes. Upway represents the recent commercial growth of the used product category and is reaching out to work with bike shops. James Moore, Moore’s Bicycle Shop, Hattiesburg, Mississippi, has developed a large, well-balanced and profitable used bike product segment, and has worked with the NBDA to produce several excellent webinars that are posted on YouTube, and will be presenting at the upcoming 2026 NBDA and CABDA Events. Visit the NBDA website (www.nbda.com) or Moore’s Bike Shop website (www.mooresbikes.com) for more information for retailers about used bikes, and for brand suppliers to develop previously-owned programs with their dealer organizations. 

11 13 25: “3D-printing technology company Carbon closes on $60M funding.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “Carbon, Inc., which provides the technology behind most of the industry's 3D-printed helmets and saddles, as well as 3D-printed running shoes from adidas, has closed on a $60 million funding round. Participants in the funding include Carbon's current investors Sequoia Capital, Silver Lake, adidas, Baillie Gifford, Madrone, and Northgate. In an interview with BRAIN last month, a Carbon representative said the company has developed cycling products with Fizik, Selle Italia, and Trek, as well as several other brands that prefer not to be named for competitive reasons. It has worked with industry brands to produce or develop saddles, grips, helmets, footwear, and chamois pads for cycling. In 2019, it announced that Specialized was among the companies to use its L1 printer. Carbon manufactures 3D printing machines, materials, and software. Although it sometimes sells its machines and technology, it more often acts as a manufacturing partner to enable large-scale production of printed products. The company said it is close to achieving ‘cash-flow positive’ operations and will use the new funding to scale capacity. The latest funding follows a $260 million round in 2019, which at the time brought Carbon's total fundraising to more than $680 million and valued the company at about $2.4 billion.” HPS ANALYSIS: We have made no secret of HPS’s interest in and support for 3D printing as one of the technologies of the near-term future for the establishment of domestic bicycle manufacturing, including e-bikes, in the United States. Europe is ahead of North America in 3D printing applications for components, including bicycle frame components, in addition to the components mentioned in the article. Whole and complete houses and housing tracts are already being constructed using large-scale 3D printers. HPS opines that U.S. domestic bicycle manufacturing will return in totally new ways, forced by import tariffs to take advantage of new technologies, including, but not limited to, 3D printing.

11 17 25: “NBSTP accreditation program starting for mechanics.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “The National Bicycle Service Technician Program is now accepting mechanics seeking accreditation on the NBSTP website. The program was created by retailer Mike Shapiola, who received the Department of Labor's approval in May to make the profession an apprenticeable occupation. Shapiola's program offers two ways to become accredited: through the Department of Labor Apprentice Program or through prior completed training. The NBSTP is a voluntary initiative designed to monitor, elevate, and provide a pathway to develop mechanic skills. In May, the Department of Labor approved Shapiola's request to declare Bicycle Repair Technician apprenticeable. The NBSTP website also features a job board for registered members. Shapiola, the owner of Spin Zone Cycling, received support from industry professionals who wrote letters to the Department of Labor advocating for the distinction from solely an occupation. Apprenticeable occupations generally are learned through a program of on-the-job supervised training combined with instruction to meet industry standards. Other apprenticeable occupations are Automobile Service Technicians and Mechanics, Plumbers, and Pharmacy Technicians. The NBSTP outlines a career path and options for obtaining training from approved institutes. Similar to the Automotive Service Excellence certification, the program will incorporate training at colleges like Northwest Arkansas Community College that offer the curriculum. Developing industry standards for training also would help shops establish a salary structure, Shapiola said, based on keeping training up to date and performance.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS is proud to have been one of the many members of the bicycle industry to have written letters to the Department of Labor advocating for Mike Shapiola’s application. A formal Bicycle Retailer Technician apprentice program is long overdue. I attended the weeklong Schwinn Service School in 1958 as a junior in high school, and as a part of my Diversified Education (DE) program. As a part of my DE field work for high school credit, I worked at Hazel Park Bicycle and Skate Exchange. While I was not a good mechanic, I did do well as a sales associate and started a 24-year career with the Schwinn Bicycle Company in 1966. While my “apprenticeship” was the fortunate combination of two visionary bike shop owners and my high school’s DE program, a formal Bicycle Retailer Technician apprentice program would have created the career path that is needed now in order to assure the future of the American specialty bicycle retail channel of trade. This program deserves the full support of the whole of the bicycle industry.  

11 18 25: “Confidence in market recovery has eroded quickly, purchase index shows.” Bike Europe: “2025 once again may prove how difficult forecasting is for the global e-bike and bicycle industry. A strong first half boosted confidence, but the latest Global Bicycle Purchasing Index (GBPI) reveals that optimism is fading fast. The assessment of the industry situation appears to be increasingly negative. The GBPI survey was conducted for the second time, following the launch of the index at Eurobike 2025. In June, the index still stood at 101.6, but by early November, it had slid to 98.8. A reading above 100 signifies sectoral expansion, while below 100 indicates contraction, offering a clear snapsehot of business trends. Business mood has turned since June: The results show that business mood has changed significantly in the past months. The current situation in the industry was assessed as bad or very bad by 66 percent of the participants in the survey, worsening from 49 percent last June. While 50 percent of the respondents said the market situation this quarter would stay the same compared with last year, no less than 29 percent expect the situation will be less positive. The sharpest indication of the market contraction is the new incoming order level. In June, 46 percent of the respondents reported an increase in the level of new orders, but this has now dropped to 31 percent. At the same time, 21 percent report an increase in inventory levels (up from 16 percent in June). These indicators confirm the business mood at Taichung Bike Week, only two months ago. Product managers saw no purpose in coming over to Taiwan, or their trip was cancelled for budget reasons. Exhibitors told Bike Europe that lining up meetings before the event had been difficult. Many visitors weren’t buying into hopes of a 2026 market rebound either. Leading companies’ third-quarter results clearly reflected the market slump.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS urges our readers to please take the time to read this whole article. It isn’t full of optimism, and it is an honest, although somewhat arduous narrative affirming, from the European viewpoint, that 2026 will not be any better than 2025.  

11 18 25: “Cutting ties with China is harder than companies expected.” BLOOMBERG: “The Dong Phuong toy factory lies in the town of Phu Ly, a two-hour drive south of the Vietnamese capital, Hanoi. But you’d be forgiven for thinking it’s in China. Chinese characters greet visitors on the giant stone sign out front. The gate faces north, and just inside, there’s a pond oriented toward the northeast filled with koi fish, feng shui touches intended to bring good energy and luck. And the management is almost entirely Chinese, because the plant is owned by a company that hails from the mainland city of Zhejiang. For Elana Woldenburg Ruffman, that’s a mixed blessing. She’s the vice president for marketing at Learning Resources Inc., whose educational toys, such as the Code & Go Robot Mouse, Spike the Fine Motor Hedgehog, and Kanoodle puzzles, can be found in stores across the U.S.. Learning Resources has long relied on Chinese manufacturers, but Ruffman is trying to move production elsewhere in response to President Donald Trump’s trade wars. The fourth-generation family company (Ruffman is a great-granddaughter of the founder) sued Trump over tariffs in April, arguing that only Congress has the authority to set them. Lower courts ruled that the levies were indeed illegal, and the U.S. Supreme Court heard the case on Nov. 5. But Ruffman is hedging her bets. ‘We must diversify our supply chain to survive,’ she says. ‘We don’t know what the government is going to do. We can’t just sit around and wait.’ So she and the company’s sales chief, her brother Stephen Woldenberg, are leading a six-person team on a weeklong tour of Vietnam, visiting more than a dozen factories. I’m tagging along to get an on-the-ground view of the hidden costs of this seismic shift in manufacturing and the ripple effects on businesses and consumers. Vietnam is an obvious alternative to China. Sure, the White House has imposed a levy of 20 percent on goods made in Vietnam. But that’s still lower than the 31 percent average tariff on exports from China that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping hammered out in October, and far below the 145 percent levy that was threatened earlier in the year. Like thousands of other executives, though, Ruffman is discovering that while you can move your manufacturing out of China, it’s much harder to move China out of your manufacturing. The toymaker offers about 2,000 products. A few years ago, more than 80 percent of them were produced in China by companies that tapped into the country’s countless vendors of plastic resins, paint pigments, computer boards, and other materials. Ruffman aims to dramatically reduce that share, which will require immense help from suppliers. ‘We asked them, ‘Are you committed to moving out of China?’ she says. ‘Because if you’re not, we need to find an alternative.’ Vietnam has 53 million workers (out of a population of 100 million), less than a tenth the size of China’s workforce, so the country simply can’t accommodate all the companies quitting its northern neighbor. And China has about 10,000 toy manufacturers, versus roughly 100 factories in Vietnam skilled enough to produce for export, according to supply chain adviser CEL Consulting. This lack of scale means less competition. The factory employs about a third more workers than similar facilities in China, and Ruffman says Vietnam’s output per employee is as much as 40 percent lower. That’s because Chinese factories have invested heavily in automation and can rely on an experienced workforce. ‘The White House has imposed a 40 percent levy on anything suspected of being ‘transshipped’—imported from China, relabeled and forwarded to the U.S.. ‘It’s not clear at this point what the transshipment rules are, so we’re trying to be very cautious,’ Ruffman says. ‘But we’re just left making guesses.’ Add it all up, and Vietnam’s costs can run 10 percent to 15 percent higher than those in China. But the company has no plans to stop shifting production away from the mainland. With tariffs bouncing around so much, Ruffman says it’s imperative to diversify sourcing. And someone has to pay—manufacturers, brands, retailers, or consumers. For now, Learning Resources has boosted prices an average of 6 percent to account for tariffs. The toymaker aims to hold the line at about that level, but eventually that may become impossible if the trade wars continue. ‘Raising prices is the last thing we want to do,’ she says. ‘After a certain point, no one’s going to buy your products.’ ‘Vietnam certainly has potential,’ she says as we say our goodbyes. But China’s combination of expertise and infrastructure ‘doesn’t exist anywhere else,’ she says. ‘That just cannot be replicated in 2025 in Vietnam. It’s going to take time.’” HPS ANALYSIS: My apology for the length of this excerpt from a long and well-researched, and well-written article that is worth your time. HPS has attempted to point out why it is proving so difficult for companies to extract sourcing from China. This article goes through the details to show very clearly why a large American educational toy company is struggling with resourcing from China to Vietnam. In the case of the American bicycle business, including e-bikes, there is simply not enough capacity in the rest of the world to replace China as a source for the U.S. market demand pre-2025. HPS has paid close attention to the shrinking bicycle market forecasts through 2030 that the American trade association has been sending to its members. Even at these lower, post-2025 market forecasts, it will be difficult to extract from Chinese sourcing, for the same reasons covered in this article.  

11 19 25: “Pedego sold to ownership group behind Urtopia e-bikes.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “E-bike retailer and brand Pedego has a new owner: the U.S.-based ownership group behind Urtopia, a start-up e-bike brand that offers high-tech carbon fiber and connected e-bikes. Larry Pizzi, the CEO of newly formed New Pedego Holdings Inc., said Urtopia will provide engineering and supply chain efficiencies and will allow Pedego’s licensed retailers to access high-tech models that complement Pedego’s existing product line. The partnership will also create engineering and supply chain efficiencies that will benefit both Pedego and Urtopia-branded e-bikes, he said. In 2021, Verlinvest, an investor group established by the shareholders in the international beverage group AB-InBev, took a majority share in Pedego, which was founded by Don DiCostanzo in 2008. DiCostanzo remained on the company’s board until Oct. 20 this year and is now unconnected to the company. Pizzi, an industry veteran and co-chair of PeopleForBike’s e-bike subcommittee, celebrated his one-year anniversary with Pedego this week. Pizzi said Verlinvest decided this spring to exit its investment, and he spent most of the year identifying a new buyer. He said he had interest from four potential buyers before settling on Urtopia. Pedego and Urtopia had already been working together, as Urtopia was one of a handful of third-party brands that Pedego dealers are authorized to sell to complement Pedego’s product line. Pizzi said Urtopia models appeal to a younger, more ‘tech-forward’ buyer than Pedego-branded models, which appeal to an older customer.” HPS ANALYSIS: Pedego has been utilizing one of the most interesting business plans HPS has been following pre-pandemic within the emerging e-bike product segment. In addition to announcing the details about the new owner of Pedego, this BRAIN article points out that Pedego reached a total of 220 dealers during the pandemic, and from that peak, now has approximately 120 dealers in North America, which we assume was the total at the time of the sale. The article states that Pedego plans to grow its dealer count during the latter half of 2026, with the goal of reaching 500 U.S. dealer stores by 2029. Pedego very well could be offering what e-bike dealers need to first survive, followed by thriving, between 2026 and 2030. HPS will be watching both the evolution and the growth of the Pedego dealer program with great interest.

11 24 25: “Rad Power Bikes hits another roadblock as U.S. safety commission issues product safety warning.” GeekWire: “Embattled electric bike maker Rad Power Bikes is facing another challenge as the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) issued a warning to consumers Monday to stop using some of the Seattle-based company’s bikes because of danger posed by their lithium-ion batteries. The product safety warning urges consumers to immediately remove and dispose of hazardous batteries that ‘can unexpectedly ignite and explode, posing a fire hazard to consumers, especially when the battery or the harness has been exposed to water and debris.’ The CPSC said Rad ‘has refused to agree to an acceptable recall’ for the batteries, which are manufactured in China. The batteries were sold as replacements and with a variety of Rad bikes via Rad’s website, Best Buy stores, and independent bike shops. ‘The report adds another significant obstacle to Rad’s continued operations. Earlier this month, Rad revealed that it was struggling to survive due to financial difficulties, and the e-bike seller said that it was in danger of shutting down by early January. On Monday, Rad disputed the CPSC’s findings. ‘Rad Power Bikes firmly stands behind our batteries and our reputation as leaders in the e-bike industry, and strongly disagrees with the CPSC’s characterization of certain Rad batteries as defective or unsafe,’ the company said in a lengthy statement provided to GeekWire (in full below). Rad said the significant cost of CPSC’s all-or-nothing recall demand would force Rad to shut down immediately, with no way to support its riders or employees. Rad said it offered ‘multiple good-faith solutions’ to address CPSC’s concerns over at least 31 reports of fire, including what the agency said were 12 reports of property damage caused by Rad batteries, totaling approximately $734,500. Rad said the incident rate associated with the batteries in the CPSC’s notice is a fraction of one percent. ‘While that number is low, we know even one incident is one too many, and we are heartbroken by any report involving our products,’ the company’s statement read. The company said its batteries were tested by independent third-party labs as part of its typical product testing and again during the CPSC investigation, ‘and confirmed compliance with the highest industry standards.’” HPS ANALYSIS: Rad Power Bikes, founded as a direct-to-consumer brand in 2015 and headquartered in Seattle, Washington, made headlines during the pandemic that rattled the legacy bicycle business. Rad raised more than $300 million from investors in 2021. The company was valued at $1.65 billion that year, according to PitchBook, making it one of a handful of “unicorn” startups in the Seattle region at the time. The company has attracted nearly 700,000 riders around the globe, but a series of missteps and macroeconomic challenges in recent years have led to more than seven rounds of layoffs and a remarkable downfall. This latest CPSC Safety Warning is clearly a compromise because Rad has dared the commission to declare a formal recall that the company says will put it out of business. HPS fears the Rad business situation will quickly deteriorate, and the lithium-ion battery fire warning will contribute to negative PR for the bicycle business.  

11 25 25: "‘'The results will be crushing’: U.S. industry reacts to proposed metal tariffs.” Bike Europe: “Guardian Bikes is lobbying the U.S. Department of Commerce to include bicycles, bicycle frames, and certain steel bicycle parts in the pending Section 232 tariff inclusions.” “A renewed tariff battle threatens to deepen the fault lines in the United States bicycle industry as U.S. President Donald Trump's administration weighs expanding steel and aluminium tariffs to include bicycle parts. Kids' bike manufacturer Guardian Bikes is lobbying hard for inclusion, positioning tariffs as a pathway to U.S. manufacturing. But U.S. trade association PeopleForBikes argues the resulting shockwave would accelerate the string of bankruptcies already rattling the industry. United States bicycle brands have been feeling the pinch of the 2025 tariff wars for months now, and the proposed 50 percent tariffs on the aluminium and steel content of all imported bicycles, frames, and e-bikes would stack on existing high tariffs, pushing many industry players to ‘unsustainable levels’ ‘The consensus from the industry is that, if these proposed tariffs are executed, the results will be crushing for the U.S. bicycle industry,’ said Ash Lovell, vice president of government relations at PeopleForBikes. Made-in-America bikes: U.S. manufacturer Guardian Bikes has made a series of strategic moves this year to double down on the American market and become ‘100 percent made in the USA.’ In April 2025, the kids’ bike manufacturer launched its new domestic bicycle frame production — thanks to $19 million in financing from JPMorganChase. At that time, the company switched to using domestic steel and aluminium for manufacturing. Now, Guardian Bikes has lobbied the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) to include bicycles, bicycle frames, and certain steel bicycle parts in the pending Section 232 tariff inclusions. Guardian Bike writes in its request that it faces ‘severe competition’ from foreign raw material imports, particularly from China. But PeopleForBikes argues that the Section 232 tariffs are designed to protect U.S. interests in steel and aluminium production, ‘not to give one company a competitive advantage in the marketplace.’ The trade organisation further argues that the company’s limited production capacity and niche, high-cost children's bicycle models mean Guardian Bikes ‘cannot possibly meet the national demand for bicycles.’ Industry-wide comment letter: In October, PeopleForBikes invited manufacturers and bicycle retailers who will be affected by the tariffs to respond to the DOC during the public comment period, which ended 21 Oct. Lovell told Bike Europe that ‘Dozens of leading manufacturers have submitted their own comments on top of PeopleForBikes' industry-wide comment letter.’ In addition, Lovell reports that over 500 individual retailers have submitted comments or signed on to the National Bicycle Dealers Association comments against the inclusion ‘because of the dire risk these proposed inclusions pose to their American-owned independent retail stores.’ For some companies, the tariffs have already proven too much. Kent Bicycles, in operation since 1912, shut its doors and laid off workers in May. Kent Chairperson Arnold Kamler said the move was largely driven by high tariffs on Chinese-made parts. Electric Bicycle Co. also went under, filing for bankruptcy in September. EBC Founder Sean Lupton-Smith told Bicycle Retailer, ‘(I) thought Trump would save the day, but in fact our tariffs on our parts went up from 25 percent to 55 percent and more.’ Guardian Bikes wasn’t the only one lobbying for higher tariffs on imported aluminium and steel. The Aluminum Extruders Council also submitted a request, stating that the volume of foreign imports has hurt the domestic aluminium industry. Contrary to this statement, however, are the skyrocketing stock prices of two of the biggest aluminium suppliers in the United States — both members of AEC.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS is alerting clients to the probability that the U.S. Commerce Department will find after the first of the new year, that the Section 232 aluminum and steel content tariffs are applicable to imported bicycles. While there are and will be lawsuits and extreme confusion, this finding, combined with the other U.S. import tariffs still in place after the Supreme Court Case, will force a complete restructuring of the American bicycle business and market from 2026 forward. In short, the result will be initially devastating – as the Commerce Department intends – until investors come forward to support the bicycle business reshoring and Congress passes the U.S. Bicycle Production and Assembly Act (H.R. 3904), driving a strategy to bring bicycle assembly and manufacturing back to the United States. 

11 26 25: “Parents, here’s what to know if your kid wants a Sur Ron or high power e-bike.” electrek: “If you’re a parent of a teenager, there’s a decent chance you’ve heard the phrase ‘Can I get a Sur Ron?’ sometime in the last year. Before you panic-Google it or head to Amazon to see what one of these bikes costs, there are some important things you should know about this class of electric two-wheelers that have become all the rage with teenagers these days. First, let’s clear something up: Sur Ron is technically one of many brands that make these styles of bikes, but it’s become a catchall term, kind of like Kleenex. People often say Sur Ron when what they usually mean is any lightweight electric dirtbike with mountain-bike styling and motorcycle performance. The brand Sur Ron may have kick-started the category, but now there are plenty of similar machines: Talaria, Tuttio, Rawrr, ERidePro, Segway X260, and plenty of smaller new brands popping up constantly. For the purposes of this topic, just look at whatever model your kid is asking for. If it looks like the pictures you’re seeing here in this article – dirtbike frame, no pedals, or offers 40+ mph speeds – then regardless of brand, you’re dealing with a Sur Ron-style electric motorcycle. And that brings us to the key reality parents need to know: A Sur Ron is not an electric bicycle. It is a light electric motorcycle.  Kids might not realize that when they’re begging for one after their friends got one. Many of these bikes are marketed with vaguely bicycle-ish visuals, and influencers often ride them on public roads or on bike paths. But legally, practically, and mechanically, these machines are nowhere near the same thing as an electric bicycle – and that’s the core issue parents need to understand before clicking ‘buy.’” HPS ANALYSIS: NBDA will be issuing a Policy Notice to its members about so-called “e-moto’s” which are the subject of this article. It needs to be made clear that they are not an e-bike – they are a light electric motorcycle. Accordingly, e-moto’s and all electric vehicles without fully operable pedals, powered by electric motors of more than 750 watts (over 1 h.p.) while ridden by an operator who weighs 170 pounds, at more than 20 m.p.h. need to be properly defined and regulated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, because they do not fall within the CPSC definition of a bicycle. 

12 01 25: “Leadership transition at Pon: Smalbraak exits.” Bike Europe: “ After a 25-year career, of which 15 years were in the role of CEO, Janus Smalbraak resigned at Pon to pursue a new professional challenge. Smalbraak announced this resignation at Pon in a LinkedIn post earlier today. Volkswagen Financial Services AG CEO Christian Dahlheim has been appointed to succeed Smalbraak. Dahlheim will succeed Smalbraak on 1 April 2026, but he will resign from his position as CEO of Volkswagen Financial Services on 1 January. According to Smalbraak, Pon Holdings has found an ‘excellent successor’ in Christian Dahlheim. ‘I am convinced that he will take over the helm with passion and take Pon to the next level,’ Smalbraak wrote on LinkedIn. Under the guidance of Janus Smalbraak, Pon entered the bicycle industry in June 2011 with the takeover of Gazelle, soon followed by many other companies. ‘I made that decision – always with the team,’ Janus recalled during one of his rare interviews published by Bike Europe in 2022. ‘We consciously decided to get into bikes. We first looked at the Accell Group, but that was too expensive. We could buy Gazelle for much less money,’ continued Smalbraak. ‘At the time, it was, as we would call it, a pretty old lady.’ The journey of Pon: ‘The Pon company and the family are grateful to Janus Smalbraak,’ said Fanja Pon, chairman of the supervisory board, to Automotive News. ‘Thanks to his energetic leadership, we have experienced incredible adventures, achieved significant milestones, and there has never been a dull moment in the past 15 years. The journey Pon has embarked on under his leadership has resulted in a diversified family-owned multinational focused on mobility, of which the bicycle group, alongside the automotive activities, is now an established part. We respect Janus’ decision and regret his departure, and we are delighted to have found such a capable successor in Christian. With him, we welcome not only an experienced executive but also an expert in our markets. Moreover, we are convinced that Christian is an excellent fit for the Pon culture and will further strengthen it. We look forward to working together.’” HPS ANALYSIS: What does this senior leadership change mean to the bicycle business? Janus Smalbraak is a cyclist and clearly worked at aligning Pon Holding's interest in automotive with human-powered transportation. His replacement as CEO is from the automotive industry, and both the bicycle and automotive industries are headed into uncharted territory. Of note CEO & SVP of Pon.Bike, Anya Haarhoff, left the company last April after serving for just 14 months, and as far as HPS knows, has not been replaced as of this writing. Also, according to Bike Europe, the managing director of the Pon.Bike factory in Germany, Marjam van Coillie, left the company earlier this month. None of this movement of executives is unusual in a company the size of Pon, but is still enough to raise questions about the future of the bicycle and e-bike business at Pon.

12 02 25: “Costco sues Trump administration for refund of tariffs.” THE NEW YORK TIMES: “Costco has sued the Trump administration for a refund of the tariffs it has paid on imported goods, should the Supreme Court rule them illegal, becoming one of the largest companies to challenge President Trump’s sweeping levies in court. The complaint, filed on Friday in the U.S. Court of International Trade, argues that Mr. Trump misused a 1977 law in his move to implement tariffs on products from more than 100 countries. The lawsuit asserts that Congress, not the president, has the authority to set tariffs, and that Mr. Trump exceeded the authority granted to him by the law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. ‘The text of IEEPA does not use the word ‘tariff’ or any term of equivalent meaning,’ Costco states in the lawsuit, which was reported earlier by NBC News. The act allows the president to regulate or prohibit foreign transactions during a national emergency, but does not authorize the imposition of tariffs, according to the lawsuit. Kush Desai, a spokesman for the White House, said in a statement that the ‘economic consequences of the failure to uphold President Trump’s lawful tariffs are enormous, and this suit highlights that fact. The White House looks forward to the Supreme Court’s speedy and proper resolution of this matter.’ It has said in the past that its use of the IEEPA is lawful because the law gives the president the authority to ‘regulate’ the ‘importation’ of foreign property to deal with emergencies. The challenge by Costco, the largest warehouse club chain in the United States, echoes arguments that a number of small businesses have already made before the Supreme Court in lawsuits against Mr. Trump’s tariffs. Costco argues that the Trump administration’s implementation of them has created chaos. The tariffs have been ‘threatened, modified, suspended, and reimposed, with the markets gyrating in response,’ the lawsuit says. The lawsuit does not disclose how much Costco has paid in tariffs.” HPS ANALYSIS: Costco may have heard the same things HPS has relative to the U.S. refunding the IEEPA tariffs collected in the event the U.S. Supreme Court finds for plaintiffs. HPS has already been advised, and passed along to its clients, that the U.S. government is not planning to refund any of the tariffs collected, even if the Supreme Court so orders. The government has already filed various legal actions to prepare for not refunding, and HPS is watching for other importers to either join the Costco suit or file their own lawsuits. The majority of the importers in the bicycle business can not afford to file suit against the U.S. government and hope the big guys like Costco will establish precedet. HPS continues to advise clients that they should take whatever action their import advisors recommend, but not to count on receiving any refunds of import duties paid under the IEEPA tariffs in the event the Supreme Court finds for plaintiffs.   

12 02 25: “Mom-and-pop business bankruptcies hit a record as debts rise.” BLOOMBERG: “A six-year-old federal program designed to help the smallest American businesses cut debt and get a fresh start has set a record for the number of cases filed, court data show. More than 2,200 people and small firms filed for bankruptcy this year under the so-called Subchapter V rules, which make it cheaper and faster to win relief from creditors, according to data provider Epic Bankruptcy Analytics. ‘Creditors are just breathing down their necks,’ said Carol Fox, a court-approved trustee who oversees more than two dozen cases filed in Southern Florida. High borrowing costs, cautious consumers, and the Trump administration’s war are weighing on earnings for the smallest businesses while optimism fell to a six-month low in October. The number of Subchapter V cases is rising faster than the overall rate for Chapter 11 bankruptcies, which businesses and wealthy individuals typically use to restructure their debts. Mom-and-Pop Bankruptcies Hit Record: ‘Year to date through November, Subchapter V cases increased more than 8 percent to 2,221, compared to the same period last year, Epiq data show. At the same time, Chapter 11 petitions are up about 1 percent to a little more than 6,000. Epiq collects information from the federal courts on the various types of bankruptcies filed every day in the U.S. ... Consumer bankruptcy cases, typically filed under the Chapter 13 rules, are also up compared to recent years when an unusually low number of individuals sought protection from creditors. So far, more than 180,000 Chapter 13 cases have been filed, or nearly 5 percent more than the first 11 months of last year.”  HPS ANALYSIS: There appears to be a bifurcation between the economic performance of big business and small. HPS is advising clients to be concerned about the increase in small business and consumer bankruptcies. 

12 03 25: “Trend in focus: Subscription models bridging the gap to bicycle ownership.” Bike Europe: “With their signature wheels, baskets or colourways, fleets of public bike sharing systems have cropped up in bike racks around Europe in recent years. Their appearance has ruffled the feathers of traditional retailers and big bike brands. But their arrival may be more of a help than a hindrance to the bicycle industry, according to recent data. These bike sharing systems, once viewed as a niche experiment, have evolved into a mainstream urban innovation. As more riders shift from traditional bike ownership to sharing and subscription services, cycling becomes more accessible for the masses. What’s more, for consumers considering bike ownership, subscription models are ‘a kind of stepping stone,’ said Natalie Diekmann, chief commercial officer at Swapfiets. ‘Subscription models lower the barrier for cycling adoption, and we actively promote this.’ “In mature markets, Diekmann says consumers choosing a subscription service like Swapfiets often just don’t want to deal with the complexities and permanency of ownership. The company’s traditional pedal bike clientele is a mixture of students, nomads, and newcomers. But, ‘with e-bikes, it’s a bit different,’ Diekmann explained. ‘It’s a newer product — and a really expensive product. People are very often using a subscription model to figure out if it’s right for them.’ Diekmann said this is reflected in the data, with around two out of 10 Swapfiets customers indicating they are getting a different bike when ending their subscription. This rate is also higher for Swapfiets’ e-bike riders than it is for departing traditional bike customers. Data from UK bicycle and e-bike dealer Paul’s Cycles highlighted the growing popularity of bicycle share schemes as an opportunity to turn short-term rental clients into long-term owners. ‘Retailers should see rental schemes as a gateway, not competition,’ said Paul’s Cycles managing director Tom Thornley. ‘New riders and hesitant buyers now have a low-barrier entry point into cycling, which only expands the cycling ecosystem.’” HPS ANALYSIS: At the onset, HPS is advocating for American development and application of “subscription” or lease models whereby a consumer can sign an agreement with a bike shop either through one of the brands represented or a financial institution to agree a price and make monthly payments over an agreed period of time on a bicycle, e-bike or cargo-bike. HPS is not sure lease models will provide enough profitability for bike shops, but encourages investigation of applicable European models to determine if a profitable model can be rolled in the U.S. that will be financially beneficial to brands and retailers, while providing consumers with the ability to acquire a higher priced e-bike or cargo bike for everyday transportation use, and have the option of purchase and ownership at the end of lease period, or another lease going forward. Such a model can provide a financial vehicle for brands and retailers, like bike shops, to allow lower-income consumers with good credit histories to obtain, utilize, and get all the benefits of “owning” a transportation-focused bicycle or e-bike.

12 05 25: “Giant moving U.S. headquarters to Boulder next year.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “Giant Group USA will relocate from California to Boulder, Colorado, with the transition beginning early in the new year and with most employees expected to be settled by late summer and early fall. According to a news release announcing the move on Friday, Giant Group USA said it is in the last stages of securing a location near downtown, ‘placing the company at the center of one of the most influential cycling and outdoor communities in the world … Boulder offers a unique combination of community, terrain, and industry partnership opportunities that align perfectly with Giant's mission and business vision,; said Chris Lai, Giant USA’s operations general manager. According to Giant Group USA, Boulder's cycling infrastructure, industry ecosystem, and outdoor culture make it an ideal environment for its next phase of U.S. growth. ‘This relocation positions Giant to realign our business planning and energize our team, enabling us to better serve our retailers, athletes, and riders,’ said Angelo Mascelli, business general manager. ‘It also reinforces our commitment to delivering the next generation of product innovations and brand experiences.’" HPS ANALYSIS: HPS has not asked, and it probably should get more detail about “why” Giant Group USA is making this announced move to Boulder, Colorado. The American bicycle business is about to begin another pivotal year, with perhaps more unknowns than knowns ahead, and this appears to be a strategic move. With that said, what’s the strategy – exactly? We have read the article, but there are two places to strategically locate the HQ of a bicycle-related business in the U.S. – Boulder, Colorado, or Bentonville, Arkansas. As a contact in Europe opined – “…it’s political.” I guess I will ask when the opportunity presents itself.

12 09 25: “Guest editorial by Pat Cunnane: It’s time to break the cycle of uncertainty.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “Business thrives on certainty. It is a prerequisite for investment, hiring, and long-term planning. Yet for the American bicycle industry, the last three decades — and especially the last five years — have been characterized by anything but. Over time, this instability has led to a total collapse of domestic bicycle manufacturing. That is why Congress should pass the U.S. Bicycle Production and Assembly Act (H.R. 3904) to halt this cycle of uncertainty and weakness and forge a strategy to bring bicycle assembly and manufacturing back to the United States. The U.S. Bicycle Production and Assembly Act (H.R. 3904) is bipartisan legislation designed to eliminate the primary cost barrier that prevents large-scale bicycle assembly and manufacturing from returning to the United States. Its central mechanism is the creation of a temporary, 10-year duty-free window for specific imported bicycle components, provided those components are used exclusively for final assembly or manufacturing of complete bicycles (including e-bikes) in the U.S. Today’s statistics tell the sobering story: more than 97% of all bicycles sold in the United States are imported. The existing Section 301 Tariffs (imposed during the first Trump administration and extended by the Biden administration) and the new reciprocal tariffs imposed this year — which are subject to a Supreme Court ruling — alone will not bring production back to the U.S. But passing H.R. 3904 can help us get where we need to be.” HPS ANALYSIS: HPS has already told clients that this editorial uses questionable pricing data, but the overall message about HR 3904, The U.S. Bicycle Production and Assembly Act, is more important and right on the money. HPS and the NBDA have communicated with and continue to work with co-sponsors relative to this legislation and actively encourage the whole of the bicycle industry to support H.R. 3904. As noted earlier, HPS is of the opinion that the U.S. Commerce Department and the administration are taking whatever action they can to make it as difficult as possible to be an importer and will continue to make it as difficult as it can until the bicycle business has the support of H.R. 3904 in establishing the foundation for reshoring bicycle and e-bike manufacturing.

12 09 25: “How tariffs hit the brakes on America’s booming e-bike industry.” The Washington Post: “Rad Power Bikes is on the verge of becoming the biggest casualty yet in the nation’s struggling electric bicycle sector, which saw its pandemic-era growth spurt blunted by tariffs, overproduction and slowing demand. The Seattle-based company recently notified Washington state officials that, barring a rescue deal, it could cease operations as soon as January. Like other domestic e-bike brands, Rad manufactures its products in Asia, with a network of U.S. shops responsible for a small amount of final assembly. But import duties under both the Biden and Trump administrations sent manufacturing expenses spiraling, the company has said, forcing it to absorb some costs and pass along others to consumers. Now a spate of battery fires may serve up the final blow for Rad: Last month, federal safety regulators issued an advisory affecting nine e-bike models because their lithium-ion batteries could unexpectedly ignite and explode. The company insists its products are safe. Now Rad, which has long billed itself as the biggest e-bike brand in North America, is pushing up against the same market forces that helped push such rivals as Electric Bike Co. into bankruptcy and Juiced Bikes out of business. Tariffs are ‘stressing U.S.-based companies, in some cases past the breaking point, while not seeming to have much effect on foreign marketplace sellers who are doing business as usual,’ said Matt Moore, policy and general counsel of the trade group PeopleForBikes.” HPS ANALYSIS: As this article points out, “Rad Power Bikes is on the verge of becoming the biggest casualty yet in the nation’s struggling electric bicycle sector, which saw its pandemic-era growth spurt blunted by tariffs, overproduction and slowing demand.”  

12 09 25: “Strava report shows both weakness and opportunity for cycling.” THE OUTER LINE: “Strava’s recent ‘year in sport’ compendium provided a remarkably transparent view into consumer interaction with the tech platform’s services, and the contents bolstered momentum towards its expected early 2026 IPO. However, cycling was scarcely mentioned in the presentation. Running, on the other hand, is on a participation surge that seems unlikely to crest, given its low cost of entry and its popularity across various age and geographic demographics; it has become the greatest contributor to Strava’s membership growth and year-round usage. This falls in line with the company’s recent acquisition of online training platforms through which it can retain and upsell these athletes (especially Gen Z cohorts) into higher value subscription tiers for sustained revenue growth and new subscriber acquisition. Yet it’s that cycling data which should worry the cycling industry and the sport in general; Strava was built on cycling, and while it hasn’t abandoned the activity, it is no longer the primary driver. Strava still has many longstanding cycling users, but growth has faded for a variety of factors, including the sport’s high cost of entry, seasonal participation, and competition from device manufacturers like Garmin that also host native interactive training and social media features.” HPS ANALYSIS: This article provides a very insightful picture of current consumer participation in cycling compared to running. Keeping in mind this is from the perspective of indoor training and competitive participation. It also highlights the current problem cycling has with the fit athletic market and fan base going forward. This reminds me of the importance of primary consumer research, and finding the resources to conduct this vital research as soon as possible in the coming pivotal year.

12 09 25: “Trend in focus: Fragmented global markets fuel supply-chain reboot.” Bike Europe: “The carefully knitted global network of bicycle component manufacturers, brands, assemblers, and distributors is under pressure. The industry is unable to regain control of the supply chain after major disruptions during the pandemic, in combination with an overestimated market potential. It is not only a self-inflicted problem, and finding solutions requires drastic steps. The industry has not been able to eliminate old stocks year after year. Inventory from 2023 and 2024 continues to be offered at bargain prices, causing a lot of pressure on the market. The situation of excess inventories has remained a significant concern for the industry since 2022. In this situation, innovations and new product introductions are held back while new orders for next year stay at a low level, as Bike Europe recently published in its Global Bicycle Purchasing Index. Nobody knows when this uncertainty will be over. U.S. free trade area is over: Unlike the EU, the United States maintained free trade in the import of bicycles and later e-bikes. Since the 1990s the North American bicycle industry has almost completely disappeared from the market during a massive relocation of the production facilities to Latin America first, and later to Asia. What was left in the U.S. were sales and marketing offices. Since the Trump administration took office this year, the U.S. government has been trying to enforce the reshoring of bicycle production through various counterproductive measures. The country’s main bicycle assembler, Kent Bicycles, was already forced to cease operations due to the high import duties on bicycle components on which Kent Bicycles relied. Changes in U.S. foreign trade policy caused a major shift in production locations in Asia. In recent years, bicycle assembly and accessory production have already been moved from China to Vietnam and Taiwan. The tariffs announced in April resulted in a significant drop in supplies from all three countries, forcing local manufacturers to seek markets outside the US. This shift was the next supply chain disruptor, resulting in price dumping. It was also the key factor behind the notable absence of U.S. product managers in Taichung. With these cascading disruptions, it is clear that a comprehensive fix for the bicycle supply chain remains, for the near future, a distant prospect.” HPS ANALYSIS: This Bike Europe article gets some of the facts wrong, at least in HPS’s opinion, but does highlight the important fact that the global industry has been unable to regain control of the supply chain, and that the U.S. era of free trade is over. Its conclusion that a comprehensive fix for the bicycle supply chain remains a distant prospect does not bode well for the bicycle business in the second half of this decade.

12 10 25: “Fed lowers interest rates but future cuts uncertain.” British Broadcasting Corporation bbc: “The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates for the third time this year, even as internal divisions create uncertainty about additional cuts in the coming months. The central bank said on Wednesday it was lowering the target for its key lending rate by 0.25 percentage points, putting it in a range of 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent - its lowest level in three years. But policymakers disagree about how the Fed should balance competing priorities: a weakening job market on the one hand, and rising prices on the other. The Fed's economic projections released on Wednesday suggest one rate cut will take place next year, although new data could change this. Fed chair Jerome Powell said central bankers need time to see how the Fed's three cuts this year work their way through the U.S. economy. Policymakers will closely examine incoming data leading up to the Fed's next meeting in January, he added. ‘We are well-positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves,’ Powell told reporters. Those hoping for interest rates to keep coming down, including President Donald Trump, might have to wait. The Fed is facing a ‘very challenging situation’ as it confronts risks of rising inflation and unemployment, Powell said, adding: ‘you can't do two things at once.’ The decision to lower rates on Wednesday was not unanimous, suggesting widening divisions among central bankers over the outlook for the US economy.” HPS ANALYSIS: The U.S. is facing a challenging situation as it confronts rising inflation and rising unemployment after lowering the interest rate, and signals that there might be only one rate cut during the coming new year. We will have to wait and watch, but HPS is concerned about the slow increase in inflation as the additional cost of tariffs is slowly seeping into consumer prices. This will continue to increase consumer costs into the first quarter and first half of 2026. Unemployment is growing for small businesses and will continue to grow during the first quarter and first half of the coming year, eventually overcoming the moderate unemployment of big businesses.

12 11 25: “Asian market slump overshadows Merida's stable performance in Europe.” Bike Europe: “Merida Industry Co., Ltd. reported an 8.5 percent year-on-year decline in consolidated revenue to NT$21.8 billion (€610 million) for the first three quarters of 2025, as weakening demand across Asia continues to weigh on the Taiwanese manufacturer's performance. Net profit for the parent company fell 18 percent to NT$1.44 billion (€39.5 million) during the same period, while earnings from associates, including Merida's stake in Specialized, contributed NT$511 million (€14 million). Though revenue fell overall, some markets were affected more than others. In Merida’s Asian markets — China, Hong Kong, and Japan — revenue collapsed from NT$9.3 billion (€256 million) in 2024 to NT$4.4 billion (€122 million) in 2025, a stark decline of over 50 percent. European revenue was much more stable, fluctuating only slightly from NT$4.5 billion (€125 million) last year to NT$4.8 (€131 million) this year. The Chinese road bike market has been under heavy pressure this past year, caught between a post-pandemic shake-out and sharp declines in consumer demand. What manufacturers hoped would be a temporary downturn has evolved into a deeper slump, with the effects still rippling through Asia. It’s not all bad news in the region, though, with the company’s home market still healthy. Revenue in Taiwan boosted to NT$15.7 billion (€433 million) this year, up 13 percent from NT$13.9 billion (€383 million) in 2024. Third quarter downturn: Merida’s first two quarters showed tentative progress, with a 0.9 percent year-on-year increase in cumulative revenue from January to June 2025 to NT$12.06 billion (€332 million). However, that quickly turned negative in the third quarter. From July through September, monthly earnings were steadily falling behind last year’s figures, ending at -8.66 percent. Early figures released for October and November show no change in the downward trend, with the overall negative outlook unlikely to improve for Q4. The gap between last year’s and this year’s figures is still widening, with November down nearly -10 percent. Zero-fee policy change not registered yet: Following the United States government’s embargo on Giant’s Taiwanese imports over labour conditions, Merida announced it would implement a zero-fee policy for migrant workers effective Oct. 1, 2025. The company also stated it would compensate workers for earlier recruitment costs, aiming to complete the reimbursement process by Oct. 25, 2025. These figures are absent from the third-quarter report but should appear in the company’s complete financial report for Q4.” HPS ANALYSIS: China is currently experiencing a deflationary cycle characterized by falling prices, weak consumer demand resulting in lower profitability for the Taiwanese, European, and North American bicycle brands and OEMs that have enjoyed steady to growing profits from doing business in China. HPS is advising that this deflationary cycle will have a negative impact on all the major bicycle brands.

12 11 25: “Mexico approves up to 50 percent tariffs on China and other countries.” BRITISH BROADCASTING CORPORATION BBC: “Mexican lawmakers have approved a package of new tariffs, impacting hundreds of products, many of which come from China. The measures, which President Claudia Sheinbaum has said are needed to boost domestic production, were passed by the Mexican Senate on Wednesday. The levies are set to take effect on 1 January 2026 and will apply to goods like metals, cars, clothing, and appliances. Dozens of countries that do not have a free trade agreement with Mexico will be affected, including Thailand, India, and Indonesia. The move comes as Mexico is in negotiations with the U.S. over steep import taxes that President Donald Trump has threatened to impose on the country. The measures will impose tariffs of up to 50 percent on more than 1,400 products. The levies will ‘substantially harm the interests of trading partners, including China,’ said a spokesperson for Beijing's commerce ministry on Thursday. An investigation into Mexico's trade policy is in progress, they added, urging the country to ‘correct’ its decision. This week, China also signaled its plans for more involvement with Latin American and Caribbean countries, as it aims to deepen its relationships in the region through trade and innovation. Chinese companies have been expanding their footprint in Mexico in recent years, with car brands like BYD and MG establishing operations in the country. But Washington has said Beijing may be using Mexico as a way to bypass US tariffs. The BBC has contacted the embassies in Mexico of Thailand, India and Indonesia for comment. Sheinbaum's government is in talks with the Trump administration as it tries to reduce tariffs on the country. They include 50 percent duties on Mexican steel and aluminium. Trump has also threatened to impose extra tariffs on Mexico for various reasons, including a 25 percent levy as part of Washington's measures to pressure countries to do more to stop the flow of the synthetic opioid fentanyl into America … The US is Mexico's largest trading partner.” HPS ANALYSIS: Based on the initial success of Chinese car brands like BYD and MG establishing manufacturing in Mexico, HPS was advising clients to consider Mexico for reshoring bicycle and e-bike manufacturing. The 50 percent tariff imposed by Mexico on these Chinese car brands is intended to reassure the U.S. that Chinese manufacturers are not going to establish viable sources of supply for sale in America. This will be applicable to other Chinese companies and all but eliminates Mexico as a potential for near-shoring bicycle and e-bike manufacturing.

12 12 25: “Bike imports down 24 percent year-to-date.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “U.S bike imports were down 24 percent in units and 16 percent in dollar value through September this year, according to new data released this week. Through the first three quarters, the U.S. imported 6.3 million bikes, down from 8.3 million over the same period last year. The import value was $667 million, down from $792 million. September imports from most countries declined steeply from recent months, with imports from China down 37 percent in dollar value from August.  Following the federal government shutdown, the Census resumed releasing import data last month with the August data. The latest release, for the September data, is about a month later than its normal schedule. The agency has not announced a full data release schedule.  HPS ANALYSIS: It is a fact that the American bicycle and e-bike market is import-dependent. Bike imports being down 24 percent YTD is a clear indicator of the effectiveness of tariffs and other import restrictions on the availability of product for consumption by U.S. consumers. Almost a quarter of the source of bicycles and e-bikes has been cut off and has not been replaced by any domestic production, and will not be for the rest of this decade.

12 12 25: “Importers Await Tariff Relief as Supreme Court Adjourns for Year.” BLOOMBERG: “Companies eager for relief from President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to have to wait until at least January. With the Supreme Court beginning a four-week holiday recess, the window has all but closed for a ruling this year on challenges to Trump’s sweeping import taxes. In the meantime, Customs and Border Protection is collecting billions each month from U.S. companies. Many of these importers, particularly small businesses, are increasingly passing the costs on to consumers as affordability emerges as a national concern. American companies paid $147 billion in tariffs on imported goods from March through September, according to new data compiled by Trade Partnership Worldwide. In September alone, the tally was $27 billion. ‘In what should be their busiest season, small businesses instead are struggling to pay unexpected bills, finance tariff costs through high-interest loans, and are making impossible choices between raising prices, cutting jobs, or closing their doors,’ Dan Anthony, the executive director of We Pay the Tariffs, said in a statement Friday. The group is a coalition of more than 800 small businesses from around the country. The Supreme Court held its last scheduled public session of the year on Wednesday and isn’t planning to sit again until Jan. 9. The court’s standard practice is to issue decisions in argued cases from the bench, generally a day or more after making a public announcement that opinions are likely. Arguments on Nov. 5 suggested the court was skeptical that Trump had authority to impose the tariffs under a 1977 law that gives the president special powers during emergency situations. Hundreds of companies including Costco Wholesale Corp. have sued the administration to ensure eligibility for refunds if the Supreme Court invalidates the tariffs. Trump’s trade war has unleashed wave after wave of uncertainty this year, causing many companies to curb hiring or halt imports altogether. A series of deals announced between the U.S. and its trading partners, and the recent agreement between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to extend a suspension on the highest tariffs have added volatility to the mix. Despite rising inflationary pressures, a recent survey of small businesses shows increased optimism about sales prospects over the next three months.” HPS ANALYSIS: With the Supreme Court adjourned nothing will happen until after January 9, 2026 on this.

12 16 25: “Rad Power Bikes files for bankruptcy protection.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “Rad Power Bikes filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Monday in advance of completing a sale of the company and less than a month after it said it could not afford a recall on some of its older lithium-ion batteries that the Consumer Product Safety Commission deemed unsafe. Filed in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Washington, Rad Power Bikes listed estimated assets at $32.1 million and estimated liabilities at $72.8 million. Its inventory of e-bikes, spare parts, and accessories is listed at $14,226,874.73. Top unsecured claims are: U.S. Customs and Border Protection for tariffs ($8,363,749), Bangkok Cycle Industrial Co. Ltd. ($5,353,674), Jinhua Vision Industry Co., Ltd. ($1,414,356), and Fuji-TA Fushida Group Area ($1,223,881) for trade; Commerce Insurance ($1,138,000) and Lisa Gore ($3,200,000) for subrogation; Steve Jay ($1 million) and Susan Luck ($1 million) for damages. Equity holders are founder Mike Radenbaugh (41.3%), VCVC V LLC (6.6%), Durable Capital Master Fund LP (5.8%), along with other minority holders (46.3%). ‘Rad Power Bikes has navigated an extraordinary period of challenge and change, even as our riders and community have continued to show up for us in powerful ways,’ a Rad Power spokesperson told BRAIN. ‘As we work to secure a sustainable future for the Rad brand, Rad has filed for Chapter 11 protection as part of a process to complete a sale of the company within the next 45-60 days.’” HPS ANALYSIS: While declaring Chapter 11 doesn’t necessarily mean the end, it is an ironic position for a new e-bike brand that entered the market in 2015, raised more than $300 million from investors in 2021, and was valued at $1.65 billion that year, making it a “unicorn” startup in the American bicycle business.

12 17 25: “Electric Bike Co. assets sale includes IP, custom-bike ordering site, tooling and more.” Bicycle Retailer and Industry News: “The assets of Electric Bicycle Co., which filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in October, are being sold this winter. They include the brand and other intellectual property, including a website that allows consumers to order custom e-bikes. The sale also includes inventory and manufacturing equipment. EBC sold more than 25,000 e-bikes during its time in business, which means there is continued market for repair and replacement parts, noted Laura Belmar, who is managing the asset sale.  The assets include the brand name and website domain name, which the company said retain value, as does a dealer network of more than 100 shops and tour companies. The IP includes product designs, colorways, the online customization engine, supplier relationships, customer lists, past-order history and marketing assets. The company's assembly equipment, paint shop, tooling, jigs, fixtures, wheel-building tools, completed inventory, and work-in-progress inventory are also being sold. The seller is now sharing details to potential buyers who execute a non-disclosure agreement. Indications of interest to buy will be due in early January and binding bids will be due in mid- to late January. If an auction is necessary with will take place in early February, with court approval and closing expected in mid- to late February.” HPS ANALYSIS: Of all the business models that emerged just before and during the pandemic, Electric Bicycle Company seemed to HPS as innovative and consumer centric as any e-bike brand could get. However, filing Chapter 7 is a reminder that even the best business model can fall victim to bad management and/or bad management decisions.

12 17 25: “Giant advances labour overhaul as wider Taiwanese industry joins the charge.” Bike Europe: “Giant has made significant progress toward repairing its relationship with the United States in the aftermath of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection's (CBP) embargo on shipments from the company's Taiwan factories. In the meantime, outside of Giant's facilities, an even larger change is taking place. Giant has completed refunds to all current migrant workers for their recruitment, agency service and government fees accrued during the hiring process. The company is also ‘pursuing swift Withhold Release Order (WRO) modification’ to begin U.S. shipments again, it stated in a December 2025 update. The CBP announced in September that it would detain and withhold all shipments of bicycles, bike parts and accessories manufactured at Giant's Taiwan facility based on evidence indicating forced labour. The WRO followed an explosive report about alleged labour rights violations and came as a shock to the wider Taiwanese industry. Industry campaign: In response, the Taiwan Bicycle Association announced plans to promote supply chain due diligence. In late 2025, it was successfully subsidizing 50 member companies to ensure compliance with Taiwan’s labour regulations. The trade organisation said that aligning with international labour regulation standards is the only way that Taiwan’s bicycle businesses can achieve long-term stability.” HPS ANALYSIS: Giant Global Group (GGG) has done everything it can, at least as HPS sees it, to engage with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to get the Withhold Release Order (WRO) filed in September of this year removed. The WRO applies to bicycles and e-bikes produced by GGG in Taiwan under its trade names and for OEM customers. HPS has stated that we believe that CBP and the Commerce Department are doing everything they possibly can to making importing products into the U.S. as difficult as they possibly can. Accordingly, the WRO has been in full force and effect from September 2025 through December 2025, with no indication as to when it will be lifted. GGG and the Taiwanese government are doing everything they can in this regard and HPS hopes they are close to resolving this case.

12 17 25: “The prosperity gap between big and small businesses.” Bloomberg: “America’s corporate landscape is taking on the same distinctive K-shape as the country’s consumer market. The relentless profit and stock gains on Wall Street are bypassing Main Street, where an increasing number of small businesses are struggling. High interest rates coupled with President Donald Trump’s zigzagging trade policies are depressing employment and stalling sales at the nation’s 36 million small businesses. There’s less data for this universe of companies than there is for publicly listed ones, but look here and there, and you’ll see signs of distress. Small business bankruptcies are ticking up, while loan delinquencies are at multiyear highs. ‘We’re heading into our most critical season not with optimism but with fear,’ says Gabe Hagen, the owner of Brick Road Community Corp., a coffee roaster in Tempe, Arizona, facing rising import costs and, more recently, cautious consumers. ‘Fear that our customers can’t afford to spend, fear that policy failures are crushing our ability to compete and fear that we won’t survive another year of this economic squeeze.’ Although the larger U.S. economy has surprised experts with its ability to keep chugging along despite high credit costs and the uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs, the consumer market has bifurcated in a way that many find unsettling. Buoyed by surging stock valuations, the top 20 percent of earners are responsible for almost two-thirds of consumer spending, a record, while the bottom 80 percent account for a little more than one-third, a Moody’s Analytics analysis of data from the second quarter shows. Economists are starting to note a similar divergence between the fortunes of small and large companies. In November’s employment report by ADP Research, companies with fewer than 50 employees shed 120,000 jobs, the largest one-month decline since May 2020, even as those with 500 or more employees added 39,000 positions. ‘It is those mom-and-pop, Main Street companies, firms, small businesses and establishments that are really weathering what is an uncertain macro environment and a cautious consumer,’ Nela Richardson, the chief economist at ADP, said in a call with reporters. ‘I see them as a canary in the coal mine.’” HPS ANALYSIS: It should come as no surprise that the profit and stock gains of big business in America are bypassing the 36 million small businesses that have 50 employees or less. It is becoming clearer that this bifurcation is growing across the employment / unemployment numbers, bankruptcy filings and passing on the cost of tariffs in consumer prices. The American bicycle business consists mostly of small businesses, and it is truly “a canary in the coal mine.” 

12 18 25: “When big names aren't enough: the quiet exit of Porsche and Pon in P2 eBike project.” Bike Europe: “Two heavyweight names from the e-bike and automotive industries have failed to successfully launch a new e-bike brand. Soon after Porsche AG and Pon Holdings established the joint venture P2 eBike GmbH in 2022, investors openly stated that creating a new e-bike brand was not the best way to move forward in the industry. The P2 eBike project was initiated to develop Porsche-branded e-bikes. In her statement, Scharler talks about ‘other projects that best support the long-term goals of the partnership,’ without elaborating on what these are. Regularly reviewing joint activities is common in joint ventures and usually reflects a shift in priorities. The decision was made on rather short notice as new marketing staff were hired just a few months ago. Changes at Pon Group and Pon.Bike: It is less clear what Pon’s priorities are in this case. This decision to discontinue the P2 e-bike development follows a series of top-level management changes, which also directly involved Pon.Bike. After a 25-year career, during which 15 years were spent as CEO, Janus Smalbraak resigned from Pon Group to pursue a new professional challenge. Smalbraak was a known avid cyclist and during his era, Pon entered the bicycle industry with the takeover of Gazelle. Janus Smalbraak is succeeded by Volkswagen Financial Services AG CEO, Christian Dahlheim. It isn't just Janus Smalbraak who has left the Pon Group; also the CEO & SVP of Pon.Bike, Anya Haarhoff, left the company last April after serving for just 14 months. Finally, the managing director of the Pon.Bike factory in Germany, Marjam van Coillie, left the company earlier this month. How these management changes will affect Pon’s activities in the bicycle and e-bike business, including the joint venture with Porsche, remains unclear.” HPS ANALYSIS: We have already covered one article about changes in Pon management and HPS thinks it advisable to let its clients and newsletter readers know about Porsche and Pon Holdings abandoning the P2 e-bike project announced in 2022. Pon made a very big splash on this side of the pond when it entered the bicycle and e-bike business and quickly expanded into the bike shop business with the acquisition of the Mike’s Bikes chain of bike shops, which it quickly expanded through more acquisitions. Something is rolling around with Pon Holding, that will impact Pon.Bike in some way, and the question is how significant will the impact be?  

12 19 25: “China's grip on US bicycle market weakens in 2025.” Bike Europe: “The number of bicycles imported into the United States in the first nine months of 2025 dropped 23 percent year-on-year. Looking specifically at China, imports from there have dropped by 40 percent amid tariff uncertainty throughout the year. Taiwan and Cambodia have made volume gains of 10 percent and 83 percent respectively. The latest import data provided by the U.S. International Trade Commission shows that the face of the U.S. bicycle market is already changing as a result of President Trump's 'America First' nationalist policy. The ongoing instability as U.S. trade policies shifted throughout the first nine months has had a significant effect on the number of bicycles being imported into the country. Particularly as China is historically the main supplier of bicycles to the U.S..” HPS ANALYSIS: This seems inevitable. The weight of Section 301 U.S. tariffs, and the “stacking” application of multiple tariffs all have had their effect on Chinese bicycle and e-bike exports, including the American bands that have resourced. The problems are significant and multiple, including how automated and efficient the Chinese manufacturers have become and how efficient the in-country logistics and ocean ports have become. But that’s all in the recent past, in 2024. Because in 2025 the United States has walked totally away from global free trade and launched restrictive protective tariffs on the goods and merchandise imported into the country. This has totally uprooted the sourcing and importing programs and systems, the whole ecosystem that had been established over almost 40 years of the American bicycle and e-bike business becoming import dependent, and forcing it to stare at domestic manufacturing.

Contact Jay Townley: jay@humanpoweredsolutions.com